Briefing Archive

After more than a year of fighting, the resumption of peace negotiations between the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was a welcome development in Mindanao, an island mired in endemic violence. But although talks have resumed in earnest, persistent structural obstacles mean that hopes for a lasting peace remain slim. The most positive development that has emerged from the latest effort is an internationalization of the process, which has now clearly moved beyond the informal and largely ineffectual mediation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. On Sept. 15, Manila and the MILF agreed […]

KUALA LUMPUR — As Thai leaders come to terms with an ailing monarch and grapple with the headline-grabbing antics of antagonists in Cambodia, insurgents in the deep south of the country have been raising the stakes in their bid for autonomy. Casualties blamed on shootings, bombings and military raids have become an almost daily occurrence in recent months, leading Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Malaysian counterpart, Najib Razak, to tour the troubled southern province of Narathiwat on Dec. 9. Together they urged locals to condemn the violence, while promising further talks and some degree of autonomy to the […]

Two years after an unexpected surge in Dutch support for the Afghan war, the Netherlands has taken the first steps towards officially withdrawing from the NATO coalition in Afghanistan beginning in late 2010. A non-binding parliamentary decision in October rejecting an extension of the Dutch mission represents a striking break from the overall trend within NATO of deepening the alliance’s commitment to the eight-year-old war. The U.S. military is adding 30,000 troops to its current 70,000-strong force in Afghanistan, while the U.K., Italy and Poland — as well as non-NATO-members South Korea and Georgia — have also signaled their willingness […]

Get a .pdf version of this report. During the last five decades, Colombia’s foreign, defense and strategic priorities have been driven and determined by the country’s internal armed conflict, with the “War on Drugs” becoming the dominant paradigm from the 1980s onwards. This, in turn, has defined Colombia’s relations with Latin America — particularly, in recent years, with its Andean neighbors, Ecuador and Venezuela — as well as its relationship with the United States and Europe. Colombia’s struggle to stem cocaine production, its fight against the drug cartels that sprung up around the drug trade, and its war against the […]

When, upon being elected, Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama spoke of building fraternal seas and constructing a European Union-styled East Asian Community, critics denounced him as a naive peacenik. But Hatoyama’s low-profile Nov. 23 decision to commission a new DDH-22 helicopter destroyer — Japan’s largest military vessel since World War II — suggests he is actually striking a shrewd balance between promoting regionalism and protecting Japan’s regional and global interests through robust naval capabilities. The DDH-22 is officially designated as a “helicopter-carrying destroyer” by Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Forces (MSDF). But with its flush flight deck and large, starboard-side island […]

It’s not often that a U.S. official defends Iran at an international forum. But U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman did just that at the sixth annual Manama Dialogue, a regional security conference organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies held in Bahrain on Dec. 11-13. Feltman deflected charges by the Yemeni and Saudi governments that Iran was providing military assistance to Houthi rebels operating along the Yemeni-Saudi border. Meanwhile, at the same conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki provided the most detailed counteroffer to date from Tehran regarding proposals that Iran exchange its […]

TORREÓN, Mexico — On Dec. 9, Mexican President Felipe Calderón tabbed Finance Minister Agustín Carstens to head the nation’s central bank, known as Banxico.Carstens replaces Guillermo Ortiz, a highly respected official who had occupied the post for 12 years. Despite a political climate increasingly hostile toward Calderón, the move — which had been rumored for weeks — brought waves of approval. The markets, the punditry, and that titan of Mexico’s economy, Carlos Slim, were all pleased by the selection, with the latter raving, “[W]ithout a doubt, Carstens has all of the credentials to occupy the post.” Among Calderón’s cabinet members, […]

Last week, I noted that the GOP’s defense hawks have taken to accusing President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats of exploiting America’s health care crisis to further their long-term “plot” to curtail defense spending — and, by extension, our nation’s capacity for military interventions abroad. The implied beneficiary of this “unilateral surrender”? Why, the Chinese, of course, who’d thereby be left free to conquer the developing world in their unending quest to secure raw materials. But a funny thing happened on the way to China’s presumed domination of the world’s natural resources: It ran into the same core problem that […]

