Europe Archive

NOT IN HARM’S WAY? — About 150 U.S. military personnel had an almost ringside seat at the Russian sweep across Georgia between Aug. 8 and 12 — an airbase near the Georgian capital, Tibilisi. Military spokesmen in the Pentagon and in Europe told Corridors that the American troops had been involved in a just-completed large-scale joint U.S.-Georgian exercise but had remained behind when the fighting erupted. More than 1,000 U.S. soldiers and marines had taken part in “Immediate Response 2008,” designed to improve cooperation in combat situations between American and Georgian forces. The exercise ended on July 31, but members […]

On Sept. 8, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced the most concrete U.S. punishment of Russia for Moscow’s military intervention in Georgia. In a brief press release, she related that President Bush was rescinding the proposed U.S.-Russia Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation. She expressed regret at the decision, but described it as inevitable since, “given the current environment, the time is not right for this agreement.” Although Vice President Richard Cheney has denounced “Russia’s actions [as] an affront to civilized standards” and said they are “completely unacceptable,” the Bush administration had until this decision not penalized Russia so directly […]

A couple thoughts about Gov. Sarah Palin’s remarks about “war with Russia,” as they’re being reported: GIBSON: Would you favor putting Georgia and Ukraine in NATO? PALIN: Ukraine, definitely, yes. Yes, and Georgia. . . GIBSON: And under the NATO treaty, wouldn’t we then have to go to war if Russia went into Georgia? PALIN: Perhaps so. I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you’re going to be expected to be called upon and help. Greg Sargent makes the salient point at the same link as above: It’s worth […]

One country has already applied an arms embargo on Georgia before the Russians even presented their draft resolution to the UN Security Council. Nicaragua? Nope. Israel. Here’s Haaretz: The officials say the blanket directive was decided upon this week because Israel is concerned about damage to its relations with Russia. For the same reason, Israel decided to stop most weapons sales to Georgia even before the Russia-Georgia war last month. One of Israel’s primary concerns is that Russia could sell Iran advanced weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles. Israel had previously supplied drones and urban warfare training to the Georgian military. (That […]

When war breaks out, French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy is decidedly in his element. “BHL,” as he is known in France, made a first venture into his peculiar brand of literary war reporting as the self-appointed bard of the Bosniak cause during the Bosnian civil war in the early 1990s. This was then followed — in sometimes dizzyingly short order — by quick jaunts into war zones or areas of civil unrest in Algeria, Afghanistan (to visit Massoud), Sri Lanka, Burundi, Colombia, Southern Sudan and Israel (during the Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006), and even a brief foray into Darfur last year. […]

So just after I posted this morning about how a confrontational stance with Russia ignored the reality that we need their cooperation on a host of important issues, I got a call from Bob Gates thanking me for tipping the internal Bush administration debate in favor of a more realist approach. Seriously, though, I might have been too quick to characterize the Bush response so far as confrontational, since this is about word for word what I was arguing: Overall, the administration’s strategy reflects a desire to defend Georgia’s territorial sovereignty and its symbolic role as an emerging democracy, while […]

Following up on yesterday’s post about the costs of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, Richard Hainsworth has a great article in Moscow Times (via The Russia Blog) comparing market reactions to the conflict with the reaction to the American invasion of Iraq (barely a blip): Whatever the reasons or motivations for Russia’s invasion into the sovereign territory of another country, investors were not prepared for this unpleasant surprise. Their investment models did not include this factor. When U.S. troops go anywhere, they are accompanied by journalists, news conferences and public warnings. Investors may not like a military conflict and they may […]

Daniel Drezner makes a compelling case for the geopolitical and financial costs Russia has suffered due to its invasion of Georgia. Among the former, its embarrassing isolation as the only country (outside of Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua) to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Among the latter, the $21 billion that fled the Russian markets in the war’s aftermath. I agree that the decision to recognize the two breakaway provinces was a strategic error, both for the reasons Drezner identifies, but also because it wasted a pressure point the Russians could have saved for later. But I’m less convinced by an argument […]

