WPR Blog Archive

The widening of the Afghanistan War into Pakistan takes on added significance in light of two news items today. The first is a report that Pakistani forces on the Afghan frontier once again opened fire on American helicopters that “strayed” across the border. The second, more damning, is a report via Army Times that Pakistani helicopters repeatedly “strayed” across the frontier last June in order to resupply Taliban forces engaged in a “significant fight” with Afghan Border Police. The report is based on the account of an American officer embedded on a training mission with the Afghan troops, and is […]

Anyone who’s followed the force generation challenges faced by multilateral operations recently knows that there’s a huge shortage these days in strategic and tactical airlift. For the most part, that’s meant a desperate need for helicopters. The kind of desperate need that led the EUFOR Chad mission to accept a Russian offer of six helicopters, plus support crew, because none were forthcoming from EU member states. The NATO mission in Afghanistan faced similar difficulties. But it’s also meant a shortage in strategic and heavy air transport. The EUFOR Chad mission, for instance, was also required to lease planes from a […]

Via Small Wars Journal, two complementary articles on the increasing encroachment of the military instrument on civil development and humanitarian functions. The first, a CSM op-ed by Catholic Relief Services director Ken Hackett, criticizes the recent use of naval gunboats to bring humanitarian aid to Georgia in the aftermath of the recent conflict with Russia. The second, a National Defense University monograph by Patrick Cronin (.pdf), discusses the ways in which the increasingly political nature of irregular warfare has put pressure on the traditional civilian-military balance of power in conflict zones. Hackett’s criticism is based on the need for humanitarian […]

To piggyback on Hampton’s postabout McCain’s Zapatero “gaffe,” I’d bet dollars to donuts that betweenthe interviewer’s strong accent and the fact that she’d beenquestioning him about Latin American leftist leaders, he thought shehad made a reference to the Zapatistas in Chiapas, Mexico. The factthat immediately afterwards he referred to Mexican President FelipeCalderon seems like a pretty strong tell. And as Hampton says, afterthat, there was a lot of cross talk that could explain why he neverheard the references to Spain. That was my first reaction when I sawthe story, and afterwards I noticed that Joshua Keating over at FP Passport […]

The liberal blogosphere is making a lot of hay with John McCain’s recent interview with Radio Caracol Miami in which he appears to dodge a question about meeting with Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Below is the audio, via TPM. The relevant passage starts around 2:58. Contrary to the assertions of most bloggers, it’s perfectly clear to me that McCain’s dodging of the question is a result of his not understanding the interviewer rather than his not knowing who Zapatero is (though the latter remains a possibility). He clearly doesn’t hear the translator say “Spain” in her first […]

When I see Bob Gates struggling to formulate a response to Russia’sinvasion of Georgia, it makes me feel better about not having any easyanswers myself. A lot of people have been trying to come up withexplanations for why Russia is the big loser of the conflict, and whythe invasion was a strategic blunder. To me, Gates’ statementsundermine that argument, and reveal the hollowness of Condoleezza Rice’s more confrontational remarks. What strikes me as obvious is that, despite our overwhelmingsuperiority in terms of the balance of force and power, the rolesbetween the U.S. and Russia have been reversed. From the end […]

More proof that Christopher Hill deserves the Congressional Gold Medal. Seriously, the only job I’d want less than negotiating with the North Koreans would be to do brain surgery on Kim Jong Il. It must be hard enough keeping your hands steady knowing that if you slip up the patient dies.

I suppose that one of the advantages of the anti-missile defense system the Bush administration is so intent on deploying in Eastern Europe is that it will give the Russians something to do with all their weapons grade uranium stockpiles that might otherwise fall into dangerous hands. Think of it as an arms race doubling as counter-proliferation policy.

