WPR Blog Archive

Say what you will about French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, but the guy’s got two things going for him: Mr Kouchner then requested that the UN be given access to the civilians trapped with the Tigers. When the Defence Secretary responded that it was not safe for anyone to enter the area, Mr Kouchner volunteered to go himself. “A smiling Rajapaksa told the French Foreign Minister that the LTTE was so desperate that he, too, would be taken hostage,” the report said. “I don’t mind that risk,” said Mr Kouchner, who co-founded the medical aid agency, Médecins sans Frontières (Doctors […]

The World Bank’s 2008 Little Data Book on Africa (.pdf) might also have been called the Little Book of Horrors. It describes a world of human beings living at the extremes of poverty and at the edge of a precarious existence, particularly children under five years old. I ran some of the data from sub-Saharan countries where there are more than 200 deaths per thousand for under-5-year-olds to try to get some correlations between: – The amounts of aid flowing into a country as a percentage of GDP.– The per capita GDP.– And the number of deaths per thousand for […]

I’m not quite sure what to make of this, because it’s one of the more curious patterns I’ve spotted recently in my generally random, undirected news scanning. But the UAE is now the world’s third-largest arms purchaser, behind China and India. That’s a jump from 15th place between 1999-2003. The Al Jazeera article explains it in the context of the rising threat fom Iran. But from what I’d understood, the UAE was more of a hedger on Iran than other Sunni Arab states. In her WPR Briefing on the U.S.-UAE civilian nuclear deal last March, Elizabeth Zolotukhina pointed out that […]

The swine-flu pandemic seems like the kind of story that essentially reinforces everyone’s pre-existing point of view. Alarmists get very alarmed. Non-alarmists get very non-alarmed. I’m no exeception. Oddly enough, although I tend towards apocalyptic alarmism in all sorts of scenarios involving the breakdown of social order, I’m less responsive to alarmism over global pandemics. My hunch is that this particular one will get worse before it gets better, that it’s impossible to know how much worse, and that following every single new outbreak across the planet is more of a job for the WHO than for me. So I’ll […]

Gotta say this about the Chinese: They learn from past mistakes quickly. In 2003, they were largely opaque about SARS and blocked WHO aid to Taiwan. In 2008, they were already much more transparent about the Sichuan earthquake. Today, in the face of the swine flu scare, they’re signaling openness to Taiwanese participation in an upcoming WHO governing assembly. That reflects improvements in cross-straits relations over the past year. But it also demonstrates a steep learning curve in terms of public diplomacy.

I read this NY Times article on cyber warfare with interest, if not alarm. By nature, I prefer the “wondering monk” approach to security — i.e., accumulate nothing that anyone else would value and avoid attachments to physical locations — to the fortress mentality. As a locksmith once told me, locks serve mainly to reassure those who install them, and to deter bumbling amateurs. Professionals get in to where they want to go. So rest assured, our systems will be hacked, and even if they aren’t, any secrets that appear on our computer screens are vulnerable to side-channel leaks. On […]

First thing I thought after catching John Woo’s new mega-period epic, Red Cliff, this weekend was, I wonder why I haven’t read any clever blog reviews discussing the film’s obvious subtext on America’s recent military adventurism yet. A few google searches later and I learned that the film not only hasn’t yet been released Stateside, it’s got no U.S. distributor. That, folks, is crazy. Either someone in Hollywood is really stupid, or someone in China is really greedy. (With regard to this movie, I mean.) To put it very simply, this is a great martial arts war flick, with a […]

I didn’t plan to write three China posts today, in case you’re wondering. And I also didn’t plan the title tie-ins. Go figure. Anyway, I thought I’d flag two Times of India items I came across yesterday. First, Vietnam will be purchasing six Russian subs. Second, India has reportedly decided to exclude China from this year’s Indian Ocean Naval Symposium. In case you’re wondering what Vietnam needs six subs for, or why India might be feeling a bit edgy, go read Richard Weitz’ WPR column on China’s naval buildup. In addition to the prestige factor that comes of parading the […]

