Middle East & North Africa Archive

In the aftermath of the Libya operation, my Naval War College colleague Tom Nichols concluded bluntly, “Humanitarian interventions are here to stay and are going to be driven more by moral calculation and military opportunity than by ‘national interest.’” This, it seems, is the new American foreign policy consensus; despite the costly U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the anti-interventionist coalition has lost the policy debate. The current fiscal crisis may trim back the scale and scope of future interventions, but will not eliminate them altogether from the U.S. policy toolbox. Even with its fiscal constraints, the United States will […]

Predictions of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s fall from power have been frequent among Western observers. On this view, events involving two American hikers jailed in Tehran are seen as the latest display of Ahmadinejad’s political impotence in the face of clerical power. But, despite the predictions, and as a few observers outside Iran ha ve realized, Ahmadinejad’s political demise is far from imminent. The president and his appointees have been portrayed as diminished and defeated, and as about to resign or be sacrificed as scapegoats. Some analysts have speculated Ahmadinejad will be arrested on charges of treason for imprudently opposing […]

British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are the first leaders of Nato countries to make a trip to Libya since Colonel Gaddafi was overthrown.

In his WPR column yesterday, Robert Farley discussed Israel’s strategic options in light of damaged and possibly doomed ties with Turkey and Egypt. But it’s worth noting that an Israel in conflict with two of the United States’ closest regional allies also has significant impact on the United States’ strategic calculus in the Middle East. When two friends get into a dispute that not only resists resolution but actually deepens, one eventually begins to feel pressure to move from trying to mediate to choosing sides. And given the realities of U.S. domestic politics, it’s only a matter of time before […]

It wasn’t very long ago when American interest in the Middle East focused with piercing intensity on the minutest of developments in Iraq. Over time, however, the gradual drawdown of U.S. forces, the uprisings in the Middle East and public exhaustion with the draining American misadventure in Mesopotamia conspired to take Baghdad out of the headlines. That is about to change. The coming months will bring Iraq back to the foreground. A number of crucial events and opposing forces are now converging, and they will determine whether Iraq, the country Americans spent so much blood and treasure to turn into […]

Over the past two weeks, Israel has seen two critical strategic relationships with key regional allies nearly collapse. In Cairo, protesters stormed the Israeli Embassy, causing property damage but no injuries. This came on the heels of a border incident in Sinai, in which Israeli soldiers in pursuit of Palestinian militants accidentally killed several Egyptian soldiers. The Israeli government has taken steps to reduce tensions with Egypt, but the ability of the latter’s transitional military government to mend fences is unclear. As for the willingness of any new Egyptian government to spend political capital on maintaining a good relationship with […]

Turkey’s prime minister has addressed a meeting of the Arab League’s foreign ministers in Cairo, saying recognition of a Palestinian state is an “obligation, and not an option.”

Syrian activists say at least 11 people have have been killed in various cities on Tuesday. The government’s continued crackdown on protestors has been on the agenda at the Arab League summit in Cairo.

Later this month, the Palestine Liberation Organization is expected to call upon the United Nations to recognize Palestinian statehood based on the 1967 borders. The initiative is not based on any hope that the move will itself bring about a concrete change in conditions in the occupied Palestinian territories. Rather, it is intended to more firmly anchor the principle of a Palestinian state, at a time when Palestinian leaders fundamentally doubt Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution. The move is vehemently opposed by Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arguing that the effort seeks to circumvent the peace process. U.N. […]

A United Nations vote on statehood for Palestine will not determine whether and how a Palestinian state is established and recognized. That will be determined predominantly by the political realities dividing and linking Israel and Palestine. However, regional and global factors may influence the timing and shape of the forthcoming Palestinian state, the extent to which its prospects for peace and prosperity are enhanced and the basis on which its relations with surrounding states are put in place. Since one important area in which exogenous factors may be as important as internal factors in Palestine and Israel is refugee return, […]

Since I was at the Pentagon on Sept. 11 and saw Flight 77 hit the building, the 10th anniversary of the attack naturally causes me to reflect on how much progress we have made in preventing another such cataclysm during the past decade as well as on the challenges that remain for preventing one in the future. Two issues immediately come to mind: further strengthening the Department of Homeland Security and considering how the United States might reduce the high level of anti-Americanism that persists in much of the world. The mere creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) […]

In August 2009, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad pledged to “complete the process of building institutions of the independent State of Palestine in order to establish a de facto state apparatus within the next two years.” The Palestinian Authority (PA), he said, would do this “despite the hostile occupation regime.” Indeed, Fayyad argued that by focusing on building institutions, Palestinians would “expedite the end of the occupation,” because their state would “emerge as a fact that cannot be ignored.” Fayyad’s two-year deadline expired in August 2011. Is Palestine ready, in institutional terms, for statehood? The question may appear hypothetical because […]

The slow-burning war pitting militarized Kurdish groups in Iraq against the governments of Turkey and Iran has escalated since mid-August. Most notably, Turkish fighter jets have flown multiple bombing runs on bases of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The Turkish bombing campaign, occurring inside northern Iraq, is reportedly being conducted in retaliation for a series of PKK attacks that have left more than two dozen Turkish soldiers dead since the beginning of the summer. Meanwhile, a PKK offshoot known as the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) is engaged in ongoing clashes with Iranian forces, with Iranian officials […]

Eight years after Moammar Gadhafi gave up his mail-order nuclear weapons program and chemical munitions in exchange for détente with the West, he has been chased from power by a ragtag rebel army backed by Western airpower. Chances are that Gadhafi regrets his decision to forgo his WMD programs. If he had been armed with nuclear or chemical weapons, NATO might not have intervened when he threatened to massacre his own people. While Gadhafi’s fall is good news, the end of the eccentric colonel’s dictatorship now heightens the challenge of getting the Irans and North Koreas of the world to […]

In thinking about the ways in which Sept. 11 and our responses to it changed America and the world, it’s important to remember that some of its impact, and perhaps the most historically significant aspects of that impact, may not have entirely emerged yet. In August 1945, for instance, while the advent of radar, jet technology and nuclear weapons were plainly evident, it would have been close to impossible to foresee the way in which the war effort, both domestically and in theater, would go on to inform the black civil rights movement and women’s liberation movement 20-25 years later. […]

Post-Gadhafi Libya is set to become the next major test of two competing approaches to international affairs — the “gratitude doctrine” of the Western alliance pitted against the “strict neutrality” practiced by Beijing. The “gratitude doctrine,” in short, is the West’s assumption that providing assistance to those seeking to overthrow a repressive regime — especially in the form of timely military aid to counterbalance the overwhelming advantages enjoyed by the forces of the dictator — will produce a successor government that will be more receptive to U.S. and European influence and more responsive to their interests and concerns. The doctrine’s […]

With Moammar Gadhafi now ousted, Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC) is scrambling to restore order to Tripoli. It remains to be seen whether international peacekeepers will be needed during the months ahead to ensure a peaceful transition toward a sustainable post-revolution society. An Iraq-style security meltdown seems, at the moment, improbable. However, should it occur, the question of who from the international community might best be suited to intervene is likely to prove problematic, says Jane Kinninmont, a senior research fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House in London. While NTC leaders and opposition rebels […]