Africa Archive

For observers and advocates of the International Criminal Court (ICC), the Feb. 26 U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on Libya (.pdf) was nothing short of a breakthrough: It marked the first time a decision to refer crimes to the ICC was backed by all members — including the United States, which has been openly hostile to the court for much of its existence. Three weeks later, the U.S. showed support for the ICC yet again, albeit less publicly. During informal talks at the Security Council on March 18, a Kenyan delegation lobbied for a one-year deferral of two ICC […]

Recent events in Libya have refocused attention on Libya’s remaining chemical agents, with particular concern over the possibility that Moammar Gadhafi will use them against the Libyan insurgents or against other targets, such as Western civilians. But there are also fears that the Libyan government could somehow lose control of some of the agents, whether due to ongoing domestic chaos or an eventual collapse of the regime, allowing terrorists to acquire them. Leaders of the coalition currently enforcing the U.N.-mandated no-fly zone over Libya need to adopt a strong declaratory policy against any misuse of these agents, even while they […]

Greg Scoblete responded to my argument in support of a military intervention in Libya, which he aptly dubbed the “Because We Can” standard, by questioning just what it is we think we can do: It’s important to recognize that intervening in Libya and bombing Gaddafi’s supporters is not the same thing as finding a politically acceptable end-state to the country’s rebellion — a fact that is being resolutely overlooked by most of the campaign’s supporters. So, yes, there are very low barriers to entry in Libya, which makes it attractive where a campaign against Bahrain or Burma is much less […]

I was invited to participate Friday on France 24’s panel discussion program, The World This Week. We focused primarily on Libya, where the actual initial air strikes had yet to occur, but the discussion holds up notwithstanding. Other guests included France 24’s own Nahida Nakad, the Sunday Telegraph’s Anne-Elisabeth Moutet and Bloomberg’s Craig Copetas. Part one is here. Part two is here. This is one of those rare times where I was able to coherently and effectively express everything on my mind, with no need for clarification or expansion. The only thing I’d add is that, while I have not […]

There are plenty of compelling arguments against the intervention in Libya. The fact that it takes place as President Barack Obama embarks on his first tour of Latin America highlights the way in which our disproportionate and outdated engagement in the Middle East distracts us strategically from what I consider to be more important priorities in our own hemisphere. The delay in taking action allowed for a broad if fragile multilateral mandate, but also probably reduced the likelihood that the intervention will be immediately decisive and thereby raised the risk of a drawn-out stalemate. I, for one, think we could […]

Thursday’s U.N.-sanctioned no-fly zone over Libya and the military strikes against Moammar Gadhafi’s ground forces that followed over the weekend may have come too late for Libya’s freedom-seeking people. Even a ceasefire or internationally imposed standoff between Gadhafi’s forces and the anti-government fighters in Benghazi and elsewhere would merely maintain the status quo, with Gadhafi remaining in control of most of the country. If so, Gadhafi will have demonstrated to autocrats everywhere that terror is an effective means of maintaining power at home and instilling uncertainty and fear abroad. This should come as no surprise, as Gadhafi is not new […]

Pulling back for a second from the debate over whether the U.S. should intervene in Libya, the process by which the actual international response unfolded is cause for optimism. Among the big-puzzle pieces that shifted, I see the following: – The U.S. as “law-abiding” global actor. President Barack Obama has already taken hits for indecisiveness and worse, but the fact that the administration held firm on multilateral mandates highlights its commitment to a multipartner world. – France and Britain as European security guarantors in the Mediterranean and Northern Africa. It remains to be seen how involved NATO will become in […]

When it comes to good governance in the information age, transparency has few competitors as the fix du jour. This is especially true when it comes to oil, gas and mining revenue in developing countries, where many people rightly consider transparency an essential first step in curbing government corruption. But the discussions at the “Transparency Counts” conference, held by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in Paris earlier this month, strongly suggest that knowing how much money is coming in to government coffers is not enough if that money does not improve people’s lives. Natural resources are hot right now, […]

