Q & A Archive

On the merits of this article, Radio France International contacted me last Thursday to do a telephone interview on the EU debt agreement, for a piece that aired on Friday. So far the deal hasn’t been entirely outrun by events, but it looks like that might soon be the case. I’m tempted to say that without a solid European growth horizon, no virtual package is going to do the trick. On the other hand, eventually the numbers will be large enough to cover the basic math of the crisis, because it feels like the political tipping point regarding a European […]

I had the pleasure of participating in France 24’s panel discussion program, The World This Week, last Friday. The other panelists were the IHT’s Anne Bagamery, AFP’s Dave Clark and RTL 4’s Stefan de Vries. Topics included the EU debt crisis agreement, Tunisia’s elections and the emergence of democratic Islamism in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and the end of NATO’s mission in Libya. Part one can be found here. Part two can be found here. It was a fun and informative discussion. I was especially surprised to learn from Stefan, who was in Brussels covering the EU summit, […]

Tuareg fighters who fought for former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi were reported earlier this month to have returned to Mali to start a new rebel group. In an email interview, Baz Lecocq, professor of history at Ghent University, discussed Tuareg rebel groups. WPR: What are the main Tuareg rebel groups, and what are their main objectives? Baz Lecocq: Beginning with the start of decolonization in the 1950s, groups of Tuareg have protested, violently or otherwise, about their inclusion in Africa’s newly independent states, especially in Mali and Niger. In the 1990s, Tuareg in Mali and Niger engaged in protracted guerrilla […]

In an apparent throwback to the Cold War era, Germany recently arrested a married couple suspected of acting as a sleeper cell on behalf of Russian intelligence. The news flew mainly below the radar of the English-language media, and it remains to be seen how German-Russian relations may be affected. But the arrests mark the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall that suspected Russian spies have been arrested on German soil. For Ben Judah, a London-based policy fellow and Russia specialist with the European Council on Foreign Relations, that highlights an evolving challenge facing the Russian intelligence […]

European Union leaders have yet again come up with a detail-free plan to address the European debt crisis, with the hope being that this one with be massive enough to have the needed “shock and awe” effect to calm markets. Whether or not it will be enough to have more than an immediate impact remains to be seen. How will European banks recapitalize without consolidating their holdings, at a time when bank shares have been falling? Who will actually pony up the money to reinforce the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)? How realistic is the Greek austerity budget? And how […]

While no fewer than 80 political parties participated, Hizb Ennahda, a once-banned Islamist party, has emerged as the major winner in Tunisia’s first election since the ouster early this year of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennahda’s dominance — winning roughly 43 percent of the seats in Tunisia’s new Constituent Assembly — can best be explained by what Christopher Alexander, a leading Tunisia scholar and political scientist at Davidson College in North Carolina, calls the “cultural authenticity vote.” Alexander told Trend Lines on Wednesday that “there are Tunisians who frankly are not that religious, but supported Ennahda because they […]

Anti-Roma riots erupted in Bulgaria last month, following a death linked to an alleged Roma crime boss. In an email interview, Martin Kovats, a special adviser to the European Commission on Roma issues, discussed the European Union’s Roma policy. WPR: What are the main areas of concern regarding the Roma in Europe, from the perspective of both human rights advocates and national governments? Martin Kovats: For human rights advocates, the persistence of disadvantage among and discrimination against the Roma raises questions about the utility of rights to deliver social change. National governments have a range of perspectives, as the political […]

A recent wave of economic prosperity in Argentina may have swept incumbent President Cristina Kirchner to a second term last weekend. But with the election now past, some observers are questioning how long Kirchner can maintain subsidy-heavy policies supporting her nation’s growth and, more importantly, how long she can hold onto the positive public opinion that has accompanied that growth. Argentina’s economic success of recent years, says Karen Hooper, a Latin America analyst with the private intelligence company STRATFOR, “has been strong because of strong stimulus policies from the government.” Such policies center largely on subsidies for energy and food, […]

Last month, South Africa unveiled the first-ever military plane to be designed and produced by an African country. In an email interview, John Dunne a specialist in defense economics at the Bristol Business School, discussed South Africa’s arms industry. WPR: What is the recent trajectory and current state of South Africa’s domestic arms industry? John Dunne: South Africa’s arms industry has been through considerable change since the end of apartheid rule. After serving as a comprehensive system supporting the apartheid state, it was allowed to decline under the post-apartheid government, with the state procurement and production entity Armscor being split […]

