War & Conflict Archive

On Oct. 18, the foreign ministers of Niger and Nigeria signed a defense pact in Niger’s capital, Niamey, establishing joint border patrols along their 930-mile border. The pact also envisions infrastructure projects, including road construction and potential rail links to connect the two countries, as well as renewed efforts to re-demarcate the border. President Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger announced the deal in a French-language Twitter post on Oct. 24, declaring that, from now on, “whoever attacks Niger, attacks Nigeria.” In the communiqué launching the pact, both countries’ heads of state, Issoufou and Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, expressed their concern about […]

Rarely a week passes without a grim new article, op-ed or newspaper story warning us that al-Qaida is mounting a comeback. Retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane, for instance, recently declared that al-Qaida is “seeking to take advantage of the opportunities posed by revolutionary change throughout the Middle East” and is “on the rise.” Writing for the Wall Street Journal, the RAND Corporation’s Seth Jones argued that, with the Obama administration turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific region, al-Qaida is pushing into the political vacuum created by the Arab Spring and “riding a resurgent wave as its affiliates engage in […]

Since it was founded in 1982, in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution and in reaction to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah has been many things: a terrorist group, a sectarian militia and, most recently, a legitimate political actor in Lebanon. Today, the so-called Party of God faces challenges on all sides. Its archenemy and raison d’être, Israel, is as strong as ever; its Syrian and Iranian patrons are struggling; and a regional Sunni ascendancy threatens its regional popularity and domestic legitimacy. At near-peak strength just a few years ago, Hezbollah now finds itself in dangerously uncertain waters. Hezbollah has […]

A splinter group of Darfur’s rebel Justice and Equality Movement announced this week that it would implement a cease-fire and enter into talks with the Sudanese government, scheduled to be held in Doha. In an email interview, Eric Reeves, a professor at Smith College and the author of “Compromising with Evil: An Archival History of Greater Sudan, 2007-2012,” reviewed the current state of violence and humanitarian efforts in Darfur. WPR: What is the current state of hostilities — what groups are engaged, and how extensive is the current level of violence? Eric Reeves: Violence is pervasive in Darfur, although it […]

A car bomb killed at least eight people Friday in Beirut, Lebanon, including Wissam al-Hassan, the country’s head of police intelligence and one of the more powerful opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Hassan’s assassination threatens to further polarize a country where tensions were already running high due to the civil war next door. Julien Barnes-Dacey, a senior policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Trend Lines that while the Syrian conflict is clearly exacerbating divisions within Lebanon, until now, the country has shown a greater degree of […]

KAMPALA, Uganda — Following months of heated exchanges between international observers and Rwandan officials, a United Nations investigative body leveled its most detailed and controversial accusations over alleged Rwandan support for the Congolese M23 rebels in a 44-page report leaked late Tuesday. The document claims that Rwandan Defense Minister Gen. James Kabarebe exercises direct command over the rebel group. Formerly integrated into the Congolese army, M23 launched a mutiny in April, carving a significant swathe of territory out of the volatile, crisis-prone eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo ever since. The Ugandan government is also implicated in […]

With the endgame near for large-scale U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, Americans have already begun to debate the broader implications of the conflict. Many have painted it as a failure, even a strategic fiasco. But it is not. Given the dynamics of the conflict and its wider strategic context, Afghanistan should be considered a win, albeit one that came at a much greater cost than was necessary. In the emotional turmoil following the Sept. 11 attacks, there was little consideration of the ultimate strategic goals of a U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan. The focus was instead on destroying al-Qaida and […]

Last month, I had the opportunity to spend a week in Uzbekistan meeting with government officials, think tank researchers, university faculty and other members of the country’s national security community. We shared frank assessments on Uzbekistan’s relations with Russia, China, Afghanistan and other neighboring countries, as well as with the United States. Judging by the size of its population and the strength of its military, Uzbekistan is potentially the most powerful of the five Central Asian countries. In addition, its pivotal location bordering all the other Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan give Uzbekistan great geopolitical and economic importance […]

