Column Archive

The ink was not dry on the agreement that the United States and its five partners signed with Iran over the weekend before criticism exploded. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it “a historic mistake,” while his economic minister, Naftali Bennett, said, “If five years from now a nuclear suitcase explodes in New York or Madrid, it will be because of the deal.” Former U.S. diplomat John Bolton called it “abject surrender.” And all of this is just the opening round: During the coming weeks there will be an outpouring of attacks on the agreement. The freshly signed deal is […]

China’s decision to establish an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) that encompasses its disputed islands with Japan is yet another attempt to expand its territorial claims by presenting neighboring countries with a fait accompli. These power plays aim to augment China’s regional position over time without provoking a major military confrontation or countervailing coalition. But in this case Beijing may have overreached and scored an own goal. Over the past few months, China has engaged in a sustained diplomatic campaign to exploit tensions between Seoul and Tokyo. As part of this effort, Beijing has deftly used its influence over North […]

The European Union, most often preoccupied with its economic problems over the past few years, grappled with two strategic challenges last week. The first involved a tug-of-war with Russia over Ukraine. The second centered on Geneva, where the union’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, chaired talks on Iran’s nuclear program. The EU appeared to fail the first test, as Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych stepped back from approving an association agreement with the bloc under pressure from Moscow. By contrast, the Geneva negotiations culminated in seeming success, as Tehran agreed to temporarily curtail its uranium enrichment in exchange for mild sanctions […]

For many in Washington, last month’s two-week shutdown of the federal government is already ancient history, replaced by a focus on the travails of the Obamacare website and feverish speculation about Hillary Clinton’s prospects as a presidential candidate in 2016. But the aftershocks of the shutdown continue to reverberate around the world. In particular, there is concern that President Barack Obama will have difficulty getting Congress, particularly a Republican-controlled House of Representatives, to vote in favor of giving his administration the flexibility it will need to conduct delicate negotiations, both with foes as well as with friends. The continuing negotiations […]

Fans of the television drama “Homeland” might have been surprised when in a recent episode one of the protagonists surfaced in Venezuela as a guest/prisoner of a sinister gang living in a crowded and dilapidated half-built Caracas high-rise. The espionage show normally focuses on Middle East terrorists and the CIA agents chasing them. But Venezuela’s strife and the sheer strangeness it produces proved hard to resist. The depiction, with its post-apocalyptic overtones was, of course, fictional, even though thousands of squatters do live in unfinished buildings in Venezuela, and crime levels are a growing threat. But there is no escaping […]

Today the U.S.-Israeli relationship, long a bedrock alliance for both nations, is rancorous and tense. Americans on the political right attribute this to the weakness or even incompetence of President Barack Obama, particularly concerning Iran. Portraying the problem as one of personalities or political inclinations may keep pundits employed, but it misses the bigger and more important picture. The United States is, in fact, “pursuing a policy agenda in the Middle East that is increasingly divergent from Israeli interests,” but this reflects more than just a predilection of the Obama administration. The divergence between the two old allies reflects deep […]

The Chinese government has been unabashedly showing off its nuclear weapons this past month. The most noteworthy display was unprecedented TV coverage in late-October of China’s nuclear submarines conducting combat drills, accompanied by a photo spread profiling the subs’ activities. Chinese media justified the display as reinforcing deterrence against foreign threats and meeting Western demands for military transparency. One can debate whether this selective transparency, which builds on previous exposures of China’s new stealth planes and other new military capabilities, is meant as a warning to Washington and Tokyo not to challenge Beijing’s territorial claims, a message primarily for internal […]

Did the liberal international order get a little less liberal last week? Western diplomats and human rights activists faced an accumulation of challenges across the United Nations system. On Tuesday, the General Assembly elected a clutch of repressive regimes—including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam—to the Human Rights Council. On Friday, African countries forced a showdown in the Security Council over the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) pursuit of Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice President William Ruto for stirring up election-related violence in 2007, accusing the U.N. of disrespect for Africa. To pessimistic observers, these developments are symptomatic of a […]

