WPR BlogMiddle East & North Africa

Opportunity Costs in the Middle East

This IHT article on how the Gaza War has kept Arab countries from progressing on other important issues in the region — including illiteracy, education, unemployment, and food and water supplies — reminded me that I’ve been meaning to write up a report from the Strategic Foresight Group titled, Cost of Conflict in the Middle East. The report (.pdf summary here) essentially does a detailed economic analysis of the opportunity costs of Middle East conflict, and I thought I’d pass on some of the eye-opening highlights from the summary they sent me:

– The countries in the Middle East that are directly involved in or affected by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, internal strife in Lebanon and the U.S. invasion of Iraq have lost a whopping $12 trillion dollars (in 2006 dollar value) in opportunity costs from 1991 to 2010.

– The opportunity cost has meant that the per capita income in these countries is less than half of what it actually should be. . . .

– There are more than 600 checkpoints in the West Bank. About 12 million man-hours are wasted every year due to check-points on the way to Ramallah.

– Israel has demolished almost 2,000 houses in Gaza and the West Bank.

– Israel lost $15 billion of potential tourism revenue from 2000 to 2006.

– More than 90 percent of Israelis live with a sense of insecurity.

– Environment has been harmed significantly due to oil spills, oil slick damage, and oil related pollutants. The First Gulf War emitted CO2 that was equivalent to 1.5% of the world’s annual emissions.

All of that’s in addition to the actual loss of life, as well as the degradation of living quality represented by diminished healthcare and education.

I’m not sure if the vision of how things could be is enough to get people to come to their senses. But the fact that the Middle East is not a prosperous global power center is one of the most prominent and enduring testaments to human irrationality that I can think of.

WPR BlogMiddle East & North Africa

Opportunity Costs in the Middle East

This IHT article on how the Gaza War has kept Arab countries from progressing on other important issues in the region — including illiteracy, education, unemployment, and food and water supplies — reminded me that I’ve been meaning to write up a report from the Strategic Foresight Group titled, Cost of Conflict in the Middle East. The report (.pdf summary here) essentially does a detailed economic analysis of the opportunity costs of Middle East conflict, and I thought I’d pass on some of the eye-opening highlights from the summary they sent me:

– The countries in the Middle East that are directly involved in or affected by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, internal strife in Lebanon and the U.S. invasion of Iraq have lost a whopping $12 trillion dollars (in 2006 dollar value) in opportunity costs from 1991 to 2010.

– The opportunity cost has meant that the per capita income in these countries is less than half of what it actually should be. . . .

– There are more than 600 checkpoints in the West Bank. About 12 million man-hours are wasted every year due to check-points on the way to Ramallah.

– Israel has demolished almost 2,000 houses in Gaza and the West Bank.

– Israel lost $15 billion of potential tourism revenue from 2000 to 2006.

– More than 90 percent of Israelis live with a sense of insecurity.

– Environment has been harmed significantly due to oil spills, oil slick damage, and oil related pollutants. The First Gulf War emitted CO2 that was equivalent to 1.5% of the world’s annual emissions.

All of that’s in addition to the actual loss of life, as well as the degradation of living quality represented by diminished healthcare and education.

I’m not sure if the vision of how things could be is enough to get people to come to their senses. But the fact that the Middle East is not a prosperous global power center is one of the most prominent and enduring testaments to human irrationality that I can think of.