War & Conflict Archive

Does the U.S. genuinely want its European allies to police their geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. Last week, the Obama administration signaled that it intends to set the diplomatic pace over Syria as the U.S. and Russia announced joint plans for a peace conference. This was not only an accommodating gesture to the Russians—who, as I argued in this column last week, have made immense political capital out of the conflict—but also a setback for Britain and France, which have agitated for a more hawkish Western line, including arming the […]

The United States and Russia have announced a diplomatic initiative that would bring together representatives from the Syrian regime and opposition forces to negotiate a framework to end the Syrian conflict. Russia previously demonstrated little desire to help forge an agreement between the Syrian regime and opposition, but now seems committed to current efforts to form a transitional government. David Hartwell, principal Middle East and North Africa Analyst at IHS Jane’s, emphasized that the current round of diplomacy is significant as much for relations between the U.S. and Russia as for Syria. “If this entails Americans and Russians working very […]

When Israeli missiles struck Syrian facilities on May 3—an operation that Israel has not officially confirmed but is widely believed to have carried out—they showed the results of a cost-benefit analysis whose arithmetic yields clear results. Since the explosions shook Damascus, Israel has gone to great lengths to assure the Syrian regime and others that it has no interest in becoming embroiled in the Syrian civil war. Israel’s concerns, and the military strikes, focus on another enemy, namely Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia that is a close ally of Iran, an avowed enemy of Israel and the source of thousands […]

When the Cold War ended in 1991, the U.S. military assumed it would no longer be involved in counterinsurgency. The subject was dropped from the curriculum of the military’s professional educational system. None of the armed services wrote new doctrine or developed new operational concepts. The only lingering attention was a handful of war games with sideshow insurgency scenarios. Then the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan forced the U.S. military and other government agencies to relearn counterinsurgency. The military wrote new doctrine and rebuilt its educational curriculum. Intelligence agencies refined their insurgency-focused analytical tools. Even the State Department and U.S. […]

As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China’s resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. North Korea’s Threat North Korea Gambles on Strategic AssumptionsBy Nikolas GvosdevApril 5, 2013 Even If It Fails, […]

If you take any interest in the Syrian war and international diplomacy, you may well experience a disturbing sense of deja vu this week. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow. His visit is part of a renewed American campaign to make Russia rethink its strategy of support for the regime in Damascus, which could culminate in talks between Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin at the June G-8 summit in Northern Ireland. Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts to win over the […]

There has been a great deal of talk in U.S. foreign policy circles about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve in recent days. Much of it has revolved around the emerging evidence that chemical weapons, namely sarin gas, may have been used in the Syrian civil war, which drew attention back to the Obama administration’s declarations in 2012 that the use of unconventional weapons could be a trigger for American intervention in that conflict. The sarin discussion came on the heels of a brief controversy surrounding allegations made by Chinese dissident Chen Guangchen that the Chinese government was […]

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged earlier this week in the clearest terms to date that members of his Shiite organization, the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon, are helping President Bashar al-Assad fight the opposition in neighboring Syria. On Tuesday, in a televised speech, Nasrallah said Hezbollah would stand by the Syrian president and would not allow the country to “fall into the hands” of the United States, Israel or jihadi extremists. Two experts who spoke with Trend Lines agreed that while the speech broadly reflected the dynamics on the ground, Nasrallah’s characterization of Hezbollah’s role in Syria […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on Tuareg politics in northern Mali. Part I examined the factors shaping internal political development among Mali’s Tuareg community. Part II examines the factors shaping external relations among Mali’s Tuareg, the Malian government and France. French forces are drawing down in Mali, with Paris claiming that much of their work fighting Islamists and terrorists in the Sahara desert is done and can now be left to the Malian army and its regional allies. An African Union force will be securing much of the territory regained from Islamist extremists until a […]

At the end of last year, visiting Kenya under the auspices of a Stimson Center development and transnational security project in East Africa, I met Baraka, a 2.5-ton black rhinoceros that, despite being completely blind, is truly lucky. Baraka, whose name means “blessings” in Swahili, lives in a 100-acre safeguarded part of Kenya’s Sweetwaters National Park on the foothills of Mount Kenya. There he mingles with visitors, whom he allows to both pet and feed him. Though rhinos are a naturally aggressive species, Baraka seems to think he has no natural enemies. Perhaps he would feel differently if he knew […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on Tuareg politics in northern Mali. Part I examines the factors shaping internal political development among Mali’s Tuareg community. Part II will examine the factors shaping external relations among Mali’s Tuareg, the Malian government and France. The crisis in Mali put the Malian Tuareg community at the center of international security concerns. But for all the attention that the “desert warriors” behind the armed uprising in northern Mali have received, little effort has been made so far to develop an understanding of the internal politics of the Tuareg community and […]