I’m not going to have a whole lot to say about President Barack Obama’s first hundred days in office, since we invited an impressive group of foreign policy luminaries to do that for us in next Tuesday’s feature issue. But I will say this: Getting people with a hardened negative opinion about the U.S. to withhold judgment and instead pay attention to the message coming out of Washington is, in itself, a tangible result: – U.S., Cuban diplomats meet? Check.– Evo Morales impressed? Check.– Syria less mistrustful? Check.– Hamas keeping its ear to the ground? Check. Now, if you look […]

As I mentioned in the previous post, China’s hole card is its cash reserves. And as this NY Times article on China’s dealmaking in South America makes clear, in a time of global economic distress, that’s still a pretty sweet hole card: In recent weeks, China has been negotiating deals to double adevelopment fund in Venezuela to $12 billion, lend Ecuador at least $1billion to build a hydroelectricplant, provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion inChinese currency and lend Brazil’s national oil company $10 billion.The deals largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oilfor years to […]

Looking for a respite from the “China’s Rise” trope? You could start with this post by Chris Devonshire-Ellis at 2point6billion.com comparing China’s statism to India’s chaotic democracy: Elsewhere, China’s issues appear to stem from the difficulties thecountry now faces in managing itself as a one-party state. Make nomistake, this is not an easy thing to do . . . [T]o remain benign [and]committed to development, economic progress and integration with theglobal community while utilizing such a system has never been attemptedbefore. People forget; while China may appear to have been stable overthe past three decades, the Chinese social experiment still […]

For a really good analysis of the challenges facing South Africa in the nowinaugurated “Jacob Zuma era,” take a look at this piece by South African author/journalist William Gumede. Unlike his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, who was something of a stick in the mud,Zuma promises to be a boon for political satirists and cartoonists. Thecontroversial South African cartoonist, Zapiro,has already gotten a head start with his infamous caricature of Zuma thatincludes a shower head embedded in Zuma’s skull, a reference to Zuma’sremark that he never worries about getting AIDS because he showers after having sex. For another example of South African […]

What did the BBC do for Rwanda’s information minister, Louise Mushikiwabo, to suspend their programs and call them “a real poison with regards to the reconciliation of the Rwandan people” yesterday? The Beeb broadcast an interview with former Prime Minister Faustin Twagiramungu, now living in Belgium, who said that as a Hutu, he could never apologize for the 1994 Genocide. (A Rwandan government spokesperson was invited to participate in the program, but declined.) This is not the first time that Mushikiwabo has taken issue with the BBC. Last August, according to a report by the Committee to Protect Journalists, Mushikiwabo […]

This hasn’t been a particularly good week for anyone concerned by the creeping militarization of foreign policy in general, and development aid in particular. When President Barack Obama announced his Afghanistan strategy last month, a lot was made about the “diplomatic surge” element — roughly a thousand civilian posts to boost development work in the country. I remember thinking at the time that an increase of 1,000 civilians didn’t stack up so well with the increase of 21,000 troops that was announced at roughly the same time. But at least it was a start. Only trouble is, the NY Times […]

The U.S.-Iraq SOFA agreement is being doubly tested. The NY Times reports that U.S. and Iraqi military commanders will be discussing whether or not to exempt Mosul from the agreement’s June 30 deadline to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Iraqi cities. At the same time, the Times of India reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has officially protested an allegedly unauthorized raid by U.S. troops, one that Le Monde claims left an Iraqi woman and police officer dead. Maliki is calling for the troops responsible to be delivered to the Iraqi courts. The developments cap a period of heightened […]

Sadly, this NYT article about the rise in violence against the Roma (i.e. gypsys) in Eastern and Central Europe doesn’t surprise me. Of course, the Roma, perhaps even more than Jews, are the epitome of a wandering people, and the violence they’ve both encountered over the years has often represented what happens when ethnic prejudice overlaps with resentment over immigration. What’s more, the far right, which has maintained a surprisingly resilient presence on the European political landscape even during the past fifteen years of relative prosperity, is likely to make inroads in light of the current economic hardship. That still […]

I originally thought of this week’s selection — posted a day late — in relation to the elections going on in South Africa. But then Hampton’s post from yesterday made me think of it from a different angle. Ina lot of ways I agree with Hampton that any attempt to punish theuse of torture would risk being both compromised by politics andhampered by the complexities of parsing who should be held responsiblefor what. That’s what I was referring to when I saidthere would be weaknesses to both criminal prosecutions and a truthcommission. In other words, I acknowledge the possibility that […]