WPR Blog Archive

Rob over at Arabic Media Shack makes two good points, one strategic and one political, regarding my earlier post on France and Afghanistan, which I neglected to make in focusing on the financial and material constraints facing our European allies with regards to troop increases: Looking at this from the French perspective, it’s hard for me to see whyit’s in French interests to send troops to Afghanistan. If the U.S. shipis sinkingin Afghanistan, as many are saying, why should France jumpon board, given their long-term interest in maintaining a globalforeign policy independent of the United States? Furthermore,US-Europe relations during Bush […]

From the gang at Foreign Policy Watch (congrats on the well-deserved Weblog finalist nomination, guys), I learn that I am old. Ah, well, it could be worse. Warren Zevon’s dead. Apparently, forty’s the new thirty, but I’m just fine with forty being forty. As I observed to a charming twenty-something not long ago who tried to reassure me by protesting that I wasn’t that old, “You say that as if young is a compliment.” All of which is to say, if you want recent music by living artists, you’d do well to send recommendations (and preferably open source links). Even […]

Muammar Qaddafi’s proposal for a one-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will of course be dismissed as a demographic death sentence for the idea of a Jewish state. But the vision he fashions in his NY Times op-ed of the mutual benefits the two peoples can offer each other is a noble one. I’ve defended it often, despite charges of being naive, because I’d rather be naive in defense of a noble vision than realistic in defense of a bankrupt one. Beyond that, the piece is full of things I never expected to hear coming from the leader of an […]

This IHT article on how the Gaza War has kept Arab countries from progressing on other important issues in the region — including illiteracy, education, unemployment, and food and water supplies — reminded me that I’ve been meaning to write up a report from the Strategic Foresight Group titled, Cost of Conflict in the Middle East. The report (.pdf summary here) essentially does a detailed economic analysis of the opportunity costs of Middle East conflict, and I thought I’d pass on some of the eye-opening highlights from the summary they sent me: – The countries in the Middle East that […]

This IHT article on how the Gaza War has kept Arab countries from progressing on other important issues in the region — including illiteracy, education, unemployment, and food and water supplies — reminded me that I’ve been meaning to write up a report from the Strategic Foresight Group titled, Cost of Conflict in the Middle East. The report (.pdf summary here) essentially does a detailed economic analysis of the opportunity costs of Middle East conflict, and I thought I’d pass on some of the eye-opening highlights from the summary they sent me: – The countries in the Middle East that […]

Apparently whoever blogs for the Economist found this Dan Drezner post a bit heavy on the French-bashing, too. (Drezner’s response here.) To be fair to Drezner, French Defense Minister Hervé Morin’s flat-out rejection of any troop increases in Afghanistan on the day after President Obama was sworn in was uncharacteristically clumsy. Morin’s a very savvy and articulate politician whose tenure as Defense Minister won me over despite the fact that he stabbed François Bayrou in the back to get it, and I’m sure that he’s already gotten an earful from Nicolas Sarkozy. Drezner also pointed out some of the public […]

Very smart post from Andru Exawama on the political aftermath on the ground in Gaza. Short version: Hamas needs to be the one that rebuilds Gaza to win the war. That’s behind the skirmishes with Fatah that have already broken out, as well as Israel’s insistence that aid be delivered through the U.N. and NGOs, although Exum doesn’t mention it. And as Josh Marshall points out, polling in Israel in advance of the February elections has now shifted further to the right, with Benjamin Netanyahu still favored, but far right Yisrael Beiteinu now polling an unprecedented 16 seats. This could […]

I agree with Greg Scoblete’s comments at RCW Blog regarding Col. H.R. McMaster’s World Affairs article on the lessons of Vietnam and Iraq. McMAsters is known as the “brain behind Petraeus” (which is kind of like saying the “muscle behind Tyson” circa 1985), and he argues that in both wars, Pentagon planners intoxicated by technological advances misjudged the nature of the war they were entering. Here’s Scoblete: If we collectively decide that the problem with the Iraq war was thatDonald Rumsfeld and company were insufficiently mindful of populationsecurity and overly optimistic about high-tech warfare, then we haven’tactually learned anything. . […]

