The sudden regime failures of the Shah of Iran and the USSR should be kept in mind when examining the self-inflicted disasters that Moscow and Tehran are currently struggling with. The West should remain cautious before making firm predictions that either will collapse, but prepare for a range of outcomes if they do.
Women in Iran are taking to the streets to protest the imposition of the headscarf. The protests may not necessarily signal the beginning of the end for the theocratic regime that has held power since 1979. But they highlight the schism between the regime and the Iranian population, and the limits of its hold on society.
The death of Mahsa Amini after being arrested by the Iranian police’s “guidance patrol”—tasked with enforcing the mandatory hijab law—may not seem like the kind of event that could seriously undermine the Islamic Republic’s authority. But it has set off a wave of protests that could become the largest the country has seen in years.
Once again, the fate of the Iran nuclear agreement is in limbo. While in theory a deal is still possible, in practice, the longer the negotiations to revive it drag out, the more difficult it will be for both sides to compromise. With that in mind, it’s worth revisiting the question of what a no-deal future might look like.
The IAEA has found itself in the thick of two global political crises—securing a Ukrainian nuclear power plant and enforcing oversight of Iran’s nuclear program. Its chief, Rafael Grossi, has managed both files with dexterity, but his ongoing success will depend on his ability to avoid alienating any of the parties involved.