Asia-Pacific Archive

Joshua Foust argues at Registan that far from being a novel or promising step, Hamid Karzai’s recent offer to engage the Taliban in negotiations was a repeat performance and a sign of electoral desperation. He also argues that until we regain the initiative in the war effort, any negotiations with the Taliban will be a sign of overall weakness. That strikes me as about right, although I wonder whether we ought not think twice about the actual weakness that the oft-cited signs of weakness signal. Especially since our NATO allies are signalling that they’re on board for signalling weakness, which […]

Global arms sales continue to grow, according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), with the value of worldwide weapons contracts rising by an estimated 9.2 percent in 2007. The CRS put the value of major arms transfer agreements at almost $60 billion, up from $54.9 billion the year before. The United States accounted for over 41 percent of the sales, or approximately $24.8 billion, a significant increase from the 2006 figure of $16.7 billion. Russia still ranked second, but the value of its arms transfer agreements actually fell from $14.3 billion in 2006 to $10.4 billion in 2007. Conversely, the […]

Steve Clemons flags an interview with Andrew Bacevich and excerpts some highlights, of which this caught my eye: Advice on Afghanistan: pay attention to history. Effective governance has never been exercised from Kabul. Local tribal leaders have always run the place. That should be okay with us so long as Al Qaeda is denied sanctuary. We should provide incentives to local leaders so that they will see it in their interest to keep Al Qaeda out. This, along with a troop surge, adapted to the particularities of the Afghan conflict, seems to be the emerging consensus about how to deal […]

BURMA CONVICTIONS RAISE CONCERNS — Burma’s ruling military junta has come in for another round of criticism and condemnation over the recent convictions of participants in 2007’s pro-democracy demonstrations. On Tuesday and Friday of last week, authorities convicted a total of 60 activists on various charges, including forming illegal organizations and illegal use of electronic media, sentencing some to as many as 65 years in prison. Human rights advocates and world leaders have expressed concern about the trials, which represent a spike in the Burmese regime’s ongoing crackdown on dissent. U.S State Department officials openly challenged Burmese authorities in public […]

Regular readers of he blog will know that I’ve had my eye on Turkish foreign policy for a while. For one thing, Turkey’s emergence as a regional mediator demonstrates the power of maintaining good relations across the faultlines of conflicts (its so-called “zero problems” policy). For another, it serves as a model of what I’ve called “Middle Power Mojo,” or the use of regional middle powers to lighten America’s footprint while at the same time advancing its interests. Now a flurry of posts responding to Turkey’s offer to mediate between the U.S. and Iran — from Democracy Arsenal (Patrick Barry […]

I couldn’t agree with Ilan Goldenberg, writing at Democracy Arsenal, more. There’s this gathering meme out there suggesting that the way to deal with Europe’s positive reaction to Barack Obama’s election victory is to quickly get our partners to agree to unpopular American policy proposals to which they’ve been signalling their opposition very strongly. Just Monday, the head of the British Armed Forces, Gen. Jock Stirrup, expressed his opposition to redirecting British troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, citing an overstretched military. British public opinion is resolutely opposed to the Afghanistan War, calling for withdrawal within a year, and even Prime […]

Via the In Asia blog, the Burma cyclone, six months after. Despite the heart-wrenching stories, the takeaway leaves room for hope: Six months on, most of the initial logistical and political obstaclesto providing aid have been overcome. And the overall relief effort isshifting its focus from emergency response to longer-termreconstruction projects that will help restore the livelihoods ofpeople whose lives have been irrevocably altered by Cyclone Nargis. Without making any apologies for the Burmese regime’s handling of the cyclone, I think we can conclude that a humanitarian invasion would probably have done more longterm harm than shortterm good. The post […]

China opts for deferred maintenance on Tibet, and the projected cost of repairs immediately goes up. Between Taiwan and Tibet, the territorial sovereignty issue makes for a pretty brittle posture, with longterm and high-risk investments in both hard and soft power. Pretty steep price to pay for what amounts to pride.

