Column Archive

Writing 10 years ago in Orbis magazine (.pdf), Ray Takeyh and I argued that, if a wave of democratization were to topple formerly pro-American autocrats in the Middle East, the new Arab democracies “would seek what they perceived to be equitable and fair relations with the United States, but object to . . . cumbersome American . . . demands, especially regarding Israel.” The speech delivered this week by Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, at the United Nations General Assembly has confirmed this analysis. Unlike Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose pronouncements before the international community regularly conform to […]

In the years that preceded the Arab Uprisings, the term “Islamist,” particularly in the West, often carried connotations of a monolithic movement. The word served as shorthand, but it blurred significant distinctions that have long existed within the movement. Political Islam has always included a variety of views, particularly regarding timing and tactics. Islamists have long held differing positions regarding the acceptability of violence, and they have stood at numerous points along an ideological axis that ranges from gradualism and moderation to fast-track radicalism. Since the fall of a number of Arab dictatorships, however, it has become even more apparent […]

The new weapons that sprouted on the battlefields of World War I ultimately revolutionized warfare. At the time of their appearance, however, most of them were used in a very traditional way, making old-fashioned infantry and artillery more effective rather than ushering in new ways of fighting. Airplanes spotted targets for artillery batteries, scouted for the infantry and provided close air support. There were some attempts at strategic bombing, but due to the limited payload and range of the aircraft of the time, it had little effect. Tanks, which first appeared in 1917, operated with infantry units as moveable machine […]

Yesterday marked the 16th anniversary of the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Although it has not become a campaign issue, ratification of the treaty will be a question facing the next U.S. presidential administration, with important implications for a wide range of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation goals. The CTBT prohibits all nuclear explosions, whether for military or other purposes, in any environment. As of today, 183 national governments out of 196 possible signatories have signed the CTBT, and 157 countries have ratified it. The treaty specifies, however, that it will only enter into force 180 days […]

How to manage trade relations with China, with an eye toward achieving reciprocity, is the million-dollar question on both sides of the Atlantic. The question was on prominent display at the 15th European Union-China summit last Thursday, where the two economic giants once again agreed to avoid protectionism, at least on paper. Trade between China and the EU rose to $556 billion in 2011, but grievances on both sides continue to weigh heavily on the relationship. At the summit, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao complained pointedly about the EU arms embargo against China as well as Brussels’ refusal to grant China […]

U.S. pundits commenting on the wave of protests that have swept across the Middle East this past week have tended to focus on “finger-pointing and partisan sniping,” as Greg Scoblete notes, with conservatives vaguely calling for Washington to show more “strength” and liberals advocating more “outreach.” Few have wanted to deal with a far more unpleasant reality: The de facto coalition of Turkey, Israel and “moderate” Sunni Arab states that for decades worked to advance U.S. interests in the region is disintegrating. The aftermath of the Iraq War and the outbreak of the Arab Spring were just the first tremors […]

One hot day last July, India — one of the world’s largest, fastest-growing economies — suddenly and unexpectedly ground to a halt. Unable to handle soaring electricity demand, much of the country’s electrical grid collapsed, leaving more than 600 million people without power. Observers abroad reacted in disbelief. At home, exasperated residents responded in a manner that tells us much about what electrical service has come to signify in emerging economies. A common joke asked, What do you call a power failure in Delhi? Answer: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In other words, an electrical failure is a power failure — […]

U.S. strategy in the Islamic world is teetering on collapse. Angry, often violent crowds from Morocco to Afghanistan attacked anything associated with the United States or the West during the past week, from embassies and schools to fast food restaurants. All indications are that the protests accurately reflect a deep and persistent anger toward the United States, one that can be easily manipulated for nefarious purposes. For decades, the United States was concerned with little but stability in the Islamic world, building partnerships with a sordid cast of monarchs, civilian dictators and military despots. While this approach continues to be […]

