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Most coverage of the outcome of Iraq’s March 7 elections has portrayed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s re-election as seriously in doubt, with former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite, contending for the position. However, not only is another term for Maliki likely, his only real obstacle is securing Kurdish support. Allawi, on the other hand, does not represent a realistic threat. More generally, the election will result in a parliament that is more polarized between majority Shiite Islamists and opposition Sunni Arab nationalists, with secular Shiite and tribal parties almost entirely wiped out. Although definitive tallies have not yet […]

The United States is entering negotiations this week to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (.pdf), a relatively unknown trade agreement that includes Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore. The pact is perhaps humble in its origins, with the population of its largest member — Chile — less than 16 million at the time of its inception in 2005, and the group’s share of global GDP minute. But the TPP has quietly gained momentum over recent years and may come to serve as a free trade zone that incorporates large parts of both sides of the Pacific. In addition to the United […]

A recent report issued by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights an enduring but growing mismatch between how America conducts its foreign policy and how the world beyond the West is spiritually evolving. Describing what the newspapers immediately dubbed a “God gap,” the report (.pdf) decries Washington’s “uncompromising Western secularism” as a self-imposed obstacle to broadband engagement of religious groups and parties in emerging economies and failed states. This, despite the fact that many of these religious actors are playing leading roles in facilitating their societies’ embrace — or driving their rejection — of globalization’s numerous opportunities and challenges. […]

BANGKOK — It was billed by local media as the last stand of former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s red-shirted rural supporters against a bureaucratic elite that they claim rules Thailand as an “Orwellian state.” But despite heightened fears of a “final battle,” Sunday’s mass protest has so far only set the stage for more political instability in the coming days and weeks. The rally in Bangkok was called to protest a court seizure of the ousted premier’s assets, a decision that dealt a blow to the grassroots movement Thaksin funds from exile. Fearing the worst, the Thai government made sweeping preparations […]

SANTIAGO, Chile — As conservative billionaire Sebastian Piñera was sworn in as Chile’s 38th president on March 11, hanging lamps and flower displays in the Chilean Congress swayed due to aftershocks from the earthquake that had fractured a large swath of the country less than two weeks earlier. The tremors were a reminder that Piñera’s success as president, and perhaps the future of his party, will depend on his ability to lead an efficient recovery from the country’s worst natural disaster in 50 years. The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that shook Chile before dawn on Feb. 27 toppled buildings and bridges and […]

The outcome of the U.K.’s upcoming general election is no longer a foregone conclusion, with the opposition Conservative Party’s steady lead in opinion polls recently narrowing. An election date of May 6 has been floated, leaving plenty of time for the usual twists and turns of election campaigning. All the same, given Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s political difficulties and popular fatigue with the Labour Party’s long grip on power, a Conservative win is certainly plausible. So what would be the implications of a Conservative victory on foreign and development policy? Answering this question is tricky, not least because a consistent […]

One of the strengths of the Naval War College is that it constantly reviews and assesses its curriculum. In support of that effort, I have been reacquainting myself with E. H. Carr’s seminal work “The Twenty Years’ Crisis,” which got me to thinking: Will we look back on the period of time between 1991 and 2011 as another two-decade interregnum marked by crisis and opportunity? This isn’t an entirely original thought. James Goldgeier and Derek Chollet opened this discussion two years ago when they published, “America Between the Wars: From 11/9 to 9/11.” But I wanted to focus on the […]

In announcing on March 8 that Venezuela is interested in restoring diplomatic ties with Colombia, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro noted that any improvement will not take place while current Colombian President Álvaro Uribe remains in office. The jab was just one of many that Bogotá and Caracas have traded over the past eight tumultuous years, but the conciliatory rhetoric suggests that the two countries may be turning a corner in bilateral relations. A lot remains to be accomplished. Ties between the two neighbors, always tense, took a turn for the worse after a March 2008 attack by Colombian forces […]

