Briefing Archive

TRIPOLI, Lebanon — Conflict is escalating in Syria as the uprising there enters its 18 month. With clashes between government forces and rebels in recent weeks, tens of thousands of Syrians have fled to safety in neighboring Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. The United Nations estimates that some 30,000 Syrians have ended up as refugees in Lebanon because of the Syrian uprising. Wadi Khaled, a valley at the border in northern Lebanon, is one of the preferred areas through which Syrian refugees cross illegally into Lebanon. Most cross at night and with the help of cross-border smugglers. They arrive in need […]

The kidnapping of two Western journalists in northern Syria last month by foreign jihadists seems to affirm the Obama administration’s worst fears: Radical foreign fighters are entering the fray, bringing the potential to aggravate the conflict and further destabilize the region. With analysts estimating the presence of 200 or more extremist fighters in Syria, Washington has stuck to its policy of not providing arms to the Syrian opposition. In addition, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a secret decree earlier this year authorizing the CIA to help guide weaponry provided by Saudi Arabia and Qatar into the right hands — moderate, […]

After last week’s spike in naval bombardments on Kismayo, the southern Somali port city critical to the funding of al-Shabab, a heavily anticipated, large-scale military mobilization appears to be edging irrevocably closer. The looming confrontation comes at a critical time for Somalia as the country wraps up an eight-year transitional governance period and prepares to seat a new president. In a statement released on Aug. 14, the U.N. claimed, “fighting for control of the town appears imminent.” The bombardments from an unidentified ship, which reportedly claimed the lives of residents, are fuelling an exodus from the city. “That sort of […]

Following a series of activist protests, tensions are once again rising in East Asia over the ownership of a small, uninhabited archipelago that lies between Taiwan and Japan. The specifics of this recent episode highlight the depth of nationalist sentiments held among the peoples of China, Japan and even Taiwan when it comes to matters of national territory. This is not merely a dispute over fishing grounds and potential oil and gas deposits; it is a matter of historical grievances and national pride. On Aug. 15, the anniversary of the Japanese surrender in World War II, a group of activists […]

BEIJING — For China, diversification away from the dollar is a strategic priority that implies more than simply adjusting the currency composition of its foreign reserves. It also involves a wide range of measures aimed at side-stepping the U.S. currency and promoting the use of renminbi (RMB) in trade and investment. Nowhere is this shift more strategically significant than in commodities markets, where Beijing is building out the physical and financial infrastructure required to establish the RMB as the dominant currency for commodities in Asia. China’s efforts to diversify away from the dollar have been multifaceted. It is buying proportionately […]

An ongoing standoff in Kenya’s Coast province between the central government and the secessionist Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) could make the region a flashpoint for next year’s elections. Formed in 1999 to address the region’s marginalization, the MRC was designated by the government as an organized criminal group in 2010. Claiming this action unconstitutional, the MRC filed a case with the High Court in Mombasa, which last month ruled in the MRC’s favor. Nevertheless, the MRC has maintained its threats to boycott and otherwise disrupt Kenya’s March 2013 presidential and parliamentary elections if its demands are not met. The polls […]

South America’s history throughout the 1980s and 1990s is littered with the names of now-defunct currencies, such as the Argentine austral and the Brazilian cruzeiro. Now, an old vulnerability is re-emerging as an economic and political Achilles’ heel for several South American governments: exchange rates. Some are clamping down on citizens’ purchases of U.S. dollars, in attempts to prop up local money and stem capital flight. Others are promoting central bank dollar purchases and sales, or deploying derivatives contracts, to manage volatile exchange rates. Whether deployed to defend currencies, such as the Argentine peso and Venezuelan bolívar, or smooth the […]

In early July, Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), assembled Syrian Kurdish leaders in Irbil, Iraq, to broker a deal to unite Kurdish groups against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. By the end of the conference, the Supreme Kurdish National Council was born to represent Kurds in a post-Bashar al-Assad Syria. Turkey, which did not participate in the conference, initially welcomed the Kurdish unity: With the fall of Assad as the group’s primary goal, one that Turkey shares, unified Kurdish opposition would only hasten the end of the Syrian regime. However, Turkey’s perception of […]

