WPR Blog Archive

Not a lot of added value in this post, but I wanted to flag some Russian news items of recurring or semi-recurring interest. French FM Bernard Kouchner used President Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration yesterday to reiterate France’s desire for a “new tonality” in the EU-Russian relationship. In particular, Kouchner emphasized Europe’s willingness to take Moscow’s concerns into account, and called Russia “. . .a part of [Europe’s] future.” The declaration reads at the same time as a call for Russia to put aside its confrontational posture, but also as a reassurance of Europe’s good intentions. Also, the U.S. and Russia signed […]

Another thing that complicates the scenario of the “Rise of the Rest” or the birth of a “BRIC identity” is that many of the emerging powers are as much strategic rivals as they are tactical partners. Just yesterday, for instance, India successfully tested a nuclear-capable ballistic missile with a range of 3500 km. That’s a range that’s designed more for catching Peking’s attention than Islamabad’s. Similarly, India recently announced plans to reinforce and modernize its military presence along the Sino-Indian border. As much as trans-Atlantic relations can get bumpy from time to time, that’s one area where the West has […]

There’s been some thought-provoking discussion of the various analytical models of the world order over the past few weeks. Steve Clemons summarized the “next faultline in foreign policy combat” as “The U.S. matters” vs. “No, it really doesn’t.” Sam Roggeveen has some thoughts along with the relevant links here, including this John Ikenberry response to Clemons’ original post. Obviously, this is a fertile moment in foreign policy theorizing, in part because of the enormous shifts in economic activity taking place, but also because it’s still very uncertain how those shifts will translate into the sphere of real power and influence, […]

Two very interesting posts over at the Lowy Interpreter on how Americans present themselves to and are perceived by non-Americans (in this case, Aussies). The first discusses Americans’ tendency towards self-deprecation and self-criticism (particularly, but not exclusively, in terms of foreign policy); the second suggests that this is both a cover for “an unwavering belief in [our] pre-eminence” and a poker-playing culture’s technique for eliciting information based on the listener’s reaction. Significantly, the first is based on American officials encountered in Australia, whereas the second is based on American private citizens encountered in America, which might explain for the different […]

As part of tomorrow’s inauguration ceremony for Gazprom’s new president Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian military will parade its big ticket hardware through Red Square for the first time since, well, the square was truly Red. It’s the culmination of a year’s worth of Russian flexing of its military muscle, which also saw the reintroduction of long range bomber patrols and Russian naval exercises in the Mediterranean and off the North Atlantic coast. As an indication of how seriously Moscow takes tomorrow’s display, the cobblestones in Red Square have been reinforced to resist the Topol missile system’s hundred […]

Of course, one of the predictable consequences of the increasingly effective Turkish campaign to isolate and eliminate the Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq is that the latter will increasingly turn their attention to the folks helping the Turks out. That, of course, would be us. So far it’s just a warning from PEJAK, the PKK’s Iranian Kurdish sister group, but there’s every reason to believe that with Turkey more and more difficult to reach and the Iraqi Kurds not a politically viable target, we’re next on the list. Interestingly enough, PEJAK is the Kurdish separatist group that many have accused […]

As more and more of its unmanned drones wind up shot down over Abkhazia, withdrawing from a bi-lateral air defense treaty with Russia would seem like the sensible move for Georgia. With tensions this high on both sides of the border, though, it’s almost reassuring that the fictional transfer of power tomorrow in Moscow won’t create any instability in the Russian chain of command.

