Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third term as Venezuela’s president today, nearly six months after fraudulently declaring himself the victor of Venezuela’s presidential election in July 2024. The inauguration comes a day after opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was briefly detained and forced to record several videos, although it is currently unclear by whom. (AP; New York Times)
Our Take
The cynical reading of Maduro’s inauguration is that it was always a foregone conclusion—that the multiyear efforts to turn last year’s presidential election into a democratic turning point for Venezuela were doomed to failure. But that reading overlooks the numerous historical precedents of using elections, even managed votes like the one in Venezuela, to force an authoritarian leader from power.
In this case, the optimistic view leading up to the vote in July was based on the belief that Venezuela’s opposition could win such an overwhelming victory that Maduro’s efforts to steal the election would become untenable, due to pressure from Venezuelans, the international community and even potentially within his own regime to respect the clear outcome. That plan spurred the opposition—and, indirectly, the U.S.—to negotiate with the Maduro regime, reaching an agreement that was meant to make the playing field for the election level enough to achieve that first condition.