Paraguay deployed troops into its northern provinces earlier this month in an attempt to contain an outbreak of guerrilla attacks. In an email interview, David Spencer, a professor at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at National Defense University, discussed Paraguay’s guerrillas. WPR: What is the background of the guerrilla movements in Paraguay? David Spencer: There is currently one group of guerrillas active in Paraguay, the Paraguayan Popular Army (EPP). The movement began in the historically neglected area around Concepcion in 1990, shortly after the fall of the Alfredo Stroessner government. Leftist opposition groups supporting land reform on behalf of […]

The return of Gilad Shalit to Israel in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners this week signaled a cooperation not seen between Israel and Hamas for nearly a decade. According to Daniel Levy, who co-directs the New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force in Washington, the deal may well discredit ongoing narratives that it is simply not possible to deal with Hamas. However, says Levy, outside observers should take care not to read too deeply into the swap in the context of the wider conflict between Israel and Palestine. “I think it says almost nothing — and almost certainly […]

Indonesia and India launched negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement at the first Indonesia-India Biennial Trade Ministers’ Forum held earlier this month. In an email interview, David Brewster, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defense Studies Center, discussed India-Indonesia relations. WPR: What is the recent history of India-Indonesia relations? David Brewster: Political and economic ties between India and Indonesia have been quite thin for most of their modern history. Although their leaders shared many ideals at independence, the two countries later became rivals in the Non-Aligned Movement and developed quite different strategic orientations. However, for […]

Some 3,000 U.S. and Filipino marines have begun two weeks of joint training drills, including a hostile beach-assault exercise near the Spratly Islands — a patchwork of islets and atolls at the center of maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. While U.S. military officials assert the drills are not aimed at China or any other country as a specific target, Marvin Ott, an Asia expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, says they represent an obvious strategic move by Washington to counter growing Chinese efforts to claim sovereignty and exert dominance over the South China Sea. […]

Turkey’s energy minister announced earlier this month that the state-owned gas company BOTAS would not renew a gas deal with Gazprom when it expires in December due to a pricing dispute. In an email interview, Hasan Selim Ozertem, a researcher at Turkey’s International Strategic Research Organization, discussed Turkey-Russia energy relations. WPR: What is the nature of Turkey and Russia’s energy relationship, including gas and nuclear energy? Hasan Selim Ozertem: Russia is Turkey’s main energy supplier, with their energy relationship dating back to the Cold War period. In the post-Soviet era, relations have been positive, particularly in the area of natural […]

The deployment of 100 U.S. troops to advise in the fight against Central Africa’s Lord’s Resistance Army has triggered speculation about the precise role such troops will play and the extent to which they may engage in combat without express congressional approval. It’s generally agreed the troops are Special Forces sent to help Ugandan and Congolese soldiers gather intelligence and coordinate logistics. But questions remain about how far they’ll go toward using more robust U.S. capabilities, like UAV drones, to potentially take down the LRA’s notoriously violent leader, Joseph Kony. “A possible scenario,” according to Geoffrey Corn, a former military […]

Mexico’s economy minister sent China a formal letter last month expressing concern over unfair trade practices used by certain Chinese firms to avoid customs duties. In an email interview, Rhys Jenkins, a specialist in China’s trade relations with Latin America at the University of East Anglia, discussed the trade relationship between China and Mexico. WPR: What is the history of China-Mexico trade ties? Rhys Jenkins: Trade between Mexico and China has grown spectacularly over the past decade from a little more than $3 billion in 2000 to almost $50 billion in 2010. The trade balance, however, has been massively in […]

Earlier this month, Brazil sent 300 troops to join UNIFIL, the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon. In an email interview, Kai Michael Kenkel, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, discussed Brazil’s peacekeeping operations. WPR: What is the history of Brazil’s involvement in international peacekeeping missions? Kai Michael Kenkel: Brazil is a strong supporter of the U.N. and started participating very early in U.N. peace operations, notably the U.N. Special Committee on the Balkans in 1947 and the U.N. Emergency Force (UNEF) in 1956 following the Suez crisis, which was […]