The debate over U.S. drone strikes against militants in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has risen in intensity over the past few weeks, following a highly critical report on the strikes’ impact on the region’s civilian population as well as last week’s anti-drone “peace march” to the FATA. However, the focus on drones is unhelpful and legitimizes a narrative that mischaracterizes the real problems in Pakistan. The use of drones is a reaction to militancy that is the product of historical and systemic failures in governance in Pakistan. By making drones the focus of attention, Pakistani institutions can evade […]

ABIDJAN, Côte d’Ivoire — Last week, five suspects appeared at Abidjan’s Palace of Justice for the opening of the first trial related to Côte d’Ivoire’s recent bout of postelection violence. The conflict, which began after former President Laurent Gbagbo refused to step down despite losing the November 2010 election to current President Alassane Ouattara, claimed at least 3,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands. Eighteen months after the power struggle ended with Gbagbo’s arrest in April 2011, persistent political divisions have largely thwarted efforts at national reconciliation. The beginning of the justice process is seen as a potential catalyst for […]

Over the weekend, the Philippine government announced that it had reached a framework agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front to end the separatist insurgency the rebel group has waged for decades in the southern Philippines. As reported by the New York Times, Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III said the framework agreement “paves the way” for peace and represents a major step toward ending the conflict in Mindanao, a predominantly Muslim island in the only predominantly Christian country in Asia. In an email interview with Trend Lines, Steven Rood, the Asia Foundation’s country representative in the Philippines and an […]

As the civil war in Syria becomes more acute, the United States must reassess its strategy toward that key Middle Eastern state, in particular, its stance on the role that Saudi Arabia has been playing in the Syrian conflict. Continued Saudi influence in Syria will only further destabilize the situation on the ground, undermine U.S. interests in the region and dim the prospects for a future democratic Syria. In the wake of the Bush administration’s interventions in Afghanistan and, more disastrously, in Iraq, the Obama administration has been circumspect in its involvement in the Middle East. It has lent rhetorical […]

AL BAB, Syria — There is clearly something improvised about the courtroom scene: The prison guard wears civilian clothes and holds an assault rifle. He and a prisoner pose with a wide grin for a visiting photographer. The court sits in a simple office room, in a building whose courtyard has been partially damaged by bombardment. Yet this is very much government in action. With a 48-member council, a “council manager” (elected for a one-month term by council vote) and a criminal court, civic government is reasserting itself in this northern Syrian city of about 180,000 people after rebel fighters […]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a report yesterday titled, “Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition.” Although the report focuses on the political problems that Afghanistan faces, the country’s security, economic and diplomatic challenges are perhaps even more serious. According to the ICG, “Afghanistan is hurtling toward a devastating political crisis as the government prepares to take full control of security in 2014.” The group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, Candace Rondeaux, details how the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) are “overwhelmed and underprepared for the transition,” even as Afghan President Hamid Karzai “seems more interested in perpetuating his […]

A day after a deadly mortar attack from Syria killed five civilians in the Turkish border town of Akcakale, the Turkish Parliament on Thursday authorized further military action against Syria, with a measure allowing for crossborder raids. Media coverage of the motion, which authorizes strikes on Syrian targets, has warned that Turkish military involvement could turn this civil war into a regional conflict that would inevitably draw in the international community. But while today marks the second day of Turkish shelling within Syria, Turkish government officials have insisted that the new legislation is not a mandate for war, but rather […]

The global landscape has been scarred for decades by conflicts that defy both the passage of time and the efforts of armies and diplomats — conflicts that at times seem so intractable as to appear impossible to solve. That is why it’s worth pausing to take note of a momentous, in fact, astonishing, development that has taken place in recent months: Three of the world’s most durable, deadly and stubborn conflicts appear to be coming to an end. The progress in resolving the decades-old conflicts in Somalia, Sudan and Myanmar will undoubtedly give rise to countless claims of credit. These […]

With global attention fixated on Iran’s nuclear program, an equally significant development for Iran’s strategic outlook is being overlooked. The Shiite Crescent that began to take shape in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq has effectively receded. Regardless of the outcome of the nuclear issue, Iran poses a much smaller threat to the region than it did just a few short years ago. A number of events have converged to put Iran back in the box it now finds itself in. The most obvious and consequential of these are the onset of the Arab Spring and the […]