Iran Archive

As Israel contemplates military action to retard the development of Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. and Arab policymakers are trying to determine the second- and third-order effects that such a strike would have on the region. A recent exercise by U.S. Central Command has raised concerns among U.S. policymakers that an Israeli strike on Iran would do serious damage to U.S. interests in the region in particular, but analysts must remain humble about what we can really know with certainty about such contingencies. Both Iranian and Israeli intentions are unclear, and the United States and its allies have remarkably poor political […]

The Obama administration’s national security team must walk a very delicate tightrope on Iran policy in the weeks to come. On the one hand, it must convince doubters in Iran, Israel and the U.S. Congress that the administration is prepared to use force if necessary to stop Iran from mastering the technologies needed to construct nuclear weapons. If the different factions within the Islamic Republic are not convinced that President Barack Obama is prepared to pull the proverbial trigger, they have no incentive to return to the negotiating table. And if the U.S. commitment to accept the use of force […]

In the immediate aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War, before the Iraqi insurgency had come to define the conflict, one of the Democratic Party’s loudest criticisms of the Bush administration was that it had utterly bungled the diplomatic angle in the run-up to the war: President George W. Bush had been unable to replicate his father’s success in getting the United Nations to pass a catch-all resolution authorizing “all necessary means” to ensure that Iraq was disarmed. Nor had he been able to get a major regional security organization to endorse military action after efforts at the U.N. Security Council […]

When results began to emerge from Iran’s March 2 parliamentary elections, the ayatollahs, their cohorts and the news outlets they control were quick to herald a resounding victory for the principles of “velayat-e faqih,” or “governance by the Islamic jurist,” the doctrine that puts Iran’s religious leadership at the top of the political hierarchy. Western media followed suit, declaring a solid victory for factions supporting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by lumping together all Islamic parties that had gained parliamentary seats. Yet, jumping to such conclusions simply reinforces what Iran’s fundamentalists want their own public and the West to believe, […]

A major Indian trade mission is in Iran seeking to exploit Tehran’s increasing diplomatic and commercial isolation to rectify India’s trade imbalance with Iran. But while Indian companies are understandably eager to take advantage of the resulting commercial opportunities, the Indian government must soothe U.S., Israeli and European concerns that Indian firms will simply undercut international sanctions against Iran by “backfilling” Western companies currently departing the country. India’s behavior highlights a major problem with the Iran sanctions regime: Many countries face a different set of calculations with regard to Iran than the United States, Israel and the European and Persian […]

Iran and Azerbaijan have had a volatile diplomatic relationship ever since Azerbaijan gained its independence 20 years ago. But even against the backdrop of their bumpy history, the deterioration in relations over the past few months has been swift. Azerbaijan’s recent moves to strengthen its alliance with Israel have certainly exacerbated tensions with Iran, but they are not the only cause of conflict. In addition to the two sides’ history of mutual suspicion, violent disagreement over sovereignty and each other’s choice of regional diplomatic partners are also prominent causes of strife. A central source of long-term tension between the two […]

The recent parliamentary elections in Iran, in which conservative allies of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to gain majority control of the parliament, were an embarrassing blow to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who will now face an even more hostile political environment for the rest of his second term, which ends in June 2013. “Going forward, we are going to see a more authoritarian system of government where there is less give-and-take and where foreign and domestic policy is more likely to be rigid rather than flexible, with really a few men making major decisions,” said Alireza Nader, a senior […]

Last month, Saudi Arabia made a move to normalize one of the Middle East’s key diplomatic relationships when it announced that the Saudi ambassador to Jordan would also serve as ambassador to Iraq. Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Baghdad after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. Two decades later, tensions remain, compounded by Saudi suspicion of the Shiite government in Iraq. But now the two key U.S. allies are making headlines for the steps they are taking to improve bilateral relations. “At bare minimum I think what we’ve seen are good gestures on the parts of the people who lead […]

The Obama administration’s claim that sanctions on Iran are working is belied by a problematic truth: Sanctions are a short-sighted and often ineffective tool of statecraft. In the case of Iran, they have had a strongly negative impact on the average Iranian, thereby diminishing the United States’ moral standing in the world and undermining the goal of reducing the security threat posed by Iran. Recognizing this, the U.S. should embrace a new strategy of principled re-engagement with Iran that revisits diplomacy and minimizes harm to regular Iranians. Such a strategy is the best way to alleviate the long-term threat posed […]

The debate among U.S. foreign policy analysts over the wisdom of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities — and whether or not America should allow itself to be drawn into an ensuing conflict with Iran should Israel strike — has largely taken place parallel to the debate over whether to pursue an R2P, or responsibility to protect, intervention in Syria. It bears noting, however, that forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s departure may be the best near-term policy for the U.S. to avoid being sucked into an Israeli-Iranian war. Clearly the Assad ruling clan deserves our best efforts short of […]

The veto by Russia and China in February of a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down has stalled efforts by the U.S., its European allies and the Arab League to halt the bloody crackdown in Syria through U.N. action. Though the U.S. is currently drafting a new U.N. resolution, calls by some observers to arm the Syrian resistance have now been echoed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf Cooperation Council states eager to see the pro-Iranian Assad regime replaced by a Sunni-dominated government. Meanwhile, French President Nicolas Sarkozy joined the ranks of […]

Israeli defense officials confirmed Sunday a deal to sell $1.6 billion in arms, including drones and missile defense systems, to Azerbaijan. The deal reflects the close relationship between Israel, which finds itself increasingly isolated in an increasingly hostile region, and Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran and is building up its military capability in the midst of its own dispute with Armenia. The news comes at a delicate time, with tensions flaring between Israel and Iran dominate headlines and analysts warning that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could spiral into a regional conflict. Now, growing tensions between […]

As the ground continues to shift in the Middle East, the cracks that have long existed inside the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas are coming to the surface. The growing divisions could split the organization, but they have wider implications. Hamas’ alliance with Tehran is becoming increasingly untenable. Long a fixture of the modern Middle East, the four-member bloc comprised of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah is slowly coming apart. The strains of adapting to the changing regional landscape are showing in Hamas’ two-tier leadership, divided between those in exile and those who remain in the Palestinian territories. In recent months, […]