Japan-South Korea relations appear to have reached their nadir with the unprecedented visit of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to the disputed Dokdo islets last week. Lee’s visit represents a dramatic escalation in the territorial dispute with Japan, which also claims sovereignty over the atoll, known in Japan as Takeshima. The visit marks the first time a South Korean head of state has made an official visit, a redline that had not been breached up until this point in order to avoid provoking a diplomatic crisis with Japan. Lee toured the atoll’s largest island, met with coast guard officials stationed […]

For 20 years, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has been the undisputed ruler of Ethiopia. Zenawi was the leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which in concert with its sister rebel group from Eritrea toppled the Moscow-aligned dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. He led his country in the 1998-2000 war against his former Eritrean allies and oversaw multiple Ethiopian military interventions into neighboring Somalia. An active and outspoken leader, Zenawi is also credited with a pragmatic approach to economic development despite his Marxist roots, resulting in an average of 9 percent GDP growth over the past 10 years. […]

Recent high-level visits by Russian officials to Islamabad and an upcoming trip by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first-ever by a Russian head of state since Pakistan’s independence, are highlighting Russia’s efforts to bolster strategic ties with the South Asian country. While looking to secure its near abroad in advance of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2014, Russia is also moving to deepen its geo-economic ties with South Asia as a whole, with Pakistan serving as a gateway for energy trade to the entire subcontinent. For Pakistan, Russia can not only help the civilian government in Islamabad […]

While foreign investors might be feeling a lot of uncertainty about Bolivia’s resource sector policy, one thing is perfectly clear: Bolivian President Evo Morales is firmly in control of any foreign-funded project seeking to develop the country’s natural resource wealth. And when partnerships with foreign investors turn sour, he has not hesitated to seize the underlying assets. That has occurred with surprising frequency this year. In the past four months, Bolivia has nationalized a Canadian company’s silver mine, a tin and zinc mine operated by the Swiss commodities giant Glencore and a Spanish electric grid operation. To say nothing of […]

With peril looming on both countries’ economic horizons, Sudan and South Sudan brokered a milestone oil-transit agreement over the weekend to the effusive praise of the international community. The deal represents a breakthrough after months of heightened tensions. South Sudan shut down oil production eight months ago over transit cost disagreements. Juba also accused the Khartoum government of siphoning southern oil and confiscating shipments in lieu of unpaid transit fees. In April, the two historical adversaries neared the brink of full-scale border war after South Sudan temporarily seized Sudan’s primary oil production site in Heglig. “Now was the time to […]

Editor’s note: This is the second in a two-part series examining the crisis of the global middle class. Part I examined the challenges facing the global middle class and the implications for international politics. Part II examines ways to strengthen the global middle class and avoid the potential dangers of economic polarization. The damage done to the global middle class, while significant, is not irreparable. The solutions are as varied as the countries themselves, but they all share several key features that influence whether a consumer-driven economy will flourish or not. First and foremost is access to capital for small […]

Editor’s note: This is the first in a two-part series examining the crisis of the global middle class. Part I will examine the challenges facing the global middle class and the implications for international politics. Part II will examine ways to strengthen the global middle class and avoid the potential dangers of economic polarization. When Mohammed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor, set himself on fire outside a local government office in December 2010, his desperate act set off an unexpected yet wide-ranging chain reaction throughout the region. Demonstrations that broke out in his small town spread all the way to […]

Though overshadowed by recent news coverage focusing on Iraq’s still-fragile security situation, the country’s political stalemate remains a matter of concern. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki refuses to share power with his rivals. But while Maliki’s relative influence is large, he is constrained by Iraq’s parliamentary and federal systems, a gift of the now-departed Americans. Meanwhile, his opponents are weakened by divisions over ethnicity, region, ideology and competing personal ambitions. As a result, they have been unable to remove Maliki from office or force him to yield back the powers he has steadily accrued during his six years as prime minister. […]

AZAAZ, Syria — As the fighting intensifies between government forces and the opposition Free Syrian Army for control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, the rebels are consolidating their hold over large tracts of territory elsewhere in northern Syria. Azaaz, an important city close to the Turkish border, fell to the FSA on July 19, after a month of heavy fighting. In that battle, government forces had been pushed back to a single compound, where they held out for weeks while the Syrian army tried to relieve them with tank incursions, helicopter gunships attacks and artillery shelling. Yet rebel forces managed […]