Interesting article in Le Figaro about the price France is paying for Nicolas Sarkozy’s meeting with the Dalai Lama in Poland last December. Sarkozy campaigned on a pretty strong human rights plank — with particularly robust rhetoric reserved for Russia — and chose Bernard Kouchner, a militant advocate of liberal interventionism, as his foreign minister. Since taking office, though, his approach to Russia has been pragmatic and surprisingly cordial. He also received Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi at Elysée Palace, a move condemned by even his own Undersecretary of Human Rights, Rama Yade. And as for Bernard Kouchner, although he’s been […]

Reading this Der Spiegel piece about Kosovo’s new army, I found myself wondering which of today’s ethno-nationalist militias will become the world’s next national army. The Peshmerga of Iraqi Kurdistan would have to be pretty solid contenders, if it weren’t for the various factions in Somalia that already have a running head start. South Ossetia and Abkhazia already have what they claim to be national armed forces, so they’re out. Am I forgetting anyone?

I’d like to plug a friend’s book which is tangentially related to foreign policy. It’s a primer on what environmentalists need to know about economics with the very clever title, What Environmentalists Need to Know about Economics. The author, Jason Scorse, is a professor of environmental economics at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, and hopefully a future WPR contibutor. I’ve only gone through the first chapter so far, but it’s a well-written introduction to the economic fundamentals behind environmental policy, from a reasoned and thoughtful perspective. That should be pretty relevant now that the American government is back on […]

Not long ago, in a WPR Briefing, Phil Cain discussed the dangerous precedent set by Slovenia’s veto of Croatia’s EU accession negotiations over an unresolved border dispute between the two nations. The MEP responsible for Croatia’s accession dossier, Austrian Socialist MEP Hannes Swoboda, has just announced that if the dispute isn’t settled within the next few weeks, it won’t be possible to open the remaining accession chapters needed to conclude negotiations in 2009, as planned. Possibility of breaking the deadline in that timespan, according to Swoboda? “Seventy to 80 percent not possible.” That’s Eurospeak for “a longshot.”

I’m not going to get too involved in unpacking President Obama’s inaugural speech. I was somewhat surprised by its soberness, but these are, after all, sobering times. But I do want to mention three things that struck me in terms of his treatment of America’s place in the world. First, the scriptural reference to putting away childish things, and the idea that America must mature as a nation. Second, the line about “the world is changing, and we must change with it” — almost unheard of in American politics, even if it was followed by a recommitment to global leadership. […]

This WaPo piece (via Laura Rozen) is good news. Amid all the commentary saying how the Gaza War was a major setback for President Obama’s Middle East agenda, I remained convinced that it should not keep him from investing fully into the cleanup immediately upon taking office. It could very well be true that the realistic potential for success has been limited, but a lot of that will depend on the timing of where and when diplomatic resources are brought to bear. And George Mitchell brings a lot of cred to the job.

Love him or hate him, Syrian President Bashar Assad sure holds up his end in this tough, adversarial Der Spiegel interview: SPIEGEL: No Western politician wants to sit at the same table with Hamas. Assad: That’s not true at all. Many European officials have sought a dialogue with Hamas, especially recently. SPIEGEL: With your mediation? Assad: The Europeans have learned from experience. That’s why they are nowtalking to the Hamas leadership here in Damascus — not publicly, ofcourse. I don’t want to mention any names. But I do think it’s tellingthat they include people who are especially critical of Hamas […]

I’m on record as being a big fan of Turkey’s diplomacy of late, which makes the posture of Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan during the Gaza War a bit of a puzzle. Turkey is a democracy, so the fact that Turkish public opinion was overwhelmingly outraged by the Israeli attacks probably played a part. Erdogan might also just have been unable to separate his personal reactions to the violence from his governmental function. And there’s always the possibility that there was a double communication going on, with his public declarations mitigated by direct exchanges with Israeli leaders. But I can’t help […]

World Politics Review’s managing editor, Judah Grunstein, appeared on France 24’s panel discussion, The Debate, yesterday evening, to discuss expectations and realistic possibilities for President Barack Obama’s domestic policies, as well as the impact of his election on race relations in America. Part one of the program can be found here. Part two can be found here.