While Afghanistan has often been touted as the crucible for the regeneration of the Western alliance, it also offers another opportunity for the United States: a means to promote a stabilizing modus vivendi between India and China. In his recent WPR Briefing on China’s stake in containing Pakistani militants, Michael Kugelman observed, “Pakistan’s instability threatens the security of China’s citizens, its government and its energy imports,” particularly when it comes to the “combustible province of Baluchistan.” He notes, “Whenever China has demanded something of Islamabad, the latter has often complied.” And in surveying the Indian strategic view of Afghanistan, Dan […]

Counterinsurgency, commonly referred to by its military acronym, “COIN,” essentially boils down to armed nation-building — a deliberate process of empowering people and weakening guerrillas until a state-friendly balance emerges. By contrast, counterterrorism seeks the tactical annihilation of the enemy. President Barack Obama’s new Afghanistan and Pakistan strategy is an effort to do both, promising to dismantle and disrupt al-Qaida while leaving the expensive and time-consuming job of definitively defeating it to Islamabad and Kabul. Call it COIN-lite. Can such an approach work? For now, yes. But if we extend the time horizon to 5-10 years from now, the outlook […]

Throughout history, the most transparent and blunt expression of international power has involved the projection of military force. Over the years, other forms of power have gained importance, with the concept of “soft power” — or the ability to peacefully persuade and attract other nations to acquiesce to a country’s will — recently gaining prominence as an alternative to traditional “hard power.” But for countries without the luxury of the large military budgets that fuel hard power or the massive cultural and economic assets that underpin soft power, a third way has emerged as a path to global influence. Call […]

TOKYO — Asia may already have an alphabet soup of regional economic and security arrangements, but Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd seems to believe there is room for at least one more. At a gathering of regional ministers, media and think tanks, Rudd argued that the region risked drifting in the face of challenges ahead. “We need to plan — we need to plan with each other, rather than against each other, as has often been the custom in times past,” he said, addressing a two-day conference, “Asia Pacific: A Community for the 21st Century,” held in Sydney beginning last […]

NEW DELHI — After months of vacillation, and relentless pressure from Western nations, India finally announced a unilateral climate mitigation measure to reduce its carbon intensity levels by 20 percent to 25 percent on its 2005 levels over the next 11 years. The decision comes against the looming backdrop of the United Nations Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen, which opened on Dec. 7. The new goals mark an unambiguous departure from New Delhi’s traditional position that rich nations are historically responsible for global warming and should therefore take up the bulk of the responsibility for all reduction efforts. India has […]

When President Barack Obama accepts his Nobel Peace Prize this week in Oslo, it will likely amplify the grumbling of those who think he is being rewarded for circumscribing American power. Obama’s diplomatic efforts to date have elicited complaints that he is “starry eyed” and “weak,” too solicitous of foreign leaders, and even “accommodating” of America’s enemies. These criticisms miss the point. Barack Obama isn’t weak. He just helms a superpower whose power and influence is on the wane. Even as it remains the most powerful nation in the world, the United States is becoming, as the Bush-era National Intelligence […]

In the summer of 1999, during one of the most notable periods of social unrest in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, an ominous letter signed by 24 leaders of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution Corps (also known as the IRGC or Sepah e Pasdaran) was delivered to then-President Mohammad Khatami. In what amounted to an ultimatum, the IRGC leaders expressed their grave concern about the direction taken by the reformist movement, which at the time controlled both the legislative and executive branches of the Iranian government. The letter warned Khatami that the IRGC feared for the […]

A fanatical rebel group formed in northern Uganda in the 1980s has spread to become what one U.S. general labeled a “transnational” threat, prompting the U.S. and various East African nations to work together to defeat the group. The international cooperation is the fruit of years of delicate planning by U.S. officials. The Lord’s Resistance Army, founded by Ugandan Joseph Kuny in 1986, aims to establish a Christian theocratic government in East Africa. But the group’s brutal methods — torture, abduction and rape — belie its religious roots. From Uganda, the LRA spread into neighboring Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo […]

On the first anniversary of the Mumbai attacks, many observers discussed the implications of the events that took place last Nov. 26. But few have commented on the implications of what did not take place: New Delhi did not mobilize its armed forces. It did not retaliate against terrorist safe havens, nor did it go to war with the country — Pakistan — where they were located. Rather, it limited its response to calling upon its neighbor to shut down the terrorist cells and extradite the masterminds and abettors of the Mumbai attackers. Islamabad responded half-heartedly. It failed to bring […]