There’s probably some complex game theory calculations necessary to figure out if it makes sense to claim that the DPRK nuclear test was a failure even if it was a success. Then again, the actual seismic data is a matter of public record, and the calculations follow from that. Be all that as it may, according to the FAS’ Hans Kristensen, the initial Russian estimates of a 10- to 20-kiloton Hiroshima-type blast are wildly off the mark. Jeffrey Lewis agrees, putting it in the 2- to 6-kiloton range. That’s better than the .5- to .8-kiloton “dud” from 2006. (Was it really that long ago?) But as usual with the DPRK, things remain a bit opaque.
