Column Archive

For the past year and a half, the Arab Spring has convulsed the Middle East. It has resulted in the overthrow of four leaders who only two years before seemed destined to rule for life, plunged another country into a fratricidal civil war and placed even long-established monarchies under renewed political and economic stress. What triggered this tsunami of political upheaval? And is it localized to the Arab world, or could it spread? It is no secret that authorities in Beijing and Moscow are playing close attention, attempting to ferret out any indications that a prerevolutionary situation may be building […]

When world leaders converge on Tehran next week to attend the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement, they will give the Iranian regime a desperately needed opportunity to display competence and confidence, and not a moment too soon. Expect bluster and grandstanding from Iran’s leaders, with a message aimed not only at the international community but also at a restless domestic audience. Behind the over-the-to taunts and frequent bravado, the reality is that the Islamic Republic is being squeezed on all sides. As if Iran’s leaders didn’t have enough on their hands with economic sanctions, talk of war and a besieged […]

Editor’s note: This will be Andrew Exum’s final “Abu Muqawama” column at World Politics Review. We’d like to take this opportunity to thank Andrew for his engaging analysis and to wish him continued success in his many endeavors. Green-on-blue violence — attacks on U.S. and allied forces by their Afghan partners — is the most serious tactical challenge to the NATO coalition since the war in Afghanistan began almost 11 years ago. The name “green-on-blue” derives from U.S. military war games in which “blue” forces are friendly, “red” forces are enemy and “green” forces represent those of the host nation. […]

Amid Syria’s widespread civil disorder, ongoing since March 2011, the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has pressed on with its policy of rapprochement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Political disputes, border tensions, demographic differences and personal animosities between their political leaders have troubled relations between Syria and Iraq for many years. For decades, relations were also strained due to the two neighbors’ traditional rivalry for pre-eminence in the Arab world, allegations of interference in each other’s internal affairs, disputes over oil transit fees and their stances on Israel, and suspicions that each side was aiding the opponents […]

Editor’s note: Ulrike Guérot is on a break. Guest columnist Richard Gowan will be writing the Continentalist while she is gone. A malaise has settled over diplomatic discussions of the Syrian civil war at the United Nations. Last week, there was confusion over whether the U.N. had a replacement for Kofi Annan as envoy to Damascus. Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi had been offered the post, but it was unclear whether he would accept it. While Brahimi eventually agreed to take the job, an anonymous U.N. source briefed that he wanted to get away from the “failed approach” tried by Annan. […]

The Obama administration took office in 2009 with high hopes that it would be able to break the diplomatic stalemate over Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Now, as the Obama team finishes its fourth summer with no resolution to the nuclear imbroglio in sight, it is a good time to take stock of its efforts. Obama’s national security team wanted to break out of what it saw as a binary choice between having to learn to live with a nuclear Iran or using force to end the Iranian nuclear program. The possibility of a third way beckoned: duplicating the terms of […]

In the space of a few short days, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has pulled off a lightning-swift realignment of the country’s political map. On Aug. 12, Morsi assumed powers as vast as those of his predecessor, the deposed dictator Hosni Mubarak. And, incredibly, he did it without immediately triggering either street protests or a countermove by Egypt’s erstwhile all-powerful military. The curiously quiet reaction — a nonreaction, really — from the military suggests the soft coup did not happen in a vacuum: Morsi probably laid the groundwork within some sectors of the armed forces. But if that may explain the […]

A new television show in the United States called “Stars Earn Stripes” puts various B-grade “celebrities” through military training in order to illustrate what it’s like to serve in the most elite units in the U.S. military. This show might not have been a bad idea immediately after the attacks of Sept. 11, when it seemed as if most Americans were largely ignorant of the roles and responsibilities of their military and its elite units. Such a show might have prompted more Americans to enlist in the military rather than follow the advice of their president and shop at the […]

