Last week, Colombian President Gustavo Petro threatened to call for a constitutional convention, reopened peace talks with a notorious criminal group and canceled a cease-fire with a dissident FARC faction. Announcements like these would normally create months’ worth of media coverage. Under Petro, they have become almost uneventful.
Last week, Brazil’s Supreme Court published documents showing that the country came close to a coup in late 2022. Transfers of power are supposed to be routine formalities in democracies. Yet, from Brazil to Guatemala to the U.S., the hemisphere has seen incumbent presidents attempt to undermine democracy after losing elections.
As the U.S. enters an election year, concerns in Europe are growing over Washington’s ability to project power in Europe and the Middle East. Yet this focus often draws attention away from how much the foundations of U.S. global power are anchored in its ability to exert effortless dominance over the Western Hemisphere.
French President Emmanuel Macron wants to establish France and Europe as the world’s “third pole of stability” by building bridges with Global South countries. But his credibility is undermined by his consistently demonstrated inability to attend to France’s own Global South—its overseas departments, regions and collectivities.
It may not be a return of the “Pink Tide,” but the region’s left has been showing signs of a revival. Perhaps more than questions of right and left, though, what most characterizes South America today is a sense of instability and democratic fragility. What’s next for the continent?
A standoff between Ecuador and Russia over a proposed arms transfer to Ukraine last month foreshadows how global competition among great powers may play out in Latin America moving forward. If the region doesn’t learn from the episode, it will find itself vulnerable to much larger forms of economic coercion over the coming decade.
Though often seen as a region with marginal geopolitical leverage, Latin America is increasingly being targeted by Moscow’s influence campaigns. Those efforts are finding receptive audiences, due to a variety of factors. And countering Russian propaganda will not be easy, as doing so effectively requires a nuanced approach.