Talabani was unable to convey his views about the referendum held Sept. 25, but one can speculate that he would have tried to manage the process with a bit more finesse than either the Kurdish regional president, Masoud Barzani, or the Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, demonstrated. Those two were unable to find a way to avoid escalation and are now trying to walk back a dangerous standoff where Baghdad has taken tough measures to punish and isolate the KRG. Talabani’s funeral and a period of mourning may provide the needed opportunity for Iraqi Arab and Kurdish figures to meet and find a more conciliatory path forward. In other recent and current cases of secessionist movements, the quality of leadership has often made all the difference to whether an expression of self-determination causes major disruption and violence, or not. Catalonia stands out for the way its referendum led quickly to extremes, with the regional president, Carles Puigdemont, ready to declare independence unilaterally, after the aggressive behavior of Madrid’s forces who intervened to prevent the voting Oct. 1. But forces from the middle—namely, Catalans who still prefer to remain part of Spain and mostly did not participate in the recent vote—are starting to raise their voices, and they may help the overwrought politicians find a way out of the crisis, at least for now. Contrast that to the Scottish referendum in 2016, the legitimacy of which was accepted by the central government in London, and where citizens were exposed to arguments on both sides before voting. Then-Prime Minister David Cameron’s slogan of Better Together, along with statistics about taxes, benefits and access to the European Union should Scotland secede, persuaded a majority of voters to leave things as they are. Likewise in Quebec, voters have been given a chance to express their preferences, and separatists have been able to translate failed efforts at independence in 1980 and 1995 into more concessions from Ottawa on biculturalism and the use of the French language at the federal level. Steve Saideman, a professor at Carlton University, has studied separatism and concludes that, contrary to a visceral belief that separatism is spreading and many nation states are potentially at risk, separatism is really not contagious. Activists in one country may try to benefit from the experience of others, but when the separatist impulse is driven by ethnic identity rather than ideology, it really only matters to those of the same group. He also concludes that referenda do not directly lead to the breakup of states, but rather herald a long bargaining process that can easily result in preserving the status quo, since states will work hard to maintain their integrity. That brings us back to the legacy of Jalal Talabani, a proud Kurd who understood a world where individuals have more than one identity and need not choose one at the expense of the other. He was not focused on ethnicity as the exclusive determinant of political affiliation. Rather he saw a multicultural, multiethnic Iraq as a worthy project, even as he experienced the lingering effects of dictatorship that destroyed trust among communities and made his task as president so challenging. The other cases reveal as much about the leadership qualities—or lack thereof—of those on both sides of the separatist charge as they do about the merits of separatists and their yearning for independence. Editor’s note: The original version of this article misspelled Steve Saideman’s surname. Ellen Laipson directs the International Security Program at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government. She led the Stimson Center from 2002 to 2015, and served in government for 25 years. Her WPR column, Measured Response, appears every Tuesday.Contrary to a visceral belief that separatism is spreading and many nation states are potentially at risk, separatism is really not contagious.
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