Briefing Archive

The rule of law remains fragile in Latin America, and, once undermined, it is difficult to re-establish. That has been the painful lesson learned by Honduras since the legally dubious 2009 ouster of President Manuel Zelaya, an event that U.S. diplomats, at least in leaked cables, have referred to as a coup d’état. And it is one that Paraguay might learn after the abrupt removal of President Fernando Lugo via congressional impeachment last weekend. Ever since the 2009 crisis, Honduras has been dogged by rapidly growing governance deficits and rising lawlessness, driving ever-deeper involvement by U.S. counternarcotics forces in the […]

The latest round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries came to a stalemate in Moscow last week, as the two sides once again failed to bridge their differences. Although the previous meeting in Istanbul generated some optimism that a mutually satisfactory solution to Iran’s nuclear program could be within reach, these hopes turned out to be premature in light of the negotiating positions the parties have taken over the past several months. It is now obvious that Western powers were wrong to expect that increased unilateral economic sanctions on Iran could effect some change in Iran’s negotiating […]

After Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigmi Y. Thinley met for the first time on the sidelines of the U.N. Rio+20 Conference in Brazil on June 21, Beijing announced that the two leaders had expressed their willingness to establish diplomatic relations between the neighboring countries. But Thimphu promptly disputed the report, saying Thinley and Wen had only discussed bilateral issues and multilateral cooperation, not diplomatic ties. The statement by China’s Foreign Ministry concerning the meeting reveals Beijing’s desperation to establish formal ties with the Kingdom of Bhutan, a tiny nation of about 700,000 people tucked between China […]

Robust economic growth proved to be elusive in the U.S. and Europe over the past decade, but that certainly was not the case across Asia, Africa and Latin America. From 2003 to 2007, developing countries averaged 7.2 percent in annual economic growth. Further indications that developing economies had effectively delinked from the West came in 2010, when dozens of developing countries recovered to near-record rates of growth while the United States and Europe remained hamstrung by financial and debt crises. China’s rapid industrialization triggered much of this expansion by driving up global commodity prices. In sourcing commodities from other developing […]

The sudden death last week of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Nayyif, the heir apparent to King Abdullah, caught many by surprise. But the latest royal shuffle, which sees Prince Salman becoming the new crown prince, and the even bigger transition expected to occur in the near future given the poor health of the 88-year-old king will likely feature far greater continuity and stability than the political transformations occurring in Egypt and other Arab countries. The purported ideological tug-of-war taking place inside the royal family is a central theme of much of the commentary on Saudi succession scenarios, with the “reactionaries” […]

As President Barack Obama’s first term in office draws to a close, attention has naturally turned to assessing his foreign policy record over the past four years. And while partisan debates in the run-up to November’s election are certain to feature more caricature than reasoned argument, even nonpartisan observers diverge when it comes to Obama’s foreign policy legacy to date, as recent articles by George Packer, Conor Friedersdorf and Daniel Larison demonstrate. The challenge is less identifying Obama’s successes and failures than determining the costs of the trade-offs he has made. Broadly speaking, the Obama team’s clearest policy successes have […]

Less than a month after Nepal’s Constituent Assembly was dissolved following its failure to draft a new constitution despite three extensions, the country’s largest and ruling Maoist party split this week. Discord and delay have characterized the country’s ongoing peace process since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord between the government and Maoist rebels in November 2006. They have now led to a political crisis that has disillusioned citizens and made neighboring India and China edgy. The split in the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist is expected to exacerbate Nepal’s already bumpy transition from a Hindu monarchy to a […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examined a best-case scenario. Part II examines a worst-case scenario. SHANGHAI — China’s fifth-generation leadership cadre will assume office later this year at a critical and perilous juncture in the country’s socio-economic development. They do so against a backdrop of weak global economic growth and growing geopolitical uncertainty in North Korea, Iran and multiple Central Asian states. Moreover, the U.S. is on a […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examines a best-case scenario. Part II will examine a worst-case scenario. SHANGHAI — As China approaches its once-a-decade senior leadership transition, structural weaknesses in the country’s economic model are becoming more apparent, even as the momentum surrounding progressive reforms appears to be incrementally increasing. A best-case scenario for China under the fifth-generation Communist Party leadership assumes a continuation of both trends, with the […]

