The strategic and economic importance of the Black Sea region has made it the center of conflict for centuries, and several factors make it unlikely that it will suddenly find stability when the war in Ukraine ends. As a result, the EU and U.S. should be developing contingency plans to ensure stability in the Black Sea region now.
On Oct. 6, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Prague, as part of a new effort to normalize relations. A changed geopolitical landscape in the region has removed some obstacles to a rapprochement, but the current efforts could still be derailed by other stumbling blocks.
A renewed round of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan marks an alarming escalation of tensions between the historical enemies since the end of their war in November 2020. The attack is closely related to recent shifts in the regional balance of power, which even before 2020 had already become lopsided in Baku’s favor.