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent “reassurance tour” of America’s Middle East partners was not a resounding success. Kerry’s attempts to convince skeptical allies that the United States remains committed to their security and well-being, interrupted in part by the secretary’s decision to travel to Geneva to attend the second round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program, were confronted with concerns that the United States lacks both strategic focus and staying power. Writing in Gulf News, Linda S. Heard opined, “The U.S. is currently bleeding trust with many of its regional allies.” On Egypt, Syria, Israel-Palestine and Iran, U.S. […]

The debate over whether America is the world’s indispensable nation will continue, but when it comes to the Middle East nobody is waiting for the answer. Washington’s gradual but steady retreat from its once-unabashed exercise of influence in the region has sparked a rush by second-tier powers to fill the vacuum that has resulted. As the U.S. holds back, other nations are raising their profile, hoping to gain from Washington’s reluctance to play a larger role. The more passive the U.S. becomes, the more assertive others grow. To be sure, the U.S. remains far and away the most influential outside […]

In the shrinking U.S. defense establishment there is one growth area: cyberwarfare. The military’s Cyber Command plans to quadruple in size by 2015, adding 4,000 additional personnel, while all of the other combatant commands are likely to become smaller. The Navy is doubling its own cyber force, and the other services are likely to keep pace. This much growth will not be easy—finding, keeping and focusing cyberwarriors will remain challenging for the U.S. military. States have always needed soldiers and sailors. And while every society has a few people inherently attracted to danger and discomfort, there are never enough of […]

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip this week to Vietnam and South Korea, which follows last week’s unprecedented foreign and defense ministerial meeting in Japan, testifies to Moscow’s continuing efforts to raise its profile in Asia. Last year, Russia hosted its first Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference; the previous year, it joined the East Asian Summit. Half of Russia’s arms exports flow to Asian countries, which also buy Russia’s oil and gas as well as its civil nuclear technologies. Like their Western counterparts, Russian analysts consider that demographic, economic and other trends will make the Asia-Pacific the world’s most important region […]

Lists of African success stories do not tend to include Chad. More than half of the country’s citizens live below the poverty line. According to data collected by the United Nations, most have spent less than two years at school. From 2008 to 2010, the European Union and U.N. deployed peacekeepers to the country’s unstable eastern border with Sudan. At one point, rebels managed to assault the capital, N’Djamena. Yet this year, Western powers and the U.N. have turned to Chad to help manage new crises in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR). The supposed basket case has suddenly […]

Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to Saudi Arabia earlier this week to mend fraying U.S. ties with the kingdom, which remains one of America’s key partners in the Middle East. At the end of his visit, in a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud, Kerry declared that U.S.-Saudi ties are “strategic” and “enduring.” But if the Obama administration now believes that things are back on track, it should reconsider that assessment. Given the current overlap between Washington and Riyadh’s regional and global interests, both countries will continue to work closely together, but the coming years will […]

Add Hamas to the list of regimes teetering precariously in the Middle East. The Palestinian Islamist organization that rules Gaza and remains officially committed to the destruction of Israel is losing friends, running out of cash and struggling to come up with effective military tactics. Even more crucially, it is losing popular support as its foes are preparing to take it on. A group of Gazans opposed to Hamas rule has called for mass demonstrations on Nov. 11, the anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s death, openly aiming to remove Hamas from power. The organization calls itself Tamarod, “rebellion” in Arabic and […]

Last week, a U.S. drone strike killed Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of Pakistan’s sociopathically violent Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) movement. The organization has murdered thousands, often relying on indiscriminant suicide bombs; has trained terrorists to attack the United States; and has remained closely aligned with al-Qaida. No one among the civilized will lament Mehsud’s passing. But because the United States did it, Pakistan has responded with outrage. Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan called the U.S. action “a conspiracy to sabotage the peace talks” with the TTP—even though almost no one thinks those talks had much chance of success. Islamabad lodged a […]

Turkey’s decision to buy a Chinese-made air-and-missile defense system has aroused undue anxiety about Ankara’s ties with Beijing. While the purchase of the untested Chinese system is unhelpful from the perspective of NATO interoperability as well as Turkey’s protection, Ankara and Beijing see the deal primarily as a business transaction rather than as a precursor to closer security ties. The Chinese firm simply offered better co-production, technology transfer and pricing terms than did the competitors. Turkey’s acquisition program aims to establish a national air-and-missile defense system that can intercept incoming ballistic missiles inside the atmosphere. On Sept. 26, after years […]