A recent spate of commentary has drawn the analogy between today’s regional conflicts and those of the 1930s that led to World War II, often as a cautionary tale for how to deal with contemporary international security dynamics. These analogies, however, misread the past, with potentially dangerous implications for the present.
Censorship of local Russian media, combined with diminished access for foreign reporters, has narrowed our understanding of the war in Ukraine’s impact on Russian communities outside big cities. Yet even with these limits, there are significant signals that undermine the image of invincibility the Putin regime works so hard to project.
Alexei Navalny’s death last week fueled despair among dissidents and emigres struggling to break President Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia. Now, unless other leading activists can move quickly to revive the remnants of Russia’s democratic opposition, their influence is likely to fade away for the foreseeable future.
Nearly two years into Ukraine’s war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a major change last week, replacing the commander of the Ukrainian military. While we do not know the exact reason for the change, it is also unsurprising—without a clear path to military victory, a rethink of Ukraine’s strategy is necessary.
The International Court of Justice last week agreed to take up the question of whether Ukraine was committing genocide in the war against Russia. The ruling may have surprised some observers, but Ukraine actually asked the ICJ to rule on its own conduct in order to decisively repudiate Russia’s justification for invading.