In late October, U.S.S. Kearsarge, a 40,000-ton amphibious assault ship, arrived off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago laden with hundreds of doctors, nurses and engineers, and tons of medical supplies. The tiny developing country was the fifth stop in Kearsarge’s four-month tour of Latin America, advancing a new Pentagon strategy for creating security through good deeds. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates calls it “soft power” — and it’s all the rage in a military exhausted by five years of hard combat. The Navy’s three-dozen amphibious ships, with their extensive medical facilities, along with its two specialized hospital ships, are […]

A very smart take from MK Bhadrakumar in Asia Times Online on the potential bumps in the road for U.S.-India relations under an Obama administration. Interestingly enough, the Bush administration viewed India predominantly through the lens of China policy. Hence the emphasis on the U.S.-India nuclear deal. With Obama’s commitment to reversing the unraveling situation in Afghanistan, he is more likely to see India through the lens of Afghanistan policy. Hence his emphasis on resolving the Kashmir conflict with Pakistan. As for the nuclear deal, he very cleverly supports it, while pushing very strongly for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty […]

Nothing really out of the ordinary about the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s outlook on U.S.-China relations under the Obama administration. It did bring to mind the rocky start the Bush administration got off to with China. Despite the rough transition, though, China policy has been one of the highlights of the Bush foreign policy legacy, to the point that Tom Barnett suggests history might consider this, and not the failure in Iraq, as the outgoing administration’s lasting mark. It also made me wonder about the conventional wisdom by which all of America’s emerging rivals for global influence are waiting to pounce […]

Add China to the list of countries making inroads into Latin America (see Christina Madden’s WPR piece on Iran’s growing presence). The People’s Daily reports that trade is growing substantially across the region (up by roughly 50 percent). The details are thin, but there seems to be a two-way traffic of high-tech components being shipped from Latin America to China, with the finished products heading back the other way. Also interesting is that while country-by-country, China maintains a positive balance of trade, when taken across the region as a whole it’s pretty much a wash. (They actually import $2.5 billion […]

With the U.S. presidential election finally decided, attention has now turned to just how President-elect Barack Obama will handle American foreign policy. As a candidate, Obama often displayed the clearsighted vision of a foreign policy realist, while embracing the rhetorical flourishes of an idealist. In WPR’s latest biweekly feature issue, two prominent foreign policy analysts examine the challenges and opportunities that await The Obama Presidency. In Wilsonian Idealist or Progressive Realist? Nikolas Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, considers the kinds of “80 percent solutions” the Obama administration might be forced to consider, and whether it will be willing […]

One of the paradoxes posed by China’s rise has been the way in which increased economic expectations have not translated into increased demands for political liberalization. But is it possible that the financial crisis will liberalize China more than the past decade of growth? Here’s how the WaPo describes the stimulus package Beijing unveiled today: In a wide-ranging plan that economists are comparing to the New Deal,the government said it would ease credit restrictions, expand socialwelfare services and launch an infrastructure spending program thatwould include the construction of new railways, roads and airports. What’s striking is the expanded welfare services […]

The NY Times reports that since 2004, the U.S. military in conjunction with the CIA has been authorized by presidential directive to conduct targeted counterterrorism strikes and ground raids within 15 to 20 countries, including Syria and Pakistan, but also Saudi Arabia. I suppose there’s some news value in confirming this sort of thing, but I’m hard-pressed to feel surprised by it. On the other hand, a good part of the story here seems to be why this was leaked now, at such a sensitive moment of transition, and by whom. It seems like it ties the Obama adminstration’s hands […]

YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia — Early Sunday morning, the Indonesian government executed three men convicted of the 2002 Bali Bombings, ending a controversial period of postponements, court appeals and international media attention. Now, counter-terrorism officials and the public are braced for possible retaliatory attacks that the men — who operated under Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the al-Qaida-linked terrorist group held responsible for most of the bombings that hit the country from 2000 to 2005 — had promised. The 2002 Bali bombings killed over 200 people and remain the deadliest terrorist attack after 9/11. The executions, the first of Muslim extremists carried out under […]

How is President-elect Barack Obama planning to shape the foreign policy of his administration? Is he a Wilsonian idealist? A progressive realist? Some mix of the two? How Obama will define his foreign policy still remains somewhat of a mystery. Between now and when he actually begins his term of office, I expect that his rhetoric about U.S. foreign policy and America’s place in the world will become more expansive and lyrical. After all, this is to be expected. American chief executives traditionally use the post-election period, culminating in the Inaugural Address, as a time to appeal to our loftiest […]