As the United States steps up its campaign to impose economic sanctions on Iran, fears are growing in Washington and in the Middle East that Iran will try to trigger a new war in the region in order to shift attention from its nuclear activities, throw the U.S. and its allies off balance, and put Israel on the defensive. Few people, if any, envision Iran launching a direct attack. Rather, the concern is that Tehran will manage to stir up trouble in Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, or even Syria, in order to spark a new confrontation between Israel […]

BAGRAM, Afghanistan — Standing on a mountaintop, 1st Lt. Maximilian Soto swept his arm from side to side, indicating a 400-square-mile expanse of fields, rivers and streams surrounding the village of Estalef in Parwan province, just north of Kabul. “All this,” he said, “is mine.” With a force of just 26 men from the Special Troops Battalion of the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, Soto provides security for a chunk of Afghanistan the size of a typical American county. “It’s quite difficult,” he told World Politics Review. In December, U.S. President Barack Obama announced he would be sending 30,000 new […]

As president of the G-20 this year, South Korea seemingly has an appetite for tackling the global economy’s biggest problems. And few challenges loom larger than the significant global imbalances that helped pave the way for the recent international financial crisis. The Koreans have been busy promoting an apparently novel solution to this very problem: an international currency swap regime. But how would such an arrangement work, and could it actually help correct current imbalances? As important, is there any chance this idea will get off the ground? The global economy of today is — and has been for some […]

The run up to this weekend’s Iraqi election — the second general election held since the fall of Saddam’s regime — was marked by speculation, anticipation and no shortage of controversy. Since the last such election in 2005, the Iraqi people have witnessed continual changes to their country and political map, and the trajectory of Iraq as determined by this latest election could change accordingly. There is little doubt that, although the elections saw some violence, they were a marked improvement from 2005 and a testament that democracy is taking root in Iraq. There is much at stake in the […]

It could take over a month before the Iraqi Supreme Court confirms the results of Sunday’s legislative elections, but the process itself has already shown significant successes in several dimensions. Even so, important questions regarding Iraq’s future, and America’s role in it, remain unresolved. Most importantly, this latest election confirms Iraq’s status as a functioning democracy in which multiple candidates and political parties compete for office in essentially free and fair elections, whose outcome could not be predicted in advance. While such an achievement would not be remarkable in many parts of the world, it is a rarity in the […]

Hubert Védrine was a diplomatic adviser and chief of staff to French President François Mitterand, and went on to serve as France’s foreign minister in the government of Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (1997-2002). He is the author of numerous books and articles on foreign policy and globalization, including “History Strikes Back: How Nations, States and Conflicts are Shaping the 21st Century.” In a wide-ranging interview, the edited text of which follows, he offered his analysis of the issues and challenges facing the European Union, both at home and abroad, as it enters the post-Lisbon era. World Politics Review: Let’s start […]

NAIROBI, Kenya — It’s easy to confuse the interior of Nairobi’s Habesha restaurant with a lost corner of Ethiopia. The smell of frankincense and thick, dark coffee waft through the air as the latest tunes by Teddy Afro vie to be heard over the Amharic-language patter of denizens from Addis Ababa, Lalibela, Mekele and Gonder. There’s a good reason for the resemblance: Many of Habesha’s clients are in exile for speaking out against the government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. And if the 2005 elections as well as this year’s campaign season are any indication, it might be even […]

President Barack Obama does not seem to care very much about Europe. A series of notable slights by the White House have led to a sense of neglect on the continent. The president skipped the commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Adding insult to injury, while Europe was busy celebrating its remarkable unification in the wake of communism’s collapse, the White House was talking up the notion of America as a “Pacific power” and of the rise of a new G-2 grouping between the U.S. and China. Last month, the White House leaked word […]

That which does not kill us makes us stronger. Perhaps Nietzsche’s famous words would be more apt as the European Union’s motto, instead of “Unity in Diversity,” for in the now half-century of European integration, progress has often been made through crisis. Indeed, political Europe was actually born out of a “crisis”: World War II. If the union’s current difficulties are a measure of its future progress, then progress will be great, as the current financial and economic crisis is mercilessly revealing the EU’s fundamental weaknesses: its lack of reactivity, its lack of solidarity, its lack of vision. In short, […]