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Predictions of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s fall from power have been frequent among Western observers. On this view, events involving two American hikers jailed in Tehran are seen as the latest display of Ahmadinejad’s political impotence in the face of clerical power. But, despite the predictions, and as a few observers outside Iran ha ve realized, Ahmadinejad’s political demise is far from imminent. The president and his appointees have been portrayed as diminished and defeated, and as about to resign or be sacrificed as scapegoats. Some analysts have speculated Ahmadinejad will be arrested on charges of treason for imprudently opposing […]

In the aftermath of the Libya operation, my Naval War College colleague Tom Nichols concluded bluntly, “Humanitarian interventions are here to stay and are going to be driven more by moral calculation and military opportunity than by ‘national interest.’” This, it seems, is the new American foreign policy consensus; despite the costly U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the anti-interventionist coalition has lost the policy debate. The current fiscal crisis may trim back the scale and scope of future interventions, but will not eliminate them altogether from the U.S. policy toolbox. Even with its fiscal constraints, the United States will […]

Last month, Honduras deployed soldiers and police to the province of Colón to quell a series of deadly clashes over land disputes. In an email interview, Orlando J. Pérez, a professor of political science at Central Michigan University, discussed Honduras’ land disputes. WPR: What is the historical background of land ownership and land disputes in Honduras? Orlando J. Pérez: Conflicts over land are common in Honduras, with increased conflict since 2008. Land disputes are a symptom of the broader political, social and economic crises facing Honduras. They reflect the highly unequal nature of the country’s economy and represent yet more […]

British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are the first leaders of Nato countries to make a trip to Libya since Colonel Gaddafi was overthrown.

In his WPR column yesterday, Robert Farley discussed Israel’s strategic options in light of damaged and possibly doomed ties with Turkey and Egypt. But it’s worth noting that an Israel in conflict with two of the United States’ closest regional allies also has significant impact on the United States’ strategic calculus in the Middle East. When two friends get into a dispute that not only resists resolution but actually deepens, one eventually begins to feel pressure to move from trying to mediate to choosing sides. And given the realities of U.S. domestic politics, it’s only a matter of time before […]

The multilateral South American organization UNASUR announced Friday that its members planned to begin pulling troops from the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Haiti, known by its acronym Minustah. “There’s consensus for a gradual withdrawal of troops, consistent with Haiti’s needs,” Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim told the press after the body met in Montevideo, Uruguay. Amorim’s words carry weight. South America contributes the most peacekeepers to Minustah’s 12,000-strong mission, and Brazil leads its forces. But while the announcement may seem to mark the beginning of Minustah’s withdrawal, the mission is far from over. In fact, the Minustah mission is not […]

It wasn’t very long ago when American interest in the Middle East focused with piercing intensity on the minutest of developments in Iraq. Over time, however, the gradual drawdown of U.S. forces, the uprisings in the Middle East and public exhaustion with the draining American misadventure in Mesopotamia conspired to take Baghdad out of the headlines. That is about to change. The coming months will bring Iraq back to the foreground. A number of crucial events and opposing forces are now converging, and they will determine whether Iraq, the country Americans spent so much blood and treasure to turn into […]

The visit to Paris this week of Rwandan President Paul Kagame coincided with coverage in the French press of allegations accusing former French President Jacques Chirac of accepting suitcases full of cash as kickbacks from African heads of state. Combined, the two stories highlight the ways in which France under President Nicolas Sarkozy is turning a page in its relations with Africa, but also the ways in which the legacy of the past has proven hard to escape. In this, Sarkozy’s presidency, like that of U.S. President Barack Obama in its own way, is likely to be a transitional one, […]

Over the past two weeks, Israel has seen two critical strategic relationships with key regional allies nearly collapse. In Cairo, protesters stormed the Israeli Embassy, causing property damage but no injuries. This came on the heels of a border incident in Sinai, in which Israeli soldiers in pursuit of Palestinian militants accidentally killed several Egyptian soldiers. The Israeli government has taken steps to reduce tensions with Egypt, but the ability of the latter’s transitional military government to mend fences is unclear. As for the willingness of any new Egyptian government to spend political capital on maintaining a good relationship with […]

It’s happening again. International credit markets are showing signs of strain; economic growth around the world is stalling; and there are growing fears the global economy could slip back into a recession. Last Friday, amid this unfolding financial turmoil, the Group of Seven (G-7) finance ministers met in Marseille, France. Despite calls from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the group to “act now — and act boldly,” the summit ended without any concrete plan of action. Indeed, the finance ministers could barely even muster a short communique. This contrasts starkly with how the world’s leading economies reacted to similar, […]

Former Guatemalan Army Gen. Otto Perez Molina has emerged as the victor in the first round of the country’s presidential election. He will now go into a November runoff election against business leader and populist Manuel Baldizon, who won 23 percent of the vote Sunday. But the fact that Perez carried 36 percent in the initial round may be a better indicator than any of how eager Guatemalan voters are to begin using the military to combat rampant drug crime in the country. “The No. 1 concern in public opinion going into this election is the security situation,” says Cynthia […]

Turkey’s prime minister has addressed a meeting of the Arab League’s foreign ministers in Cairo, saying recognition of a Palestinian state is an “obligation, and not an option.”

In France, around 25 media rights campaigners were arrested on Tuesday outside the Paris hotel of Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

Syrian activists say at least 11 people have have been killed in various cities on Tuesday. The government’s continued crackdown on protestors has been on the agenda at the Arab League summit in Cairo.

Later this month, the Palestine Liberation Organization is expected to call upon the United Nations to recognize Palestinian statehood based on the 1967 borders. The initiative is not based on any hope that the move will itself bring about a concrete change in conditions in the occupied Palestinian territories. Rather, it is intended to more firmly anchor the principle of a Palestinian state, at a time when Palestinian leaders fundamentally doubt Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution. The move is vehemently opposed by Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arguing that the effort seeks to circumvent the peace process. U.N. […]

China and Nepal recently moved to boost bilateral ties following a visit by high-ranking Chinese Communist Party officials. In an email interview, Abanti Bhattacharya, an associate professor in the department of East Asian studies at the University of Delhi, discussed China-Nepal relations. WPR: What is the recent history of China-Nepal relations? Abanti Bhattacharya: China-Nepal relations experienced a major transformation in March 2006, when China began to urge the Nepali king to reach out to opposition parties to restore peace, indicating China no longer viewed Nepal’s political crisis as an internal affair. With the victory of the Unified Communist Party of […]

A United Nations vote on statehood for Palestine will not determine whether and how a Palestinian state is established and recognized. That will be determined predominantly by the political realities dividing and linking Israel and Palestine. However, regional and global factors may influence the timing and shape of the forthcoming Palestinian state, the extent to which its prospects for peace and prosperity are enhanced and the basis on which its relations with surrounding states are put in place. Since one important area in which exogenous factors may be as important as internal factors in Palestine and Israel is refugee return, […]