Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.
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The ICJ’s middle-ground provisional ruling on whether Israel may be committing genocide in Gaza was not surprising given the specific difficulties of proving genocide. Still, to point out that the ruling falls short of what either party might have wanted would be to miss its wider implications that go far beyond the Gaza conflict.
China’s expanding economic footprint in Latin America over the past 25 years has driven economic growth and shifted the geopolitical narrative across the region. But that engagement is now shifting as priorities change in China, Latin America and the U.S., at a time when Chinese growth is slowing and U.S.-China tensions are rising.
Russia’s role in allowing Azerbaijan to conduct its final invasion on Nagorno-Karabakh last year, despite its peacekeeping role there, has sparked a profound sense of betrayal in Armenia. That in turn has created an opportunity for the EU to forge stronger ties with Yerevan and reshape the geopolitical orientation of the South Caucasus.
Is the United States’ era of global leadership over? From war to famine, the world is on fire and a lack of political will on the part of Washington is being blamed. But rather than demonstrating a lack of will, U.S. President Joe Biden can be seen as a savvy grand strategist who recognizes the new limits of U.S. power.
Ecuador’s grave security crisis could prove pivotal for the future of the country’s democracy. Similar crises across Latin American have created the temptation to toss out democracy as the cost of regaining security, as has been on most prominent display in El Salvador. For Ecuador, the stakes for could not be higher.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has abandoned the country’s long-standing policy of seeking peaceful unification with the South. This substantial change in Pyongyang’s inter-Korean policy should not be regarded as mere bluster or rhetoric. It marks a significant and dangerous shift in North Korea’s posture toward the South.
Efforts to explain why relations between Russia and the EU collapsed over the past decade have taken a closer look at previously neglected historical factors. But one development that perhaps represented the first step toward the current crisis between Moscow and Europe is overlooked: the Moldova-Transnistria war over 30 years ago.
East Africa has long been a region of great geopolitical importance and, as a result, the object of fierce competition. Now, recent developments, including Sudan’s brutal civil war and Ethiopia’s port access deal with Somaliland, have shone a spotlight on the United Arab Emirates’ influential role in regional affairs.
At a time when the global order is in flux, it is notable that the drivers of many of the core security challenges in the world today are not, in fact, states. From Hamas to the Houthis movement, to Taiwan and Kosovo, the world is dotted by “quasi-” or “de facto” states. What does that mean for the role of the nation-state?