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When Lebanon’s new prime minister announced he had finally formed a new cabinet after five months of negotiations, the Lebanese people seemed startled by the abruptness of the news. The announcement by Prime Minister Najib Mikati heralded a new era for Lebanon: For the first time, the militant Shiite group Hezbollah — designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and a number of Western nations — will hold the majority of ministries in the Lebanese cabinet. The exact timing of the announcement points to the powerful forces at play in Lebanon, suggesting that with the new government in place, […]

Since taking office in June 2010, Philippine President Benigno Aquino has pushed through reforms aimed at improving the professionalism of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). The drive, however, remains restricted to certain aspects of civil-military relations, and as such is bound to have only limited impact. In general, key prerequisites of democratic oversight of the security sector include civilian control over the political sphere of military issues, such as internal security policy, budgets, reform processes and the upholding of human rights. The military, on the other hand, is expected to enjoy a degree of autonomy in the professional […]

Chinese factories are struggling as the export growth-rate slows down. Tough domestic conditions are also hitting their profits. They are facing high borrowing costs and high inflation. And this summer power is in short supply, with blackouts frequently interrupting their operations.

Last Sunday’s polls in Turkey gave incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan a widely expected victory. His Justice and Development Party (AKP) obtained 50 percent of the vote, winning Erdogan an unprecedented third mandate and increasing the party’s share of votes by more than 3 percent over its already triumphal victory in 2007. A closer look shows that all the major parties actually managed to increase the number of votes they received. That suggests that many Turkish electors ultimately opted for a “strategic vote,” abandoning smaller political groups and their hopeless struggle to overcome the 10-percent threshold to be seated […]

The Obama administration appears to be in the throes of yet another debate about the long-term U.S. commitment to Afghanistan. Inside the administration, officials are weighing not only the material costs of remaining in Afghanistan, but also the political and bureaucratic implications of continuing the war. Undoubtedly, some are asking the question, “What would a withdrawal from Afghanistan say about the United States?” Some might answer that a withdrawal would embolden America’s enemies and indicate that the United States is both weak and unwilling to stand behind its friends. The late, esteemed George Kennan suggested another interpretation of such a […]

Vietnam’s live-fire naval exercises this week may signal a new stage of regional tension over disputed areas of the potentially oil- and gas-rich South China Sea. At a minimum, says Abraham Denmark, a senior adviser at the Center for Naval Analysis in Washington and a World Politics Review contributor, the exercises were designed to send a message to China, which in recent months has become more assertive in its claims of sovereignty over the sea. “It’s fairly clear that Vietnam is signaling its resolve to China that they’re not going to back down on disputed claims in the South China […]

Kenya and Ethiopia recently agreed to boost security along their shared border following deadly cross-border raids in May. In an email interview, Edmond J. Keller, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles,* discussed Kenya-Ethiopia border security. WPR: What are the main areas of concern with regard to the Ethiopia-Kenya border? Edmond J. Keller: The border between Ethiopia and Kenya is more than 500 miles long and rests in very remote and underdeveloped parts of both countries. On the Kenya side, elements of the Turkana cattle herders are the population; on the Ethiopia side, […]

Despite Turkey’s stalled European Union accession bid and a seeming inability to influence the turmoil gripping the Middle East, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party sailed to its third consecutive parliamentary election victory last weekend by touting its success in raising the country’s profile on the world stage. According to Yigal Schleifer, an independent journalist and World Politics Review contributor, the party — known by its Turkish acronym, AKP — effectively portrayed itself “as the main driver of democratization in Turkey.” “The economy has been growing steadily, and Turkey’s profile on the world stage and in the region […]

