Making predictions about the Middle East can be an exercise in futility. Just weeks before his ouster, for example, few if any analysts had “Assad flees Syria” on their radar. The same can be said for Hamas’ brutal assault on Israel in 2023, which shocked the region and upended its political dynamics. Could another “black swan” event emerge in 2025? At the very least, it seems to be possible, as the Middle East is full of brittle regimes, festering conflicts and ambitious external actors.
Such uncertainty underscores the need to constantly challenge assumptions. After the attack of Oct. 7, 2023, exposed Israel’s vulnerabilities, many predicted an irrepressible rise and strengthening of the “axis of resistance,” as the network of Iranian-backed allies fighting Israel and Western-aligned partners is known. A year later, the script has flipped, with Israel ascendant through its relentless use of military force in Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. The fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was the most stunning example of how the tables have turned, eroding Iranian—and Russian—power.
U.S. President Joe Biden was quick to claim credit for a new regional balance of power that seems to favor the United States. Such confident declarations about the Middle East are rarely wise. For one thing, Iran’s losses do not always amount to Washington’s gains. For another, the pendulum can shift again—and quickly. Those hoping for clarity in the emerging regional order are likely to be disappointed.