Over the next few weeks, as Congress prepares to vote on the Iran nuclear deal, the American people are going to be bombarded with arguments both for and against it. The critics will argue that the United States has given Iran carte blanche to pursue nuclear weapons and destabilize the region; the supporters will say that the deal’s opponents offer no alternative for stopping Iran’s nuclear aspirations. The lobbying, the accusations of bad faith, the references to the Holocaust and the demonizing of critics will be intense. But here are the two dirty little secrets about the Iran deal: Congress […]
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Washington is in full gear for an intense 60-day debate over the Iran nuclear deal, and one important feature of the discussion is the contributions made by diverse civil society organizations. It’s one of those moments where information and analysis are in high demand, highlighting the interplay between government and nongovernment actors. Think tanks in particular are playing a prominent role in educating the public and engaging with journalists and congressional offices, whether to amplify, endorse or critique the Obama administration’s position. The decade of on-again, off-again negotiations with Iran in some ways serves as a good illustration of the […]
For decades U.S. policy in the Middle East focused on two things: Israel and oil. Helping to keep Israel secure was not hard since the Israelis themselves had it well under control. Making sure that oil flowed was more challenging since most of it was owned by brittle monarchies or dictators, but the United States and its allies found a way. This emphasis on Israel and oil led to an American strategy that was remarkably consistent even when the White House changed hands. Its goal was stability built on partnerships with local states when possible and direct action if necessary. […]
Just days after Iran and world powers signed an agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, another geopolitical tremor was felt across the region. It was no earthquake, not yet, but it was a new measure of the vast seismic shift that the nuclear deal is unleashing throughout the Middle East. Last Friday, the exiled leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, traveled to Saudi Arabia from his home in Qatar, ending several years of deep chill in the relations between the Saudi kingdom and the radical Palestinian group that rules Gaza. Hamas officials described the visit, Mashaal’s first in three years, as […]
As the debate over the Iran nuclear deal begins in Congress, many of the arguments against the agreement reached by the U.S. and its P5+1 partners—France, the U.K., Russia, China and Germany—and Iran have taken on the appearance of theological opposition, where nothing short of full capitulation by the Iranians would satisfy critics. Other critiques have exaggerated the deal’s likely impact on the region or portrayed it in a distinctly one-sided manner. Furthermore, almost all of the deal’s critics have ignored the geopolitical impact it will have beyond the region, thereby overlooking a key benefit that advances U.S. interests—namely vis-a-vis […]
In trying to make sense of the recent nuclear deal with Iran and what it says about U.S. policy in the Middle East, the penultimate scene in “The Godfather” comes to mind. In it, the new godfather, Michael Corleone, wipes out his criminal rivals, the heads of New York’s five Mafia families and casino magnate Moe Greene. In recounting the day’s bloodletting, Michael subsequently says, “Today I settled all family business,” as he prepares to move the Corleone family to Nevada. This, minus the gangland shootings, is largely what the United States is trying to do with the Iran deal. […]
Yesterday, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2231, which confirmed key provisions of the nuclear deal—officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—adopted last week by Iran and its P5+1 negotiating partners, comprising the U.S., France, the U.K., Russia, China and Germany. In her speech marking the resolution’s enactment, Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, drew several lessons from the lengthy efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear aspirations. These included the requirement for vigorous enforcement of global nonproliferation norms, the value of “tough, principled diplomacy,” the need for effective implementation of negotiated agreements and the imperative […]
Can international legal mechanisms defuse tensions among the West, Russia and China? Last week, U.S. and European officials praised their Chinese and Russian counterparts for helping seal the nuclear deal with Iran. Yet there were warning signs of new spats with Beijing and Moscow over the South China Sea and Ukraine. These tensions concern not only the countries’ core national interests, but also their readiness to submit these interests to legal reviews. China and Russia seem determined to ensure that, as great powers, they cannot be contained through international law. In The Hague, the low-profile but august Permanent Court of […]
Yesterday’s announcement of a comprehensive agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear ambitions is no ordinary triumph. It is, in fact, a historic and seminal moment that fundamentally strengthens the international system and suggests a major shift in global affairs. For 12 years, the international community has been trying to force Iran to accept limitations on its nuclear aspirations. United Nations Security Council sanctions were placed on the country, threats of military force made, torturous negotiations initiated and interim agreements achieved. While talks, at various points, appeared to be on the brink of failure, in the end, the international community, […]
Today’s international system is a confusing and hybrid mix of concepts about how states interact and manage their relations. Since the end of the Cold War, the absolute and relative importance of alliances is increasingly being questioned, and new forms of ad hoc cooperation that do not assume permanent shared interests have emerged. Above all, there’s no longer one rule book to govern interstate relations. Instead states in the 21st century work across a full spectrum of approaches, from insistence on absolute state sovereignty on one end of the spectrum to regional integration on the other, with a range of […]
After 20 months of negotiations, which came down to the wire over 18 straight days in Vienna, Iran and six world powers, led by the United States, reached a deal Tuesday to curb Iran’s nuclear program for more than a decade in exchange for lifting sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy. All U.S. and European Union nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after international inspectors have verified that Iran is abiding by its commitments. According to The New York Times, “the United States preserved—and in some cases extended—the nuclear restrictions it sketched out with Iran in early April in Lausanne, […]
Who wants to live in a world designed by Vladimir Putin? The number of people who answer “yes” to that question may be rather higher than American and European officials might like to imagine. The Russian president has crafted a narrative about his nation’s revitalization as a global power that many of his countrymen clearly appreciate. Chauvinist nationalist leaders elsewhere, such as Marine Le Pen, the head of France’s National Front party, admire his success. But Western policymakers typically comfort themselves that Putin’s mainstream appeal remains limited. Moscow has not been able to offer a positive vision of a new […]
If ambitious aliens reached Earth tomorrow, they might conclude that the planet is too troublesome to bother conquering: The world looks like an ungovernable place. The European Union faces an ever-intensifying crisis over Greece. Arab powers and their Western allies are struggling to keep up with terrorist attacks and atrocities by the Islamic State. The U.S. military reported last week that Russian and Chinese assertiveness now makes the chance of great-power war “low but growing.” Can these crises be defused? The answer may lie in Vienna, where talks on an Iranian nuclear deal are coming to a head, after widely […]