Ever since Judah early last month highlighted this Spencer Ackerman piece on Barack Obama’s foreign policy, I have been meaning to get down some thoughts about Obama and the limits of U.S. power. The almost utopian rhetoric used by Obama’s advisers to describe their central foreign policy goal of “dignity promotion” has been bothering me. Here’s former Obama adviser Samantha Power, for example, as quoted by Ackerman: “He goes back to Roosevelt,” Power says. “Freedom from fear and freedom from want. What if we actually offered that? What if we delivered that in the developing world? That would be a […]

These two posts from 2point6billion.com bring into focus the ways in which globalization hasn’t resolved some of the internal contradictions that hobble its transformational claims. On the one hand, a new report from the Asia Development Bank detailing how the enormous gains in regional GDP have yet to be adequately reinforced through regional integration, and especially regulatory integration of financial markets. And on the other, a look at how the revelations about China’s underground submarine base have reinforced the Indian military establishment’s concerns over China’s rise, particularly as regards securing commercial sea-lanes. Is it possible that globalization has arrived at […]

The U.S. has now publicly removed its objections to Turkey-mediated discussions between Israel and Syria, although Condoleeza Rice argued the talks should be tied to Syria’s involvement in Lebanon. She also expressed her skepticism that Syria was willing to change the behavior that led to American efforts to isolate it in the first place. It’s interesting to note that the EU3+3’s package of incentives for Iran was also put forward over the U.S.’s grumbled objections. Rice publicly expressed her skepticism, saying, “Diplomacy has many forms. . .and it’s not always a matter of sweeter.” That makes two crucial regional dossiers […]

The Turkish government continued its deft handling of the sticky security situation on its Iraq border, following up its military strikes against PKK guerillas with its first diplomatic contacts with the Kurdistan Regional Government. The move comes in the wake of increasing signals from KRG President Massoud Barzani that the Iraqi Kurdish leadership values smooth relations with Ankara more than its ethnic solidarity with the PKK. On the Turkish side, the move signals a shift in its Iraq policy from a focus on divisive ethnically-based questions such as the status of Kirkuk to the development of regional economic and social […]

Last week the Iranians passed on a mysterious plan for resolving the standoff over its uranium enrichment program to a visiting Russian delegation. On Friday, the EU3+3 agreed on an equally mysterious package of incentives aimed at getting Iran to halt its program. That looked to me like the makings of a round of negotiations, but according to an informed European source, the EU3+3 package has been in the works for the past few months, and Russian FM Sergei Lavrov made no mention of the Iranian proposal during the meetings. So far, the only thing that’s been revealed about the […]

World Politics Review Contributing Editor Richard Weitz discussed al-Qaida, Afghanistan and other subjects on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal this morning. Go here to watch the Web video.

I got some pushback via email on this post about Turkey, and the idea of formulating American foreign policy to take advantage of the leverage offered by regional “Middle Powers.” In particular, the question was raised whether having the same policy as Turkey vis à vis Iran is more important than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and more generally whether harmonizing policy with our regional allies should trump our own policy goals. The short answer is no. The longer answer is that the Turkey-Iran example is complicated by the fact that I think we’re trying to impose a flawed […]

Mark Thirwell of the Lowy Interpreter points out that globalization’s successes were already generating the beginnings of a backlash within the developed world, and argues that the advent of the subprime failure makes one even more likely. I’d point out that the Asian financial crisis and the internet bubble had already raised some red flags about the potential dangers of globalization, albeit in a different historical context. But Thirwell’s point is well taken. So many of our futurist scenarios are based on the assumption that barriers to trade will continue to fall, and in the context of a global order. […]

Pakistan’s governing coalition is apparently safe for now, as Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari have hammered out an agreement on reinstating Pakistani judgesremoved by Musharraf, as promised during the election campaign. It doesseem to say a lot about the state of Pakistani democracy, though, thatthe deadlock-breaking meeting took place in a hotel in Dubai, where thePPP is still headquartered. Update: After posting this, I ran across this Arif Rafiq post on the potential obstacles for the agreement. And if you haven’t already, bookmark Rafiq’s site, the Pakistan Policy Blog.

Earlier today I had the chance to talk with Frank Ruddy, the former deputy chairman of the U.N. Peacekeeping Referendum for Western Sahara, in the context of my WPR article about yesterday’s U.N. Security Council vote on the disputed region. Western Sahara is at the center of Africa’s longest running territorial dispute. For more than 33 years the Polisario Front has fought and negotiated for the region’s independence. But the dispute rarely gets covered in the press anymore, and even the U.N. mediator to the talks between the Polisario Front and Morocco seems to believe that independence is a lost […]