Column Archive

Imagine that somewhere in the world, the leaders of a nation or an extremist organization are meeting to plot ways to confront America. The more astute thinkers among them would have carefully studied U.S. strategy over the past 75 years, looking for America’s strengths and weaknesses and drawing lessons. One lesson they might draw is that trying to intimidate the United States by direct attacks on American soil doesn’t work. The Japanese found this out after Pearl Harbor, as did al-Qaida after 9/11. But striking U.S. military forces deployed to places with limited American national interests can shift U.S. policy—think […]

Some of the Trump administration’s most recent foreign policy pronouncements have put Venezuela, perhaps the biggest crisis in the Western Hemisphere, front and center. The statements signal that the administration is not only placing more importance on Venezuela, but also that it is attempting a much-needed course correction. Last week, in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, President Donald Trump spoke at length about the political and economic unrest in Venezuela, outlining Washington’s new approach. On the evening before the speech, Trump met with a group of Latin American leaders, and Venezuela was topic No. 1 ahead of […]

A week ago, U.S. President Donald Trump stunned the world with his bellicose speech before the United Nations General Assembly. Days later, with the fallout from his remarks still hanging in the air over New York, Pyongyang and Tehran, he abruptly changed the subject. In a stump speech in Alabama on Friday and later on Twitter, Trump called out professional football players who have been kneeling during the playing of the national anthem to protest police brutality against black Americans. The storm of controversy he set off has puzzled foreign observers unfamiliar with the arcana of America’s culture wars, and […]

Iraqi Kurds voted for independence on Monday, a move that generated controversy within their semiautonomous territory of northern Iraq and threats from powerful neighbors Turkey and Iran, and most of all the Iraqi government in Baghdad. All three are bent on preventing any further steps on the road to Kurdish statehood. Some Iraqi Kurds themselves would even have preferred to give priority to economic and political reforms before pushing for full independence. It was easy to come up with many reasons for why the referendum was ill-advised, or why the prospects for true independence will remain poor. All that criticism […]

The opening of the United Nations General Assembly has historically been a chance for world leaders to trade platitudes about peace. This year’s edition of the U.N. jamboree may have increased the risks of a major conflict in Asia. U.S. President Donald Trump told the assembly that he would “have no choice but to totally destroy” North Korea if the U.S. is “forced to defend itself or its allies” from Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. In the days that followed, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, threatened to punish the “dotard” Trump, and its foreign minister told the General Assembly […]

The chances of a major war involving the United States are higher today than at any time since early 2003. Seldom a week goes by without a new missile or nuclear test by North Korea. President Donald Trump and his top advisers have stated categorically that they will not allow North Korea to develop the capability to attack the American homeland, preventing it by force if necessary. In a speech this week to the United Nations General Assembly, Trump vowed to “totally destroy” North Korea if it threatens the United States or its allies. These shocking words demonstrate how dangerous […]

When U.S. President Donald Trump delivered his fiery first speech at the United Nations General Assembly this week, one person in the audience watched with particular interest, bracing herself for what would come next. After all, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, knew it would be her job to deal with the fallout of her boss’s words, which, predictably, kicked up a storm of controversy. In a surprising twist during a presidency filled with surprises, Haley has become the face of American diplomacy in the age of Trump. It is Haley who has to take Trump’s coarse ideas […]

Russia kicked off much-anticipated military exercises this week involving either 12,700 troops—the upper limit to avoid a treaty-required NATO observation mission—or more than 100,000, depending on whether you believe the Kremlin or NATO officials. The live-fire Zapad 2017, or West 2017, exercises, conducted jointly with Belarus, portray a conflict with unidentified Western forces in a scenario that, again, is either a defensive operation or an invasion, depending on who you believe. In either case, despite an almost deadly missile misfire, the drills are being rightly billed as a showcase for Russia’s decade-long military modernization initiative. Launched following the disappointing performance […]

