Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.
China’s expanding economic footprint in Latin America over the past 25 years has driven economic growth and shifted the geopolitical narrative across the region. But that engagement is now shifting as priorities change in China, Latin America and the U.S., at a time when Chinese growth is slowing and U.S.-China tensions are rising.
Is the United States’ era of global leadership over? From war to famine, the world is on fire and a lack of political will on the part of Washington is being blamed. But rather than demonstrating a lack of will, U.S. President Joe Biden can be seen as a savvy grand strategist who recognizes the new limits of U.S. power.
Ecuador’s grave security crisis could prove pivotal for the future of the country’s democracy. Similar crises across Latin American have created the temptation to toss out democracy as the cost of regaining security, as has been on most prominent display in El Salvador. For Ecuador, the stakes for could not be higher.
Efforts to explain why relations between Russia and the EU collapsed over the past decade have taken a closer look at previously neglected historical factors. But one development that perhaps represented the first step toward the current crisis between Moscow and Europe is overlooked: the Moldova-Transnistria war over 30 years ago.
There are many negative consequences of China’s accelerated population decline. But while China’s demographic crisis looks like that of other neighboring countries, it is coming at a lower level of economic development, and the problems it poses are exacerbated by some of the unique characteristics of China’s political system.
Six months before Mexico’s presidential election, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s approval rating is sitting at 55 percent. But a string of corruption allegations against his family and party have put AMLO on the defensive in recent weeks, chipping away the teflon coating that has protected him during his five years in office.
At a time when the global order is in flux, it is notable that the drivers of many of the core security challenges in the world today are not, in fact, states. From Hamas to the Houthis movement, to Taiwan and Kosovo, the world is dotted by “quasi-” or “de facto” states. What does that mean for the role of the nation-state?
Attempts to subvert democracy have become a staple of our time. But amid this deeply worrisome trend is an encouraging development: Those attempts appear to be failing, as those who support democracy get better at defending it. Consider Guatemala, where a soft coup was defeated by the country’s citizens and international pressure.
Under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo has been unable to do anything more than react to crises around Egypt’s borders. With concerns growing over Egypt’s own stability, that has created a vicious cycle, increasing the likelihood that the chaos around it further exacerbates Egypt’s own internal problems.
On Dec. 28, South Africa filed a claim with the International Court of Justice alleging that Israel’s actions in Gaza since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 amount to genocide against the Palestinian population. Both Israel and the U.S. have called the case a distraction. They’re right, but not for the reasons they claim.
Last week, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa formally declared that the country is in a state of “internal armed conflict” against criminal gangs. But Ecuador’s security crisis is not internal at all. Regional and global trends have directly contributed to causing it, and its impact also extends beyond the country’s borders.
The recent controversy over antisemitism on U.S. campuses highlights the role U.S. universities play in maintaining the country’s global status. More than material resources, like state-of-the-art classrooms, it is the campus culture of open inquiry and expression that enables U.S. universities to serve as sources of soft power.
One year ago, Brazil experienced what looked its own version of the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol Insurrection in Washington. Since then, though, the two countries, whose political dramas had momentarily converged, moved in completely different directions. Today, Brazilian democracy appears to have stabilized. American democracy has not.
With the international system stretched to the breaking point, the world’s attention remains focused on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the questions of moral legitimacy they raise. However, conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia are also setting precedents that will further erode the moral and legal constraints on state and nonstate actors.
After a year of important gatherings for the Chinese Communist Party, starting with the 20th Party Congress in October 2022 that named Xi Jinping to an unprecedented third term as general secretary, 2023 ended not with a bang, but with a whimper: The “third plenum,” often used to announce important reforms, didn’t take place.
As 2024 begins, two of the world’s most important shipping routes—the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal—both face threats that require a global response. The two challenges aren’t alike. But given their effects on global trade, it’s worth asking, What if we treated them with a similar sense of urgency, strategy, attention and resources?