Column Archive

President Barack Obama, according to pundits, is losing the Middle East. The charge recalls those leveled after Mao Zedong’s 1949 victory in the Chinese civil war, when anti-communists in the United States accused the Truman administration of “losing China.” While advocates of this position never explained how any feasible level of U.S. support could have staved off Chiang Kai-Shek’s defeat, the idea that refusing to back friendly dictators leads to preventable strategic disasters subsequently became ingrained in American thinking. It later inspired Lyndon Johnson’s refusal to disengage from Vietnam even when it became clear that the Saigon regime could not […]

Thus far, China’s policy toward Afghanistan has followed Deng Xiaoping’s famous adage regarding how China should conduct itself in the international arena: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.” But the planned withdrawal of most, if not all, Western combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of this year will require Beijing to consider new scenarios and approaches in the country. Chinese analysts recognize that on balance Beijing has benefited from the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan since, unlike many […]

It is an absolute certainty that 2014 will be a turbulent year for the United Nations. The organization is struggling with crises ranging from the chaos in the Central African Republic (CAR) to the plight of Syrian refugees. There is little hope that these challenges will dissipate soon. Yet two sets of peace talks this month could well decide whether the U.N. faces a truly dreadful year ahead, or just a very difficult one. The first is already underway in Addis Ababa, where emissaries of the South Sudanese government and its opponents may or may not manage to reverse their […]

Many commentators have described 2013 as a “lost year” for the Obama administration. The enthusiasm generated by the second inaugural quickly dissipated in continued stalemates with Congress, culminating in the government shutdown in October. No major pieces of legislation were passed, nor did the United States spearhead new international initiatives. Some of this can be attributed to the famed “second-term curse.” As I noted in these pages after the president’s re-election, “Every second-term president over the past 30 years—Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush—overestimated the amount of political capital their re-election generated, and each was also distracted by […]

Few countries have claimed for themselves the mantle of revolution as frequently and as fervently as Mexico. Previous efforts brought change, even revolutionary change, but failed to lift large parts of the population out of chronic poverty. That is about to change. Over the past 12 months, Mexico has launched a series of urgently needed but long-delayed fundamental reforms. Because of that, it now stands on the cusp of enormous change. The world is about to witness a country enter a phase of dazzling economic growth, with concurrent social change. The formula for tapping Mexico’s vast potential was never a […]