Briefing Archive

With huge hydrocarbon finds being unearthed in both conventional and unconventional sectors across the Americas, energy independence is being hyped to epic proportions in the United States. The scorecard now shows 6.5 trillion unconventional barrels of oil in the Americas, running from Canada all the way to Argentina, versus 1.2 trillion conventional barrels in the Middle East and North Africa. The U.S. and Brazil sit comfortably in the middle of the expected windfall, and even Mexico, long lost to the annals of hydrocarbon blunders, boasts major new unconventional reserves. Given the awesome scale of these figures, it is hardly surprising […]

BEIJING — Following recent declines in headline inflation, weak power generation in October and deepening financial losses for power companies, speculation has once again picked up regarding potential coal and electricity pricing reform in China. While some form of price adjustment looks imminent, structural reforms to pricing mechanisms affect multiple domestic interest groups and are proving hard to manage for the party-state. Beyond pricing, many broader reforms are already delayed, and the struggle to build consensus looks likely to cause further disruption. China’s ambition to wean itself off coal is well-documented. Draft versions of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) outlined […]

On Sept. 26, deep inside Taliban-controlled territory in Afghanistan’s Helmand province, Afghan counternarcotics agents backed by their Australian counterparts seized and destroyed $350 million worth of illegal narcotics. The operation set a record for drug seizures in Afghanistan, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. Two weeks earlier, the same authorities busted the largest heroin-producing facility found in Afghanistan since 2006, capturing drugs worth $150 million if sold in the U.S. Both operations took millions of dollars from the pockets of insurgents who might otherwise use the money to buy weapons and ultimately mount narco-terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan. But a […]

NAIROBI — Targeting East Africa as an area of vital strategic interest, Israel is heightening its regional presence, most notably through a security pact signed last week with Kenyan political and security leaders. The move comes at a critical time for Kenya. The country’s military campaign aimed at eradicating al-Qaida-linked al-Shabaab in Somalia has now entered its sixth week, and domestic security concerns continue to escalate. Speculation over the nature of the enhanced bilateral ties emerged after Kenyan political leaders provocatively declared the alliance. Officials from both nations have since been tight-lipped, and details remain murky. But Israeli officials in […]

It is usually difficult to judge with certainty the outcome of international summits in their immediate aftermath. But last weekend’s East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia, made at least one thing clear: The Obama administration has managed to mend the rift with the member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations that emerged under President George W. Bush. At Bali, President Barack Obama received strong and positive feedback from ASEAN countries. And in advance of the summit, he strengthened the United States’ historic alliance with Australia, a country that seems to be emerging with a new role in […]

There is perhaps no better measure of the failure of American strategy over the past decade than the fact that in both Iraq and Afghanistan, tactical objectives have been used to define victory. In particular, both wars have been characterized by an all-encompassing obsession with the methods and tactics of counterinsurgency. To be sure, the tactics of counterinsurgency require political and cultural acumen to build host-nation governments and economies. But understanding the political aspects of counterinsurgency tactics is fundamentally different from understanding core American political objectives and then defining a cost-effective strategy to achieve them. If it is to avoid […]

If the phenomenon of nuclear renaissance has a true believer, it is India. In the next decade, India envisages monumental growth in its nuclear energy production. Today, nuclear energy contributes only 3 percent of the country’s total energy mix — a meager 4,200 megawatts. By 2020, India plans to increase nuclear energy production tenfold, to 40,000 MW. But the question now facing New Delhi is whether hostile public opinion will scuttle India’s nuclear energy expansion. Massive anti-nuclear protests in India have brought progress on the Koodankulam nuclear power plant to a grinding halt. Before that, the Jaitapur nuclear project ran […]

CAIRO — On Jan. 28, the Egyptian revolution’s “Day of Anger,” revolutionary protesters drove security forces loyal to the ruling regime from Cairo’s streets. As Egyptian army tanks rolled into Tahrir Square to fill the security vacuum, thousands cheered the arrival of what they saw as stability amid the chaos of the uprising. And when then-President Hosni Mubarak finally abdicated power on Feb. 11, most Egyptians were relieved to see the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), a body of military leaders normally headed by the president, take control. “During the Egyptian revolution, you had a sense of the […]