Mauritania, and its periodic bouts of political instability, has important implications for the trajectory of secret U.S. military operations in Africa, as a recent article by Craig Whitlock in the Washington Post shows. American spy planes have flown out of Mauritania on and off for several years, but politics has sometimes constrained America’s role there. In 2008, for instance, a coup in Mauritania “forced Washington to suspend relations and end the surveillance,” Whitlock writes. Today, Mauritania’s potential significance to the U.S. military is increasing. In neighboring Mali, torn apart by a civil war since January, the Islamist group Ansar al […]

China has taken an atypically strong stand in opposing efforts to force the Syrian government to end its brutal repression of anti-regime protesters. But China, unlike Russia, with which it has joined to block measures seeking to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from office, is motivated primarily by principles rather than concrete strategic and economic interests in Syria. And China, unlike Russia, seems more open to changing its position. For the past two decades, Chinese leaders have typically opposed foreign military interventions seeking regime change. The Chinese government has traditionally sought to keep United Nations resolutions precisely worded to tightly […]

Since April, when two Tuareg rebel groups drove government forces out of northern Mali, the situation in the sparsely populated region has steadily worsened. The lightning advance of the National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA), which seeks independence for the Tuareg homeland, and Ansar Dine, which has an Islamist agenda, triggered a coup of disgruntled junior officers against President Amadou Toumai Touré, with the resulting political instability in Bamako leaving the army incapacitated and the rebels the effective rulers of roughly half the country’s territory. Though the two groups worked together to launch the rebellion, Ansar Dine […]

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has enjoyed a smooth ride since her inauguration in January 2011. Despite a series of corruption scandals that led to the resignation of seven of her cabinet members, she has suffered no real political damage after 18 months in office. But a flagging economy and a related crisis roiling small and medium-sized Brazilian banks could pose the greatest threat yet to her leadership. Rousseff’s Worker’s Party isn’t accustomed to operating under the politically corrosive effects of protracted economic troubles. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, has thrived under the party’s stewardship, recovering quickly from the financial crisis […]

With U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on a tour of the South Caucasus last week, hopes that Washington’s top diplomat could use the visit as an opportunity to push for regional peacemaking and democracy support were quickly overcome by events on the ground, underscoring the region’s volatility. Though Clinton’s meetings in Georgia were mostly low key, the brittle cease-fire between arch-nemeses Azerbaijan and Armenia was sorely tested by a series of clashes, fueling fears that another Caucasus war was in the offing. Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been rocky since the two former Soviet republics fought a war […]

Following the death of four French soldiers in Afghanistan on Saturday, French President François Hollande reaffirmed his decision to withdraw French combat forces from the country by the end of 2012, with the drawdown to begin in July. Hollande had already defended the move at last month’s NATO summit in Chicago, where it met with little public opposition from alliance members. Militarily, the withdrawal of French troops will have little impact on the war effort. The transition of security operations to Afghan security forces in France’s area of responsibility, Kapisa province, had already begun in March, and the roughly the […]

Following the United States’ restoration of diplomatic relations with Myanmar and the European Union’s relaxation of economic sanctions targeting Naypyidaw earlier this year, international investors have lined up to discuss opportunities for future investment in the resource-rich country, which boasts the world’s 10th-largest natural gas reserves. However, substantial hurdles must be overcome if Myanmar is to join the ranks of Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea as the next Asian tiger economy. In an address at the World Economic Forum in Bangkok earlier this month, Myanmarese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi raised a red flag for potential investors […]

COMBAT OUTPOST SABARI, Afghanistan — “Incoming! Incoming! Incoming!” droned the cold, mechanical voice of the warning system as the combat outpost’s radar detected another Taliban rocket launch. Soldiers ran for cover in the shelters that dot this little American army camp near the Pakistani border. Then three deep booms shook the ground as the rounds hit the hill behind the outpost. The Taliban almost always miss, but they try and try again almost every day, only to disappear afterward among the dusty Afghan hills. With the United States and its NATO allies looking ahead to 2014 as the date when […]