Writing in his World Politics Review column this week, Thomas P.M. Barnett warned that the United States’ response to the Libyan uprising risks turning Ian Bremmer’s and David Gordon’s prediction of a “G-zero” world into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Specifically, Barnett argued that by failing to take the lead in organizing an intervention to tip the scales in the Libyan civil war on behalf of the opposition to Moammar Gadhafi, the Obama administration was “purposefully abdicat[ing] its global leadership role.” Another reading is that the administration’s reaction to the Libyan uprising reflects the degree to which it allowed itself to be […]

Contrary to what opponents of a military intervention in Libya are claiming, the U.S. is not at war with Libya. In fact, it’s very possible that the U.S. will not even be directly engaged in any eventual acts of war against Libya. And though endgames, outcomes and objectives are valid concerns and necessary considerations, much of the hand-wringing is premature. The U.N. Security Council resolution will allow outside powers to target Moammar Gadhafi’s air and ground forces to keep them from delivering the final blow that was all but imminent even as the council voted on the measure last night. […]

Editor’s note: This is the last of a five-part series examining security and development aid in East Africa. Part I provided an overview of the challenges facing East Africa. Part II examined the overlap between public health and security challenges. Part III examined the overlap between small-arms trafficking and WMD nonproliferation. Part IV examined the overlap between counterterrorism and efforts to contain criminal violence. Part V provides success stories for the security-development model and discusses next steps. In East Africa, pressing regional challenges — including the inability to detect and treat disease, the flow of illicit firearms across unsecured borders […]

Next week the United States will mark the 8th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq — widely considered one of the worst foreign policy disasters in American history. Meanwhile, more than 100,000 U.S. troops remain mired in Afghanistan, nine years after the Taliban were toppled from power. Both conflicts are daily reminders that the use of U.S. military force can have unforeseen and often unpredictable consequences. For that reason, force should be considered only in the most pressing of national security circumstances. Unfortunately, if the response to the uprising in Libya is any indication, it seems many members of the […]

While international attention is focused on Libya, violence has also erupted on the other side of Africa, in Côte D’Ivoire. Tensions have been steadily rising since the country’s incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, refused to step down after challenger Alassane Ouattara was widely recognized as having won November’s election. But intense gun battles erupted last weekend, when, according to the New York Times, forces loyal to Gbagbo began an assault to drive Ouattara’s fighters out of the Abobo district of Abidjan, the country’s financial capital. The escalation in the fighting has prompted roughly 200,000 people to flee the city, and raises […]

Editor’s note: This is the fourth of a five-part series examining security and development aid in East Africa. Part I provided an overview of the challenges facing East Africa. Part II examined the overlap between public health and security challenges. Part III examined the overlap between small-arms trafficking and WMD nonproliferation. Part IV examines the overlap between counterterrorism and efforts to contain criminal violence. Part V will provide success stories for the security-development model and discuss next steps. On July 11, 2010, bombs ripped through crowds gathered to watch the World Cup soccer final in downtown Kampala, Uganda, leaving 76 […]

The Arab League’s decision over the weekend to call for a no-fly zone over Libya is seen as a crucial measure of regional support for such an operation. Some have even argued that a Muslim country must be involved in the mission. In an e-mail interview, Yiftah Shapir, senior research fellow and director of the Military Balance Project at the Institute for National Security Studies, discussed the capabilities of Middle Eastern and North African air forces. WPR: Which countries in the Middle East and North Africa have significant air forces? Yiftah Shapir: There are two large air forces in the […]

For the authoritarian leader, holding onto power is both an art and a science. Much depends on crafting a strategy to deal with the unique social and political characteristics of a given country. However, autocrats also take cues from events in foreign countries and build their institutions accordingly. Many observers of global politics are watching China and North Korea to see if protests and unrest currently roiling the Middle East will spread there. The leaders of China, Myanmar, North Korea and other authoritarian states are watching North Africa just as closely, in order to learn what to expect next. One […]

What a difference a year makes. On March 14, provisional results announced by Niger’s electoral commissioner gave veteran opposition leader Mahamadou Issoufou the edge in a presidential poll widely hailed as free and fair and accepted gracefully by his defeated opponent, former Prime Minister Seini Oumarou. The election fulfilled the hopes and anticipations for a strong democratic showing from Niger, which had flirted with chaos after a military coup ousted President Mamadou Tandja in February 2010. Tandja’s desire to remain in office beyond his term was opposed by the armed forces, which had helped him assume power in the first […]