Since Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the term “unprecedented” has frequently been used to describe the current cycle of escalation across the Middle East. Whether it is the devastation of Gaza by the Israeli military that followed the attack, or the widening of hostilities to encompass Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and their backers in Iran, the sheer scale of the conflict has shocked many observers. Yet, far from being unprecedented, the lingering legacy of previous conflicts in the region still directly affect current tensions between Israel and its regional adversaries. A closer look at these precedents might help Western and regional policymakers better understand the challenges they face now.
Previous cycles of conflict involving Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinians between 1978 and 2006 can provide particularly useful insights into the long-term impact such conflict dynamics can have on the region. In several cases, external actors and regional powers were blindsided by the speed with which wars erupted despite growing signs that a fragile regional order was on the brink of collapse.
When it comes to understanding the motivations of various actors involved in such escalation cycles, the key mistake made by external policymakers has been to believe for too long that enough players on the ground had so much to lose from full confrontation that they would avoid it indefinitely. Before the attack of Oct. 7, for instance, policymakers in the region and beyond assumed that a broad enough swathe of the Palestinian leadership had a positive stake in the regional status quo to ensure a stable Middle East. This overlooked the willingness of figures like Yahya Sinwar—then Hamas’ top authority in Gaza who has now assumed overall leadership of the group—to risk personal and collective annihilation to inflict pain on Israel and return the issue of Palestinian statehood and self-determination to the regional agenda.