The U.S. government’s efforts to reduce America’s budget deficit has put funding for nuclear nonproliferation programs, development aid and even defense spending on the chopping block. With advocacy groups and lobbyists in Washington now fighting tooth and nail to minimize the damage to their core interests, little attention has been given to an innovative way to achieve national and international security and development objectives amid financial austerity: leveraging the private sector. Advanced technology is fast becoming the 21st century antidote to a variety of global security challenges, and if properly applied, the same technologies can also represent a cost-effective strategy […]

The absence of the European Union from the Sixth East Asia Summit (EAS), which will be held in Bali, Indonesia, on Nov. 18-19, is a sign that the EU may play only a secondary role in what many see as the unfolding “Asian century.” Though the EU is the longest-standing partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the lead organization for the EAS, EU leaders will be totally excluded from the summit, which will bring together leaders of the 10 ASEAN states, plus Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. This exclusion should […]

On Oct. 31, the global population was estimated to have reached the 7 billion mark. On the eve of that momentous day, Li Bin, director of China’s State Population and Family Planning Commission, announced that China would retain its one-child fertility policy to do its part to slow world population growth. This news will have come as a bitter disappointment to the Chinese demographers and policymakers who have been calling for a relaxation of the one-child policy for several years. Wang Yuqing, the deputy director of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Committee on Population, Natural Resources and the Environment, […]

Despite U.S. President Barack Obama’s campaign promise to engage rogue regimes, America’s relationship with North Korea has been frosty since he took office. A string of provocations by Pyongyang last year, including the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan and a missile attack on Yeonpeong Island, further dampened hopes for progress. But recent staff changes in the Obama administration and other signals suggest that ties may warm in the coming months. On Oct. 19, State Department spokesman Mark C. Toner announced in a press briefing that Stephen W. Bosworth, dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy would […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on the unlikelihood of a Chinese contribution to a financial bailout of Europe. Part I examined the domestic obstacles to a Chinese contribution. Part II examines the European obstacles to a Chinese contribution. SHANGHAI — Due to multiple ideological and practical obstacles, major Chinese participation in any European rescue plan would require significant material concessions from European leaders to gain any traction among Chinese policymakers and citizens. So far, proposed concessions have been largely symbolic, such as promises to recognize China’s market economy status. Moreover, China prefers to deal either […]

For many, Veterans Day will bring parades honoring those who have served as well as a chance to pause and reflect upon those who are willing to pay, and have paid, the ultimate cost of service to the nation. This year, however, a disturbing trend should also be noted: For the second year in a row, however, more U.S. troops were lost to suicide throughout the force than to combat in Afghanistan or Iraq. A new report (.pdf) by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) highlights the severity of this troubling problem: – An active service member takes […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on the unlikelihood of a Chinese contribution to a financial bailout of Europe. Part I examines the domestic obstacles to a Chinese contribution. Part II will examine the European obstacles to a Chinese contribution. SHANGHAI — Recent optimism regarding possible Chinese involvement in addressing the European debt crisis is misplaced given China’s domestic political and economic conditions, resistance within the European Union itself and the growing international perception that Europe’s leaders simply do not have the capacity to design a sustainable solution for the continent’s economic woes. The disappointing outcome […]

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak arrived for a state visit to Washington in October in time to celebrate the passage by the U.S. Congress of the U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement with U.S. President Barack Obama. But back home in South Korea, the bill continues to face spirited opposition, with the current debate revealing potential cracks lurking beneath apparently healthy U.S.-South Korea relations. In fact, due to political changes in South Korea, the friction over the FTA could be just the first sign of deteriorating relations between the two countries. South Korean opposition parties have come together to vigorously oppose […]

To many observers, with its agonizing lurch toward default accompanied by crippling street protests, Greece in 2011 begs comparison to Argentina in 2001. Facing insolvency and 20 percent unemployment a decade ago, Argentina has mounted a strong recovery since defaulting on its international loans, leading some to think it can offer lessons for Greece’s turnaround. The comparison is misleading, however, for a variety of reasons. More importantly, prescribing policy based on Argentina’s recovery would be disastrous for Greece. Argentina’s economy rebounded from its 2001 collapse primarily thanks to demand for goods that were devalued by 70 percent when Argentina was […]