Europe Archive

FRANCE PLUGS THE GAP — Why are four French Mirage 2000 fighter planes currently deployed at the former U.S. air base at Keflavik, Iceland? Answer: The French are plugging a gap in NATO’s North Atlantic defenses left by the U.S. withdrawal from Iceland in 2006. The Keflavik base controlled the so-called Iceland Air Policing Area designed to turn back Soviet long-range strategic bombers headed for U.S. airspace. Two years ago, the Pentagon closed the huge facility after almost 50 years because, in Washington’s view, it had become a relic of the Cold War. Moscow was quick to spot the hole, […]

Could the Lisbon Treaty somehow survive the Irish referendum that rejected it last week? That’s what the EU foreign ministers are trying to figure out in Brussels today and tomorrow. Opponents are calling the treaty dead, while supporters (like French President Nicolas Sarkozy) are trying to have it voted on by the eight countries yet to definitively pronounce on it. In the event it survives all eight, look for Ireland to be asked to hold a followup referendum on it towards the end of the year, with a major part of France’s EU presidency in the second half of 2008 […]

Today (June 15) the government of Kosovo will enforce the territory’s constitution, which aims to pass authority over the territory from the U.N. to the EU. The U.N. secretary general’s attempt last week to square this move with international law creates the potential for institutional conflict, de facto partition and prolonged insecurity over Kosovo’s status. The U.N. has administered the territory under resolution 1244 since 1999, when a NATO bombardment drove out Serbian forces brutalizing Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority. Serbia, with the backing of Russia, a U.N. Security Council member, have since resisted any move towards independence, with most Serbs […]

If you have an interest in French politics, you probably already know about Art Goldhammer’s blog, French Politics. It’s the most in depth and intelligent English language treatment of French domestic politics I’ve seen, equal parts policy analysis and cultural criticism. It’s also the principle reason I don’t spend more time writing about the subject here. Art also has a piece on Sarkozy’s foreign policy in e-International Relations which dovetails nicely with this week’s WPR series on the French strategic posture review. I’ve seen Sarkozy’s method referred to as that of an “avocat d’affaires” before (literally business lawyer, but with […]

Part I: Series Introduction Part II: NATO Reintegration and European Defense Part III: A Widening FocusPart IV: The Temptation of a Forward Defense Hubert Védrine was a diplomatic advisor and chief of staff to French President François Mitterand, and went on to serve as France’s foreign minister in the government of Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (1997-2002). He is the author of numerous books and articles on foreign policy and globalization, and leads a seminar on international relations at the Paris Institute of Political Science (Sciences Po). Over the course of a generous and wide-ranging interview, he offered World Politics Review […]

According to the Telegraph, the Irish government has now conceded defeat in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. This is pretty stunning, because the Lisbon Treaty was pretty much the last hope to get Europe back on track after what amounts to 12 years of paralyzed institutional construction. Ireland could conceivably be asked to conduct a do-over once the treaty is ratified by the rest of the member nations. But suffice it to say, I don’t think any of Europe’s foreign ministries are going to be taking the weekend off. I know there are a lot of Euro-skeptics, both in Europe and […]

America’s preoccupation in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has significantly undermined its influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Much has been written about how China has attempted to fill the “American void” in the Asia-Pacific and to reconfigure the region’s geopolitical architecture, but little attention is being accorded to Russia’s new power plays in the region, which, if not appropriately understood, will have tremendous consequences for American interests. Over the past five years, Russia has been slowly repositioning itself in the Asia-Pacific through arms sales, participation in regional venues like the Six-Party Talks concerning North Korea’s nuclear program, and energy exports. […]

Part I: Series Introduction Part II: NATO Reintegration and European DefensePart III: A Widening Focus PARIS — Any strategic posture review inevitably boils down to preparing for possible conflict, and the scenarios for potential intervention that were evoked in discussions with French officials and experts this past month reveal a great deal about the evolution in France’s vision of its global role. Some of the scenarios were anchored in the certainty of the past. Maj. Gen. Vincent Desportes, commander of the French Army’s Force Employment Doctrine Center, identified any situation involving significant numbers of French citizens as an automatic cause […]

