Europe Archive

With Ukraine set to vote in the second round of its presidential election on Sunday, both candidates — Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych — have promised closer ties with Russia. Most foreign coverage of the campaign has focused on popular disillusionment with the Orange Revolution in particular, and with democracy in general, as the explanation for this dramatic shift since the heady days of 2004. Indeed, a survey of attitudes toward democracy in post-Soviet countries published by the Pew Research Center in November 2009 was sobering: The popularity of democracy had fallen in Ukraine by […]

“Iran engagement” is beginning to take on the attributes of kabuki theater, with all of the major participants engaging in pre-determined, stylized dance steps. The latest case in point is the announcement earlier this week by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Tehran is now open to some form of the scheme proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency last October, by which Iran would export its low-enriched uranium to France and Russia to be turned into fuel rods for its research reactor. As Howard LaFranchi reported, this “was received favorably by Russia, and it prompted Chinese officials to call for […]

In another UNCLOS-related story, the NY Times reports that Vietnam is increasingly trying to multilateralize its territorial disputes with China over the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Instead of negotiating bilaterally, Hanoi is pushing a collective negotiation between all the parties — Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei — that have conflicting claims. In the “Integrate but CYA” formula I’ve used to refer to Asia, this would be the “Integrate to CYA” correlary. There’s nothing terribly novel about a collection of weaker states banding together to counterbalance the influence of a more powerful one, and China is […]

After “lawfare,” it’s time to add “thawfare” to the lexicon of how to pursue politics by other means (especially since a quick Google scan indicates that I have indeed coined this neologism): Russia will invest some 1.5 billion rubles ($49.7 million) indefining the extent of its continental shelf in the Arctic in 2010, inorder to prove its right to more of the Arctic floor, the country’sNatural Resources Ministry has said. “These funds will be spent on additional hydrographic andgeophysical research in the Arctic Ocean,” the ministry said in astatement. For more background on what’s at stake in the Arctic as […]

Here are a few of this week’s highlights from WPR’s video section: – Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad returns to the negotiating table with a deal that makes some observers wary. WorldFocus discusses the warranted skepticism in this video. – Afghan farmers receive attention from the USDA as one of the United States’ top non-military priorities. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack briefs the press in this video. And agricultural initiatives can be seen at work in this video. – Secretary of State Hillary Clinton discussed positive developments in N. Ireland in this video. Our video section is updated daily. I’ll highlight […]

The Economist recently broke the news that NATO would soon develop contingency plans to defend Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania against Russian attacks. In an unexpected shift in policy, the new plans would mark the first time since the end of the Cold War that the Atlantic Alliance has specifically pinpointed Russia as a threat. NATO has been down this road before. In October 2008, Gen. John Craddock, then NATO’s supreme commander, asked the members of the alliance for permission to draft Baltic defense plans. But at the time, France and Germany disapproved, out of fear that it would compromise NATO’s […]

This WPR Special Report compiles news, analysis and opinion from WPR’s pages to provide insight into what some are calling the new “Great Game” — the political battle for influence and control over the production, sale and transit of oil and gas across Eurasia — from Europe to the Caucasus, to Iran, to South and Central Asia. Below are links to each article, which subscribers can read in full. Subscribers can also download a pdf version of the report. Not a subscriber? Subscribe now, or try our subscription service for free. South Asia, Iran and the IPI Pipeline Pipeline Politics: […]

No sooner did I click the “Publish” button on this post than I ran across the following, from Financial Times: Britain is calling for enhanced military co-operation between the UK and France, saying greater defence collaboration with the European Union may be essential if the nation’s armed forces are to operate on a reduced budget. Ina green paper to be published today that sets out the terms on whichBritain will conduct its forthcoming Strategic Defence Review, theMinistry of Defence will reassert that no military alliance is moreimportant to the UK than the one with Washington. Butthe document, drawn up by […]

The Obama administration gave another indication on Monday of its indifference toward Europe by advising the Spanish government — as the current holders of the European Union’s rotating presidency — that President Barack Obama will be a no-show at the next E.U.-U.S. summit in Madrid this spring. Obama’s decision was “a setback for the Spanish government,” observed the newspaper El Pais, “a reversal for the European Union, and a clear message of the [Obama] administration’s international priorities.” Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was counting on the ever-popular Obama’s visit to Spain to bolster his own sagging poll numbers […]

On Jan. 29, a Russian pilot conducted a test flight of the first warplane entirely designed and built by Russian companies since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. The plane, formally known as the Prospective Aircraft Complex of Frontline Aviation (PAK FA), is manufactured by the state-owned Sukhoi aircraft corporation. Russian sources describe the PAK FA as the first fifth-generation multi-role fighter/attack warplane built outside the United States, but some analysts doubt it meets that category’s criteria. “Fifth-generation” warplanes have stealth characteristics, making them almost invisible to conventional radars. These attributes include using composite materials, emitting reduced engine heat, and […]

Early this past January, Turkey’s ambassadors from around the world gathered in Ankara for their annual meeting. The five-day gathering had the usual elements of gatherings from previous years: the seminars and debriefings, and the traditional group visit to the austere mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey’s secularizing founder. But there were also some significant differences this time around. Turkey’s foreign policy profile has increased dramatically in recent years, and the ambassadors’ meeting coincided with visits to Ankara by the Japanese, Brazilian and German foreign ministers, all of whom addressed the Turkish envoys. Turkey’s top diplomats were treated to […]

BONN, Germany — Since the conservative Free Democratic Party’s (FDP) surprisingly strong showing in September elections here, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) have taken a sharp turn to the right, pulled toward more fiscally conservative policies by FDP leader and foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle. Since the FDP and CDU formally became a coalition in October, tax breaks have been given to big business, little action has been taken against banks viewed by many here as the main culprits of the financial crisis, and threats of cuts in social services loom. While the business community has […]

I wish there was an English translation of this Le Figaro interview with outgoing French army chief of staff, Gen. Jean-Louis Georgelin, mainly for the overlap it reveals in terms of French and U.S. strategic thinking, but also for the very cogent way in which he frames many of the familiar aspects of the discussion. For the overlap, Georgelin suggests that instead of preparing for enemies, the military must prepare for a variety of unpredictable threat scenarios, something the QDR also emphasizes. His discussion of the difficulty democracies face in maintaining political will to wage distant wars of “forward defense” […]