Once again, the fate of the Iran nuclear agreement is in limbo. While in theory a deal is still possible, in practice, the longer the negotiations to revive it drag out, the more difficult it will be for both sides to compromise. With that in mind, it’s worth revisiting the question of what a no-deal future might look like.
The IAEA has found itself in the thick of two global political crises—securing a Ukrainian nuclear power plant and enforcing oversight of Iran’s nuclear program. Its chief, Rafael Grossi, has managed both files with dexterity, but his ongoing success will depend on his ability to avoid alienating any of the parties involved.
The ongoing talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal seem to have entered a critical stage in the past several days, with no small amount of optimism that a breakthrough is near. The problem both sides now face is that the deals underlying logic no longer holds, whether as an arms control agreement or as a confidence-building measure.
