Briefing Archive

France has suddenly and shockingly found itself in the middle of the Iraq maelstrom that it had managed up until now to avoid. With its armed forces engaged in the U.S.-led air campaign against the Islamic State group and a French citizen killed by the group’s sympathizers in retaliation, Paris’ policy in Iraq and the region beyond is being put to the test. In a recent statement, as succinct as it was scathing, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the spokesman for the Islamic State group (also known as ISIS), called on the group’s recruits and supporters to target France and its citizens […]

Earlier this month, a boat carrying upward of 250 migrants toward Europe sunk off the coast of Libya. A week prior, an estimated 500 migrants were killed when their vessel was sunk by human traffickers off the Maltese coast. These are just the latest events in a year that has proven to be exceptionally deadly for migrants seeking to enter Europe. With over 3,000 people having drowned trying to enter Europe so far this year, there have been many calls for European nations and the European Union to do more to address the issues of migration and asylum. The dramatic […]

SHANGHAI—Since coming to power, the current Chinese government has steadily managed down both the rate of actual industrial expansion and expectations of future growth in the world’s second-largest economy, with a host of key economic indicators now at multiyear lows. Strikingly, however, in the face of what might be described as an industrial hard landing, job creation and income growth remain remarkably robust. There has never been a shortage of predictions of the impending collapse of the Chinese economy. But year after year, the country has defied the bears and continued its remarkable economic development faster than the majority of […]

Earlier this month, the United Kingdom and China announced the upcoming issuance of a U.K. government bond denominated in yuan, making the U.K. the first Western government to borrow in China’s currency. British and Chinese authorities noted that the funds raised by the bond will be used to add yuan to the U.K.’s foreign exchange reserves. While there was no indication as to how much London was looking to borrow, the move alone is a significant milestone for Beijing. Five years ago, the yuan had virtually no presence outside of China’s borders. But each year since, the currency has taken […]

It is still too soon to know what the Sept. 21 takeover of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, by a group known as the Houthis will mean for the country’s future and its internationally backed political transition. But in a matter of days, the Houthis have redrawn Yemen’s political map far more radically than the 2011 uprising that led to the ouster of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh after 33 years in power. So quickly did the Houthis rout tribal and Sunni Islamist militias and a military unit loyal to one of their fiercest rivals before signing a peace deal on extremely […]

On his visit to Vietnam in mid-September, Indian President Pranab Mukherjee assured his hosts that India would always be their “all-weather friend.” While some may read too much into the timing of that statement, delivered on the eve of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to India, agreements signed by India and Vietnam on energy and defense during Mukherjee’s visit are certain to get Beijing’s attention. After all, they come at a time when China and Vietnam have renewed negotiations over their maritime disputes in the South China Sea and as India pushes back against China’s plans for maritime expansion across […]

Last month, three high-ranking Rwandan military figures close to President Paul Kagame were arrested and charged with so-called crimes against state security. The military purges have fueled fears of a political crisis for Kagame with dissension among the ranks of his party and backers in the army. Although officers have been arrested in the past and former Kagame supporters have fled the country and openly opposed him, last month’s detentions reveal growing insecurity within the regime, particularly when viewed in conjunction with a crackdown on other internal suspects of what the government considers “subversion.” Kagame’s Tutsi-dominated regime, which came to […]

In July, just days before a New York court ruling put Argentina in default on a $539 million payment to creditors, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner signed an agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping whereby China would loan Argentina $11 billion worth of yuan, which the latter could use to either bolster its currency reserves or pay for imported Chinese goods. The first installment of $1 billion is expected by year’s end, according to the Buenos Aires daily La Nacion. The currency swap deal, as well as a secretive deal for a Chinese satellite-tracking station in Argentina, have drawn […]