The large-scale anti-Japanese protests that swept across China over the weekend are likely to reach a crescendo today, as Sept. 18 marks the official Chinese anniversary of Japan’s invasion of China in 1931. The wave of public demonstrations was triggered by Tokyo’s announcement last week that it would purchase the disputed Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyu in China, from a private Japanese owner. The islands are claimed by China and Taiwan but controlled by Japan. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who is on a week-long tour in Asia, and other American officials have expressed concern that the escalating dispute between […]

In the not-too-distant future, should a continent-spanning republic ever emerge in Europe, historians will probably point to Sept. 12, 2012, as one of the game-changing days in the historic march toward such a goal: The German Constitutional Court effectively accepted the European Stability Mechanism (ESM); the European Commission made public its far-reaching plans for a European banking union; European Commission President José Mario Barroso declared that “the EU must strive to become a federation of nations states” in his State of the Union speech before the European Parliament; and finally, Dutch voters strengthened the country’s pro-European center, while paring back […]

Three separate incidents this week have all highlighted how the growing distraction in Washington over the upcoming U.S. presidential election is undermining U.S. diplomacy. The first has to do with the territorial dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands, possession of which confers exploitation rights to the lucrative fishing grounds and vast offshore hydrocarbon fields in the exclusive economic zone that surrounds them. The Japanese government earlier this week announced that it would buy the islands from the family that holds the deed to the property, raising tensions with China, which also claims the islands as the Diaoyou. […]

When Peruvian voters headed to the polls last year, the presidential election looked like a proxy contest for two radical views of the South American country’s future. Ollanta Humala, who emerged victorious, had left advocates of free-market economic policies feeling nervous due to his past support for the policies of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Humala had previously run for president as an anti-business socialist in 2006, and before that, he had attempted a military coup in 2000. Many voters worried he would take the country in a radical, populist, anti-market direction. More than a year later, Humala’s presidency could not […]

This October, U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney will debate defense policy. That debate has the potential to be path-breaking: The national security strategy crafted immediately after Sept. 11, which led the United States into Iraq and Afghanistan, has now run its course, creating the opportunity to re-examine the very foundation of American strategy, including the reasons why the United States uses military power as well as the ways that it does so. More likely, though, the presidential debate will avoid big questions and gravitate toward immediate problems like Iran, Syria, North Korea and the size of […]

At last week’s Moscow Nonproliferation Conference, organized by the Center for Energy and Security Studies, some 200 people, including a number of prominent Russian and Western experts, gathered to discuss a wide range of nonproliferation issues. Given the statements of the Russian speakers at the conference, Moscow is laying down some tough, albeit often understandable, conditions for making further progress in nuclear arms control. Sergey Ryabkov, the Russian deputy foreign minister who keynoted the conference, stressed the importance of strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Ryabkov insisted that what he called the treaty’s three core principles — nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament […]

It is common wisdom that foreign policy does not decide U.S. presidential elections, and few issues inspire less enthusiasm these days than a Europe stuck in a currency crisis that it seems unable to fix. Europeans are also very familiar with the growing American belief that Europe no longer matters at all in the global arena. As a result, few were expecting any emphasis on Europe or the European Union as one of America’s most steadfast strategic partners in President Barack Obama’s keynote speech at the Democratic Party convention last week. Still, Obama’s only reference to Europe came as a […]

President Barack Obama accepted the nomination of the Democratic Party to stand for a second term last night in Charlotte, N.C. But by adhering to the traditional schedule for the party’s convention, he excluded the possibility of attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vladivostok, Russia. Obama declined the invitation to attend this year’s APEC conclave because he would not have been able to deliver his keynote address in time to fly out to Russia’s Far East for the meetings. But, ironically, a key reason for speaking in Charlotte — to personally address tens of thousands of party activists […]

The Colombian rumor mill has been spinning for years with stories about secret negotiations between the government and Marxist guerrillas. With the buzz of speculation recently growing even louder, President Juan Manuel Santos confirmed in a speech to the nation on Aug. 27 that exploratory talks had, in fact, taken place. On Tuesday, Santos again went on national television to announce that peace talks between the Colombian government and the country’s main armed rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), will begin next month in Oslo, Norway, before moving later to Havana, Cuba. “It’s time to turn the […]