Twenty-six Americans are presently being tried in absentia in an Italian court for the 2003 abduction of the Egyptian cleric Osama Mostafa Hassan Nasr: better known, as “Abu Omar.” The Americans are accused of having kidnapped Nasr as part of the CIA’s program of “extraordinary renditions.” They are supposed to have held him in an American military base before “rendering” him to Egypt for interrogation. Seven Italian intelligence officials who allegedly aided in the operation have been charged as well. Last month, the New York Times, Associated Press, and Los Angeles Times all ran stories citing in dramatic and sometimes […]

Part I: Series IntroductionPart II: NATO Reintegration and European Defense PARIS — In assessing the strategic environment to which the Livre Blanc, France’s strategic posture review, must respond, none of the French officials and experts interviewed by World Politics Review could really speak with much certainty. Taken together, the conversations we had gave the distinct impression that outside of the stable if evolving configurations of the European Union and the Atlantic alliance, France’s emerging strategic vision is driven more by questions than by answers. Russia’s determination to reclaim its former influence presents both opportunities for partnership and more alarming scenarios […]

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is pretty much right when he observesthat, given everything Ireland has gained from Europe, they’d be thebig losers should they vote ‘No’ on the Lisbon Treaty this Thursday.But as a friend of mine is fond of saying, being right is overrated.What’s worse is being right at the wrong time. As you already know ifyou’ve read Kevin Leahy’s WPR piece,the Irish referendum is pretty much too close to call at this point,and Kouchner’s remarks have poured a whole bunch of fuel on the ‘No’fire. France has been talking about taking a less arrogant tone for itsEU […]

Part I: Series Introduction PARIS — Since the time of Gen. De Gaulle, France’s posture towards the United States can be summed up in the familiar expression, “Friend, ally, non-aligned.” A source of French pride and American distrust, the formula has haunted France’s historically stormy relationship with NATO, and served as the geopolitical expression of l’exception française, France’s cultural identity of exceptionalism. It took on added significance since the emergence of the European Union, of which France was and remains a driving force. The need to balance its two principle relationships — one a strategic alliance with political implications, the […]

On June 12, Irish voters will go to the polls to say “yea” or “nay” to the proposed Lisbon Treaty to reform the workings of the European Union. To say that the Irish electorate has been unenthusiastic about the debate on this treaty would be an understatement. For one thing, a huge majority have not read this treaty. This is hardy surprising: A troupe of constitutional lawyers would be required to make sense of this dense, jargon-laden document, which cannot be read at all without reference to earlier, equally complex, European treaties. Ireland’s taoiseach, or prime minister, Brian Cowen, has […]

Although he is no longer Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin led the high-level Russian delegation that visited France beginning May 29. During his first visit outside the former Soviet bloc since becoming prime minister last month, Putin held talks with his counterpart, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, but also engaged in substantive discussions with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his predecessor, Jacques Chirac. Putin’s change of office has not apparently led him to change his views. He dismissed Western complaints about Russia’s human rights policies as political propaganda, claimed Russia could do little to arrest surging world oil prices, and warned […]

PARIS — Next week, a commission appointed by President Nicolas Sarkozy will unveil France’s eagerly awaited White Book on Defense and National Security. The product of months of reviews and fierce debate among France’s national security community, the Livre Blanc (as it is known) will largely determine France’s strategic posture and military procurement priorities for the coming 15 years. The direct impact of the commission’s findings will be felt principally within the French military. But in articulating France’s strategic orientation and tactical capabilities, their indirect effect will ripple outward, most immediately within Europe and the NATO alliance, but also beyond. […]

Russia may become a player in North American energy markets sooner than anyone expected. According to the June 7 edition of the International Herald Tribune: Gazprom has made a proposal to BP PLC and ConocoPhillips, which in April submitted a bid to build a multibillion-dollar pipeline that would carry natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to the lower 48 U.S. states, Gazprom director Alexei Miller said.”Gazprom has unique experience, knowledge and modern technology and is the most advanced company in the world in the realm of gas transport in trunk pipelines,” Miller told an international business forum in St. Petersburg, […]

Some reflections on the future of Russia-EU relations from Nikolas Gvosdev. As Gvosdev notes, France has been a strong advocate for harmonizing this relationship, but the attitude here among strategic thinkers seems to be that Russia is unlikely to be more than an important but occasional tactical partner for the near future. Neither friend nor enemy, a partner at times, and a problem at others. Of course, the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, depending on what it institutionalizes, could change that. But I get the feeling that the French view of Russia is more lukewarm than the official diplomatic posture might […]