As the relationship between the United States and China continues to deteriorate, and with the looming return of former President Donald Trump to the White House promising the possibility of further escalation, countries in Southeast Asia are increasingly worried about having to choose between the two giants. But with the exception of the Philippines, none of the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, want to explicitly align with the United States. Indeed, nearly all of them are historically known for hedging between great powers.
In exploring their options to avoid being completely caught up in U.S.-China tensions, many Southeast Asian states are eagerly building robust ties with Asia’s middle powers—Japan, Australia, South Korea and, to some extent, India—as well as outside powers like Russia and the European Union.
If these smaller Southeast Asian states are expanding their economic and security partnerships, it is not just to resist pressure from the U.S. to join an anti-China coalition, pressure that is likely to increase under a second Trump administration. It is also to create checks and balances against China under President Xi Jinping. Xi’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric and actions in disputed regional waters like the South China Sea have already raised concerns in the region. Now there are fears that he may use further coercive activities as the Chinese economy falters.