For the first time in several decades, Iraq reclaimed its place as the second-largest OPEC oil producer in July. Iraq produced more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) over the month, surpassing Iran, whose production fell to 2.9 million bpd. The development resulted from a combination of Iraq’s gradually increasing oil output and Iran’s decreasing production due to the growing impact of international sanctions on Iran’s energy production sector. During the past five years, Iran’s oil production has decreased by about 1 million bpd due to various multinational and unilateral sanctions on its commercial activities. Meanwhile, Iraq’s output has […]

Editor’s note: Ulrike Guérot is on a two-week break. Guest columnist Richard Gowan will be writing the Continentalist while she is gone. The Syrian civil war is becoming simultaneously more brutal and more confusing. As the battle for Aleppo has dragged on and diplomatic efforts to forge a peace deal have been derailed, it has been hard to assess whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime are close to collapse or able to sustain a protracted war. Yet there is a growing sense that, if and when Assad falls, some sort of international peacekeeping force will likely be needed […]

Another version of the “Gratitude Doctrine” is emerging in U.S. foreign policy circles, this time with regard to Syria. As Liz Sly of the Washington Post recently reported, the United States is increasingly viewed by Syria’s rebels “with suspicion and resentment for its failure to offer little more than verbal encouragement to the revolutionaries.” This has led some U.S. observers to argue that if Washington does not do more to help the Syrian opposition in its fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it runs the risk that any new government that comes to power in Damascus after Assad’s fall will […]

The Sinai Peninsula might stand at the fringes of the Egyptian state, but it has often been the location of some of the country and the region’s transformative events. That is happening again. What occurs in the Sinai in the coming weeks and months will help answer many questions about Egypt’s future, including its relationship with Israel and Hamas, and the relative power of the Muslim Brotherhood and the military in the post-Mubarak era. The triangle of land on the shores of the Red Sea at the meeting point of Africa and Asia forms both the border and a buffer […]

Over the past several weeks, a series of articles have noted the absence of any discussion of the Afghanistan War in the U.S. presidential campaign. President Barack Obama might be avoiding the subject, but for better or worse, his policy is a matter of record. By contrast, GOP candidate Mitt Romney has yet to articulate an Afghanistan policy. Of course, it shouldn’t strike anyone as curious that the Romney campaign is as reluctant to talk about Afghanistan as the Obama administration. After all, the war is terribly unpopular. The administration has apparently determined the safest thing to do politically is […]

The back-to-back visits to India last month by U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, in charge of that country’s military-industrial complex, demonstrate the heightened competition for India’s defense import market, currently the largest in the world. India has been the leading global arms importer in recent years, with its weapons purchases totaling $12.7 billion from 2007-2011, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Over that period, 80 percent of India’s defense imports came from Russia, making New Delhi the leading purchaser of Russian arms. But Russian officials fear that various […]

Editor’s note: Ulrike Guérot is on a two-week break. Guest columnist Richard Gowan will be writing the Continentalist while she is gone. Is the European Union about to engage in a proxy war in the Sahara? In late-July, European foreign ministers directed EU officials to come up with “concrete proposals” for supporting an African stabilization force in Mali. There’s no doubt that Mali needs stabilizing: Islamist separatists with links to al-Qaida have seized the north of the country, and the south has been in political turmoil since a coup in March. What can the EU do to contain and resolve […]

There are several reasons why American presidential candidates include overseas trips as part of their campaigning. First, and particularly important for those aspirants who lack significant foreign policy experience, it allows American voters to get a preview as to how the candidate might represent the United States on the global stage by interacting with foreign leaders and communicating with international audiences. In 2008, then-Sen. Barack Obama’s jaunt across the Atlantic, especially his “rock star” rally in Berlin’s Tiergarten and his visit to U.S. troops in Iraq, was quite successful in positioning the junior senator from Illinois as a plausible world […]

Inch for square inch, no country in the Middle East wields as much influence as the minuscule and fabulously wealthy Emirate of Qatar. The emirate measures less than half the size of New Hampshire and sits on a most inhospitable piece of land. But its audaciously assertive leadership has leveraged Qatar’s two assets, money and location, to turn the tiny peninsula into a major player. Qatar has become a key mover of events in the fast-changing Arab world. Until recently, Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani has exercised his influence by strategically deploying money and diplomatic resources. Now, he has decided […]