WPR Blog Archive

South Korea experienced its second space launch failure earlier this month when a rocket exploded shortly after lifting off. In an e-mail interview, Center for a New American Security Fellow Abe Denmark discusses developments and setbacks in South Korea’s space program. WPR: What is the current state of South Korea’s space program? Abe Denmark: To date, the ROK’s satellite development program has been rather successful. Its National Space Program, most recently updated in 2005, calls for an ambitious program including the development of 13 satellites by 2010 and the ability to lift a 1.5 ton satellite into low-earth orbit (LEO) […]

Human rights advocates and Russian opposition figures are criticizing two legislative proposals before the Russian legislature that impose restrictions on the rights to free speech and political expression reminiscent of Soviet-era repression. A recent bill, passed by the Duma on June 11, will expand the powers of the Federal Security Service (FSB) to anticipate extremist activities and take pre-emptive measures against individuals and groups the agency suspects of such activities. The FSB was created in 1995 as Russia’s successor intelligence agency to the KGB. The language of the bill — which includes the authority to “eliminate causes and conditions that […]

I had the pleasure of participating on France 24’s discussion panel, The World This Week, on Friday to recap the stories of the week: the G-20 summit, the McChrystal firing, the elections in Guinea, and the politicization of soccer. The other guests were Matthew Saltmarsh of the IHT, Célestine Bohlen, and Michael Kirtley. Part one can be found here. Part two can be found here. This was one of the rare times I’ve participated on this program where, upon leaving the set, I wasn’t immediately struck by everything I should have said, or how I might have expressed what I […]

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently proposed a visa-free trade zone with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. In an e-mail interview, Chatham House Associate Fellow Fadi Hakura explains Turkey’s trade relations with its Arab neighbors. WPR: What is Turkey’s current state of trade with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan? Fadi Hakura: Turkey engages in $3 billion of annual trade with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan collectively, representing 10 percent of Turkey’s trade volume with the Arab world, and is slightly above its $2.5 billion of annual bilateral trade with Israel. Overall, less than one-quarter of Turkish exports are destined to Arab markets, whereas […]

I’ve consciously avoided commenting on the broader subject of Afghanistan strategy over the past six months for three reasons. First, I agreed with the Obama administration’s December 2009 strategy review. Second, even if I didn’t, it seems counterproductive to relitigate the decision at the appearance of every news item that suggests things might not be going as planned. Third, any strategy takes time to assess, and will often defy momentary appearances. So yes, Marjah was a disappointment, the Kandahar “offensive” has anti-climaxed before it even began, and it seems that the insurgency has made inroads into Afghanistan’s northern, non-Pashtun provinces. […]

Apparently I wasn’t the only person who, in watching the North Korean soccer team’s World Cup matches, flinched every time one of their players screwed up, wondering what awaited them when they returned home. It turns out I should have been more concerned with the fate of the French national team, whose World Cup implosion has triggered the kind of absolute unity of opinion one rarely encounters here. But the popular outrage has become a political pile-on, with Thierry Henry scheduled to consult with President Nicolas Sarkozy at Elysée Palace today, and an Estates General of the country’s soccer federation […]

On any number of levels, whether interpersonal or interagency, the necessary conclusion to be drawn from the McChrystal episode is that national security in an age of full-spectrum stabilization operations is “bigger than both of us.” Clearly, Gen. Stanley McChrystal failed to internalize the primacy of civil-military unity of effort, no matter how often or how well he tried to sell the merits of population-centric counterinsurgency to his own troops and outside observers. Just as clearly, Gen. David Petraeus wrote the book on that unity of effort. Also just as clearly, McChrystal was forced to work with, and Petraeus has […]

Turkey’s civil nuclear program has recently gained momentum with a signed deal with Russia to build the country’s first nuclear power plant and talks of a possible $20 billion contract with South Korea for the construction of up to four nuclear energy reactors. In an e-mail interview, Henri Barkey, professor at Lehigh University and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses Turkey’s nuclear ambitions. WPR: What is driving Turkey’s renewed interest in nuclear energy? Henri Barkey: There are three reasons. First, the Iran debate has highlighted how far behind Turkey is on nuclear energy, as there are […]

