Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru looked crestfallen as election returns came in on Oct. 27, showing that his Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, and its coalition partner Komeito would fail to secure an absolute majority in the lower house of the Diet, the Japanese parliament. The LDP has dominated Japanese politics for all but four years in the postwar period, and it has led the government since returning to power after three of those years in opposition in 2012. Now, having lost the confidence of the public, it will lack a working majority, with implications for Japan’s regional and global role.
During the party’s most recent years of dominance under the late former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his successors, Suga Yoshihide and Kishida Fumio, the LDP-led government was able to use its political strength to exercise Japanese leadership abroad. This included promoting regional and global economic integration, as well as forging new partnerships with the U.S. and other regional powers through its existing bilateral security ties as well as new “minilateral” frameworks like the Quad—alongside the U.S., India and Australia—and the Squad, alongside the U.S. Australia and the Philippines. At the same time, the LDP strengthened Japan’s own defense capabilities as part of a broader effort to address a worsening security environment in the Indo-Pacific region.
At a time when many of its partners in the developed world were struggling with domestic political challenges that sapped their ability to face global security threats, Tokyo’s political stability enabled Japanese leaders to play a larger role on the global stage.