The meeting last week between China’s ambassador to Qatar and the head of Libya’s opposition movement signaled a proactive new phase in China’s engagement with Libya’s future. The move is a further step away from China’s traditional insistence on not interfering in the internal affairs of other nations and privileging intergovernmental relations. Yet there are reminders of a not-too-distant past when Maoist China had extensive contacts with rebels around the globe. Now, China is testing out new responses and possibilities for conflict mediation while also looking to secure its own interests, whatever the outcome in Libya. China showed considerable flexibility […]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Iraq in May to discuss investments in Iraqi energy projects, among other issues. In an email interview, Marat Terterov, director and principal founder of the European Geopolitical Forum in Brussels, discussed Russia-Iraq relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Iraq-Russia relations? Marat Terterov: Russia, along with France, was one of Iraq’s closer allies during the 1990s, when Baghdad was heavily isolated and subject to U.N. sanctions. Moscow frequently lent diplomatic support to Baghdad during this period, pushing for the lifting of the oil embargo against Iraq and condemning occasional U.S. and U.K. airstrikes […]

In an extraordinary development, Iran deployed submarines to the Red Sea last week, prompting fears that the Islamic Republic is engaging in another brazen show of strength. Although Tehran has long been convinced of its regional supremacy, this is the first time that Iranian submarines have been sent into the Red Sea — previously off-limits to Iranian naval ships. Reports suggest the submarines are accompanying warships of the Iranian navy’s 14th Fleet, with the ostensible purpose of their mission to collect data in international waters and carry out surveillance against suspicious activity. But there might be more to the deployment […]

Protests have broken out in Belarus after the government made it illegal to export cheese, butter, macaroni and several other food products. The authoritarian regime has also prevented the export of refrigerators, kitchen stoves and gasoline.

On June 10, Robert Gates ended his last major policy speech in Europe as defense secretary with his most public rebuke ever regarding Europeans’ failure to provide adequate defense resources to the trans-Atlantic alliance. Gates complained that NATO had finally become what he had long feared: a “two-tiered alliance” divided between those few allies that engage in “hard” combat missions on one hand, and the overwhelming majority of members that can only contribute extensively to “soft” noncombat operations like humanitarian, peacekeeping and training missions on the other. Gates correctly noted that proposed NATO-wide reforms and efficiency measures would at best […]

Although the United States has been using private contractors in one way or another since the founding of the country, it is the experience of the past decade, since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, that has focused attention on private military and security contractors (PMSCs) to unprecedented levels. The U.S. Defense Department and State Department, as well as other U.S. agencies and other countries, have used contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan both for logistics work, which accounts for the vast majority of contractors, as well as for much more publicized, but numerically far smaller, security roles. As a result, even […]

In the early 1960s, the attempted secession of Katanga, a province in the southern part of today’s Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa, dominated the headlines. The fighting there was perhaps the first expression of a new form of conflict, as it was not a conventional war between states or an independence movement pitting local insurgents against colonial powers, but rather an internal conflict featuring a multitude of nonstate actors. Foreign soldiers and military advisers seconded by Belgium as well as a stream of European mercenaries descended into Katanga. A multinational peacekeeping force deployed to Katanga under a […]

It has been nearly two decades since the international community first focused significant attention on the private military firm as an important actor in conflict. Although quasi-firms and groups of individuals had operated in conflict zones before, a series of high-profile interventions by private military firms in the 1990s served as a watershed moment for the private security industry. In particular, the positive changes to the security environment brought about by private military firms in Angola (1992-1995), Sierra Leone (1995-1999) and Croatia (1994-1996), combined with newfound claims for the firms’ legitimacy as security actors, made the world sit up and […]

Things are not looking good for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The man who built arguably the most stable, authoritarian and centralized administration in the former Soviet Union is now struggling to maintain control. A forced currency devaluation last month wiped out the savings of ordinary citizens, who subsequently took to the streets, plunging Minsk into chaos. Throughout May, Belarus teetered on the brink of economic collapse, and Lukashenko was rumored to be plotting to flee the country. An emergency $3 billion loan package from Russia, technically administered through the Eurasian Economic Community, has stabilized the situation for now, but the […]