In the war against terrorism, U.S. diplomacy, defense and intelligence all work together, in what can be an impressive integration of capabilities across the national security enterprise. But balance is key, and recent reports that the CIA wants to expand its combat role, with greater authority to conduct drone strikes, raise questions about who should lead the fight against terrorism and how to navigate among competing players and institutions. To date, the war against the self-proclaimed Islamic State has provided ample evidence of how the big national security machine can work across its various disciplines and agencies. Sure, there are […]

Antonio Guterres is growing a little less enigmatic. Since becoming secretary-general of the United Nations in January, Guterres has often been a rather opaque figure. As I noted in July, he “tends to take decisions with a small circle of advisers, sidelining perplexed U.N. officials he thinks are not up to snuff.” There has been a good deal of grumbling in the U.N. Secretariat about the new chief’s management style, while human rights advocates have faulted him for failing to speak out strongly enough on global injustices. But with world leaders gathering for a week of high-level meetings in New […]

It is always better to deter an adversary than to fight, but doing so can be a tricky thing. For deterrence to work, adversaries must believe that if they cross some line, they will fail or be punished. In the broad sense, deterrence demands the tangible capability to punish a transgression, along with credibility and clear communication that some specified action will be punished. That may seem simple, but it is not, at least for the United States. The American political system can make it hard to communicate resolve to an adversary. A president may say one thing while other […]

The meeting in the White House last week between the ruler of Kuwait and President Donald Trump set off a flurry of diplomatic activity. For a moment, it appeared as though it might lead to an opening for resolving the three-month-old dispute that has divided U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, with Qatar on one side and a Saudi-led bloc of four countries on the other. Hopes were dashed, however, when the efforts collapsed into even more bitter acrimony between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. But this time, there was a new twist in the dispute: Some of the invective, though […]

Is the European Union finally out of the woods? Two years after the refugee and migrant crisis drove a continent-wide populist backlash, the existential threat to the union seems to be over. Optimism over signs of economic recovery is spreading, and the political landscape, though permanently altered in some places, seems to be recovering from the seismic upheaval of the past few years. Most importantly, the Franco-German partnership, historically the political motor of the EU’s development, seems to have regained its relevance, with both countries on solid footing domestically and in tandem. But many of the underlying challenges facing the […]

These are difficult days for U.S. diplomacy. In the two biggest global challenges, North Korea and Syria, the United States hasn’t had any easy successes lately. When President Donald Trump has decided to lead, as on the smaller, intra-Arab showdown in the Gulf, the parties paid only the briefest respect for his effort and then resumed their feud. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s attempts to reform the State Department—some of them credible and desirable—could reduce its capacity to represent American leadership around the world. If there was any doubt about America’s reduced global standing, the North Korean crisis provides […]

Russia is flexing its diplomatic muscles at the United Nations again. Moscow appears intent on using the U.N. to complicate American efforts to put pressure on North Korea and sow confusion over its own intentions toward Ukraine. Western diplomats should be alert, because Russia is a fine player of the U.N. game. World leaders gather in New York next week for the new U.N. General Assembly session. All eyes will be on U.S. President Donald Trump. His Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will be absent. But Moscow knows how to make its presence felt in New York. Just days after Putin […]

Frustration with the stalemate in Afghanistan has broadened the domestic debate over U.S. strategy there. For the time being, President Donald Trump remains committed to the general approach taken by the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. But options that seemed unthinkable a few years ago, like outright disengagement, are now on the table. As this unfolds, one out-of-the-box proposal in particular has sparked intense discussion among security experts: a plan to replace American troops with contractors. The most prominent proponent of this idea, Erik Prince, is a former U.S. Navy SEAL with connections in the Trump administration. Prince is […]

In recent years, while different regions of the world fought battles against extremism, disease or the rise of authoritarianism, Latin America waged its own pivotal war against what has been arguably the region’s greatest scourge: corruption. Now, after a string of victories that would have been unimaginable only a few years ago, the conflict faces a make-or-break challenge in the very place where it was born, Guatemala. Guatemala’s president, Jimmy Morales, has put the lie to his campaign promise to stand against corruption and in support of the rule of law, and is now threatening the institution that made it […]