Although widespread fighting in Georgia has ceased, the war’s diplomatic repercussions continue to ripple throughout the region. One major concern in Washington is that Russia’s successful military intervention in Georgia will intimidate other former Soviet republics to, if not bandwagon with Moscow, at least distance themselves from the United States to avoid antagonizing a newly belligerent Russia. It is therefore no accident, as Russian Prime Minister Vladmir Putin likes to say, that U.S. Vice President Richard Cheney visited Azerbaijan last week. Cheney travelled to Baku even before arriving in Georgia and Ukraine, whose governments have been engaged in more acute […]

ON THE MARGIN — As usual, Washington’s foreign ambassadors went to the two conventions in force. Though they pay their own way, they are officially guests of the political parties, which corral them into a assigned areas to witness the proceedings, limit their access to the delegates’ portion of the floor to a few group visits, and organize programs of activities outside the convention itself. At the Republican Convention this week, the ambassadors’ schedule (interspersed with the occasional policy conference) included a visit to an ethanol production plant in Winthrop, Minn., and a tour of Minnesota Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau’s […]

I’ve read some convincing arguments about how Russia’s invasion of Georgia was a strategic blunder. I find them most compelling with regards to the impact it will have on Russian relations with China, as well as with other countries that have a lingering problem with breakaway provinces. But the problem with these instant analyses (my own included) is that the impact of this kind of event takes time to play out, and depends as much on the conduct afterwards as on the actual event.I’m reminded of something a jazzman (I think it was Joe Henderson) said about “blue notes”: they’re […]

From Aug. 20-21, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi at the invitation of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Assad last visited Russia in late 2006, when he met with then Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the beginning of their Sochi meeting, Medvedev greeted Assad by remarking that, “We are grateful to Syria for its support on issues related to the well-known recent conflict with Georgia, which committed an act of aggression against South Ossetia.” Assad responded that, “we wish to once again express our support for the Russian position as regards the recent conflict and […]

As reported by the German wire service the Deutsche-Presse-Agentur (DPA) last week, the American Embassy in Berlin has announced that it will be holding a commemorative service on September 11 for the victims of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. This is hardly unusual. What is unusual, however, is that the service is co-sponsored by the Jewish Community of Berlin (an umbrella group of Jewish congregations) and will be held at the Centrum Judaicum at Berlin’s historic “New” Synagogue. Malte Lehming of the Berlin daily Die Tagesspiegel rightly asks: “Why?” The 9/11 attacks were, after all, attacks on America and Americans, […]

At an emergency Sept. 1 meeting in Brussels, European Union leaders adopted the unexpectedly stern stance of threatening to suspend negotiations with Moscow on a renewed cooperative framework agreement unless Russian troops withdraw from Georgia. The decision was amplified by the drama of the gathering, which represented the first emergency session of the EU heads of government, formally known as the European Council, since the beginning of the 2003 Gulf War. According to the statement of the Extraordinary European Council, “Until troops have withdrawn to the positions held prior to 7 August,” when they first intervened in Georgia, “meetings on […]

Advocates for a more punitive line will probably find the EU’s declaration on the Russia-Georgia crisis (.pdf) unsatisfactory. But as Christophe Barbier of l’Express notes in this French-language video editorial, Europe isn’t really in a position to “punish” Russia. He likens the situation to a virile negotiation or an arm-wrestling match, and judging from the EU’s declaration, that seems to be the approach the Union is taking: The European Council considers that given the interdependence between the European Union and Russia, and the global problems they are facing, there is no desirable alternative to a strong relationship, based on cooperation, […]

Via MDC at Foreign Policy Watch, Fareed Zakaria argues that Russia’s invasion of Georgia will go down as a major strategic blunder, an overreach along the lines of Afghanistan in 1979. I’m not so sure. It’s true that Russia’s heavyhanded approach has validated many of Eastern Europe’s worst fears, triggering a reflex lurch to the West. But Poland’s decision to accept the American missile defense system, which Zakaria links directly to the invasion, is more an acceleration than an about face. And as MDC points out, the trans-Atlantic unity that Zakaria claims the Russian invasion fostered is not uniform. In […]