As headlines in the Middle East continue to be dominated by the civil war in Syria and the rise of the Islamic State group, the region’s shifting geopolitics are also making their impact felt in other parts of the world. The Horn of Africa is a case in point, as illustrated earlier this month when Sudan closed Iranian Shiite cultural centers operating in the country and expelled a diplomat responsible for them. Sudan’s famously complex politics have long been influenced by the bitter rivalries of outside powers: the Soviet Union versus America during the Cold War; the Egypt of Nasser […]

Last week, European Commission President-designate Jean-Claude Juncker named the rest of his team of commissioners and their policy areas; Italian Foreign Minister Frederica Mogherini had already been given the post of European Union high representative for foreign policy, which also functions as a vice president of the commission. The latest announcements have generated a lot of discussion in EU circles about how the posts were distributed among candidates and countries. Appointments to the European Commission, the executive branch of the EU, are a complicated balancing act. Each of the 28 member states submits a candidate for the commission, and the […]

China pledged investments worth $20 billion to India and the two neighbors signed more than a dozen agreements and committed to settling their contentious border disputes during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s maiden official visit to India, which began Wednesday and ends today. Over the next five years, China promised to help India upgrade its rail system and put in place high-speed train corridors. It has also promised to invest in roads and two industrial parks in Gujarat and Maharashtra states, and to give more market access to products from India. The two nations called for better people-to-people ties and more […]

When President Barack Obama announced plans for calibrated U.S. air strikes in Iraq last week, he set off heated debates about the wisdom and chances for success of his strategy to “degrade, and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State group operating there and in neighboring Syria. This week, the White House announced another military deployment that, despite involving not air strikes but some 3,000 American boots on the ground, evinced barely a second glance: the medical humanitarian mission to West Africa to contain the ongoing outbreak of the Ebola virus there. The reason for the contrast in reactions is of course […]

As Boko Haram increasingly devastates northeastern Nigeria and crosses into Nigeria’s neighbors, Cameroon has attracted more international attention, both positive and negative. The International Crisis Group recently wrote that “Cameroon’s apparent stability and recent government reforms can no longer hide its vulnerabilities.” The report assesses the political risks of President Paul Biya’s apparent desire to remain in power indefinitely, despite his advanced age and lack of a clear succession plan. Alongside these medium-term risks are two short-term problems that deserve special scrutiny: the potential for destructive escalation in Cameroon’s fight with Boko Haram and the ambiguous effects of an aggressive […]

IRBIL, Iraq—As the United States is moving to broaden its war against militants of the so-called Islamic State, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), perhaps its most important ally is the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of northern Iraq. The reasons are clear: In a region where states have either imploded or where stability flows largely from dynastic rule, the KRG is stable, its politics are in the main moderate and pro-Western and it holds regular elections. Yet the KRG has its own strategic agenda, some of which is potentially problematic. And under its democratic facade, […]

Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces, armed and trained by NATO countries and backed by U.S. air support, form the vanguard of the international coalition’s ground operations in Iraq against the militants of the so-called Islamic State. But the Western support comes amid growing concern that the Kurds could use these arms and newly gained military know-how to secede from Iraq by force and form an independent Kurdish state once the Islamic State—also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)—is defeated. NATO countries have explicitly conditioned their military support on the Kurds remaining in Iraq and cooperating with the […]

In the first week of September, the Honduran military raised the Honduran flag over the disputed Conejo Island, quickly raising the ire of El Salvador’s government. The incident as well as other recent border disputes highlighted tensions within the region at a time when cooperation and collaboration are more important than ever. The timing of the flap was illustrative on a symbolic level as well: On Sept. 15, five Central American states—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua—will jointly celebrate 193 years of independence. Once united in a short-lived federation, the domestic and international politics of these five countries […]

On Sept. 3, France announced that it would suspend the delivery to Russia of the Vladivostok, a multipurpose amphibious warship of the Mistral class, until at least late October, and that the delivery would take place only if the situation in Ukraine improved. The move comes after months of acrimony among France’s European Union and NATO allies over the sale, which French President Francois Hollande was loathe to cancel due to the economic implications of forfeiting the $1.6 billion contract. Hollande inherited the Mistral problem from his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, who entertained good personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. […]