After years of reflexively blaming Pakistan for any and all domesticterrorist attacks, it looks like India will now have to address agrowing homegrown Islamic terrorist threat. At ten percent of India’spopulation, the Indian Muslim community can’t possibly hope to imposean Islamic state, and even if that were the goal, it was achieved 60years ago with the independence of Pakistan. Still, while I’ve tended to dismiss the idea that Islamic extremismrepresents a strategic or existential threat to the U.S. (or the West),I suppose that if it does, it’s not in the sense that it can actuallyachieve its objectives so much as […]

Pakistan officials say U.S. cross-border strikes are counterproductive. Defense Secretary Gates is coy about whether the Pakistani government authorized the strikes, and says the U.S. will “take whatever action is necessary to protect our troops.” From a counterinsurgency perspective, are such strikes the best way to protect our troops? Retired Lt. Col. John Nagl doesn’t appear to think so. Here’s what he said in an interview we published today: It is impossible to kill or capture your way out of an insurgency. Although cross-border raids can be tactically effective, they come with significant political costs that must be weighed carefully. […]

Good down the road analysis on Russia and South Ossetia from A Fistful of Euro’s Douglas Muir. A propos my point that South Ossetia’s dependence on Russia undermines the initial claims for autonomy that justified the whole intervention, Muir calls that a feature, not a bug. He cites a EurasiaNet articlewhich predicts the “Cyprus model” for the two provinces, withinternational isolation leading to dependence on Russian aid and thedevelopment of the illicit market (drug trafficking, smuggling andmoney laundering), but points out: Russia has no interest in Abkhazia and South Ossetia being prosperousdeveloping liberal economies with access to World Bank technicalassistance […]

Russia seems intent on compounding its major strategic blunder of the Georgia conflict, recognizing S. Ossetia and Abkhazia, by signing security agreements with the two breakaway provinces that among other things establish permanent Russian bases. As I mentioned last week, this is the only way Russian forces could have remained in the provinces post-conflict, as the UN peacekeeping mandate was scheduled to expire next month. But it also very obviously underscores the two provinces’ dependence on Russia, undermining the claims of autonomy and independence that the intervention was meant to defend. Question: What happens to all the Russian passports handed […]

Ever wonder what would happen in an alternate universe where, instead of haunting Fox News studios, John Bolton had been born in India? Well, he’d probably be named Bharat Verma, and he’d probably be the Editor of the Indian Defense Review. And not only would he be glad about the instability threatening Pakistan’s existence, he’d be actively encouraging it and lauding the benefits resulting from the “cessation of Pakistan as a state”: Pakistan’s breakup will be a major setback to the Jihad Factory, asthe core of this is located in Pakistan, and functions with the help ofits army and the […]

Surprise, surprise. The dramatic increase in unmanned aerial drones inthe skies above Iraq, Afghanistan (and now Pakistan) has caused a turfwar between the Army, which prefers placing them under the command ofunit commanders, and the Air Force, which prefers handling them throughthe theatre-wide Joint Force Commander. The former makes for a morerapid and responsive fleet, but the latter minimizes the downtime oftying the UAV’s to the varying conditions of day to day combat needs.Luckily, the two branches seem to be making headway on working out acompromise. Next up? Finding the air space to fly them all in: “Youhave fighters, F-16s, […]

“For those like President Bush who profess certainty as to history’s purpose, using any means necessary to hurry history along to its predetermined destination offers a nearly irresistible temptation. When that conviction is accompanied by a further certainty that on the far side of victory permanent peace awaits, the resort to force becomes almost obligatory. The greater the sense of conviction the easier it becomes to justify any mayhem committed on behalf of big ideas.” –Andrew Bacevich, in a review of “The First Total War: Napoleon’s Europe and the Birth ofWarfare as We Know It,” by David A. Bell, in […]

Yesterday, I linked with arithmetic snark but without comment to TX Hammes’ Small Wars Journal post on the broadening of the Afghanistan War into Pakistan. It’s a very important piece, because it points out the danger of seeing Pakistan exclusively through the lens of our own tactical needs in Afghanistan, while ignoring the fact that for Pakistan, managing the Taliban (whether in Afghanistan or its own tribal areas) is part of the broader strategic calculus of its rivalry with India. Hammes argues that until we develop a strategy for handling this broader regional architecture, our efforts in Afghanistan (which he […]

Buried at the end of this LAT article on Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki and the decline of American influence in Iraq is this passage: At the same time, Iraqi officials complain about the United States’ failure to create a lasting foundation beyond its military presence. Iran has created more than $2 billion in trade with its neighbor, including fuel and electricity exports. “The Iranians will stay in this place forever till the Judgment Day and the Americans will withdraw,” said Sheik Jalaluddin Saghir, a senior Shiite politician. “The Americans built their status on their military and their political viewpoints. They […]