I’m not going to spend too much time piling on to the McChrystal story, which one way or another will be resolved in the next few days. I do want to address one recurring theme of the commentary, though, which is this idea that Gen. Stanley McChrystal, despite having royally blundered regarding the Rolling Stone profile, really “gets” COIN and is the best man for the job in Afghanistan. The problem is that when you go through the Army’s vaunted counterinsurgency field manual (.pdf), McChrystal, as revealed in the profile, is guilty of a failure in leadership on the most […]

Last week, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan held their first conversation on a newly installed prime-ministerial hotline intended to diffuse tensions between the two countries. In an e-mail interview, Haraldur Þór Egilsson, Professor at the University of Akureyri and author of “The Origins, Use and Development of Hot Line Diplomacy” (.pdf), explains the history and current use of diplomatic hotlines. WPR: When were diplomatic hotlines first introduced, and how has their use expanded and evolved? Haraldur Þór Egilsson: The need for reliable and swift communications between governments has always been essential. Such a need was […]

A Congressional report, released Monday, detailing how taxpayer money is going into the pockets of Afghan warlords in return for protecting NATO truck convoys has drawn attention to an immense logistical problem in Afghanistan that gets only intermittent attention: resupplying NATO forces in the conflict. Hopefully the House will broaden its investigation to take in the broader issue of the cost and security of the resupply lines themselves. The high cost of providing American and other allied troops with everything from ammunition to condoms is a key reason why keeping a soldier on the ground there costs almost double what […]

I explained in detail last week why I think the “Turkey turning East” meme is overblown in a dipomatic context. On the other hand, the fact that Turkish trade is turning East strikes me as a far more significant development, for Turkey, but also, if not more so, for the EU. In the absence of a credible hard power global role, the EU’s real influence comes in the form of its market’s ability to attract partners and thereby spread norms. With European growth projections looking bleak for the next few years, this trend is likely to become generalized, meaning that […]

Okay, maybe hypocrisy might be a better word than irony. I mentioned in the immediate aftermath of the Gaza flotilla assault that Turkey’s credibility on Israel’s Gaza policy is undermined by its own past and present military campaign against the Kurdish PKK terrorist/militant group camped out in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains. According to this article from Le Figaro, civilian deaths resulting from that campaign number in the several thousands, although the article (which focuses on Iran’s recent military strikes against a related Kurdish outfit) does not specify a timeframe. Now, in response to the PKK’s yearly spring/summer spike in bombings […]

The first thing that occurred to me about Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s ill-advised Rolling Stone profile is that it pretty much guarantees that the July 2011 drawdown schedule will stick. For that reason alone, it might make sense for the Obama administration to fire McChrystal, not immediately, but on the installment plan, by letting him run out the clock until then. The second thing that occurred to me — and this gives you an idea of how badly the leaked quotes reflect on the state of civil-military relations between McChrystal’s command and his civilian superiors — is the parallel between the […]

South Korea’s burgeoning civil nuclear industry is gaining increasing international attention, due to a recent $20 billion construction deal with the UAE (which included an additional $20 billion operation and service contract), and potential multi-billion deals with both Turkey and India. In an e-mail interview, Mark Hibbs, senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy program, discusses South Korea’s rise to prominence in the global civil nuclear energy industry. WPR: What is South Korea’s current status in the global civil nuclear industry? Mark Hibbs: South Korea has steadily built up its nuclear power sector over the last […]

Around the world, governments have largely made progress in the battle against human trafficking over the last year, according to the U.S. State Department’s latest “Trafficking in Persons Report,” which for the first time included an analysis of American efforts. Human trafficking remains a massive worldwide problem, and efforts to address the scourge will never fully succeed until the root causes behind the trade are removed. According to the report, more than 12 million men, women and children around the world have been trapped by traffickers into forced labor, debt bondage or prostitution. U.S. efforts placed it among countries doing […]

Since Monday morning, I’d been wanting to dash off a post to the effect that, 1) the extent of Turkey and Brazil’s diplomatic triumph in getting Iran to sign a basically meaningless text had been greatly exagerrated; and, 2) Turkey is not turning from West to East, but rather is affirming its position as a node in the global power structure. But on Monday, Walter Russel Mead did the heavy lifting on the first point. I figured that still left me the second one, but Yigal Schleifer took care of that yesterday. Both are worth reading in full, as is […]