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Two great uncertainties define the current succession process in North Korea. First, will the new leadership pursue aggressive or moderate foreign policies? Second, how should foreign countries respond to the new situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)? Given how little we know about North Korea’s internal politics, the first question is difficult to address. Although some indicators of future behavior should emerge in coming weeks, the succession process could take years to evolve. The North Korean regime may continue to muddle through, remaining a military threat to South Korea — and other states — and representing a […]

Will the Arab Spring finally end the European Union’s lethargic approach to the southern Mediterranean and lead to more serious support for democratization? Don’t hold your breath. There are three key reasons why “business as usual” with only cosmetic changes is likely to remain the norm. First and foremost is the fact that Europe is in deep economic and financial crisis. With growing discord between France, Britain and Germany, not only the future of the euro but the very foundations of the European Union are at stake. Consumed by its own existential crisis, a serious rethinking of foreign policy is […]

The “Arab Spring” that started early in 2011 has shaken the entire Middle East. Rulers who had reigned for decades have been toppled; power has changed hands; and the few regimes that are resisting changes are still undergoing tumultuous unrest. Beijing has been forced to face the rapidly changing developments and make adjustments both to monitor the potential repercussions at home and to protect its growing commercial interests in the region. Beijing has responded to the events in the Middle East with tentative policy adjustments aimed at securing domestic stability and minimizing economic losses resulting from the unforseen and sudden […]

After a groundswell of anti-government protests enveloped many corners of North Africa a year ago, observers around the world began to wonder how far this democratic contagion would spread. In particular, many wondered whether northern Africa would inspire its neighbors in sub-Saharan Africa, which share many of the same demographic characteristics found in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including a large percentage of unemployed young people, high food prices and years of oppression and unrealized opportunity at the hand of often-brutal dictators. At the time, political commentators in several corners of Africa seemed optimistic that the Arab Spring […]

Last month, satellite images taken by the private company DigitalGlobe suggested that an explosion at an Iranian military base was much larger than acknowledged by Iranian authorities. In an email interview, Tim Brown, a specialist in commercial satellite imagery at GlobalSecurity.org, discussed the commercial spy-satellite business. WPR: How has the commercial satellite sector evolved over the past decade? Tim Brown: At the start of 2001, there was only one high-resolution satellite in orbit — IKONOS, operated by Space Imaging (now GeoEye). Now there are five companies, operating 15 satellites. About 70 percent of GeoEye’s and DigitalGlobe’s sales have come from […]

Much of what drives America’s current phobias regarding China stems from the dual — and fantastically linear — assumptions of America’s terminal decline and China’s perpetual ascension. We are thus led to believe that China no longer needs the United States and that America, in turn, can do nothing — short of increasing military pressure — to constrain the Middle Kingdom’s rise to global hegemony. On all scores, nothing could be further from the truth. China and the United States suffer a level of strategic interdependency that is vast and shows no signs of reduction. Simply put, America cannot stay […]

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev traveled to Prague earlier this month to sign a deal with Czech President Vaclav Klaus establishing a joint venture on the exchange of civilian nuclear technology. In an email interview, Petr Kratochvíl, deputy director of the Institute of International Relations in Prague, discussed Russia-Czech Republic relations. WPR: What is the nature of Russia-Czech Republic relations since the end of the Cold War? Petr Kratochvíl: Roughly speaking, we can distinguish three fundamental phases. The first covers the period from the Velvet Revolution in 1989 to around 1994 and included the dissolution of both the Warsaw Treaty and […]

The death of around a dozen people over the weekend in Zhanaozen, Kazakhstan, follows months of reported strikes, bombings and other violence in the western part of the country. The exact reasons for the disturbances are unclear. Labor disputes, clan rivalries and resurgent Islamist militancy all seem to be at work. Whatever the causes, Kazakh authorities should heed the warning represented by the violence and ensure that the country’s upcoming legislative elections are free and fair. On Nov. 16, President Nursultan Nazarbayev dissolved Kazakhstan’s national legislature and established Jan. 15, 2012, as the date for the next parliamentary elections. Since […]

With Russia embroiled in mass demonstrations following surprisingly tough and contested Duma elections, the breakaway republic of South Ossetia gripped by ongoing political confusion following its own controversial presidential poll, and separatist Abkhazia coming off recent fiercely contested elections, it may be time to re-evaluate more than a few political tropes in Eurasia. The developments are all the more noteworthy in that they come as Georgia, long portrayed by Western supporters as the region’s consummate reformer, faces an unexpected political showdown that is casting the ostensibly democratic republic’s autocratic contours into sharp relief. In a stunning rebuke to Russian Prime […]

South Ossetia was the scene of protests recently after the breakaway province’s high court invalidated the results of a presidential election in which the Russian-backed candidate, Anatoly Bibilov, was defeated. In an email interview, Lincoln Mitchell, an expert on post-Soviet democracy at Colombia University, discussed South Ossetia’s disputed elections. WPR: What is the immediate background to the post-election crisis in South Ossetia? Lincoln Mitchell: South Ossetia is a small polity viewed as independent by Russia, seen as part of Georgia by most of the world, including Europe and the U.S., and in reality almost entirely controlled by Russia and dependent […]

The Obama administration entered office three years ago with high hopes that it could repair America’s relationships with other key powers in the world. While some successes were achieved in 2009 and 2010, Washington closes out 2011 facing the sobering reality of simultaneously deteriorating relationships with China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Russia. At the same time, Washington can expect only limited support from its major Western allies in managing a host of global hotspots, as the ongoing eurozone crisis has, in a matter of months, turned European attention away from a more activist and interventionist approach to the world toward […]

A nuclear submarine leased from Russia is all set to join the Indian Navy in early 2012. Official sources in New Delhi confirmed today that a Nerpa class nuclear submarine leased by the Indian Navy will leave Russian shores by end of the month. World News Videos by NewsLook

This week in the small Western Saharan town of Tifariti, delegations are arriving for the 13th Conference of the Polisario Front, the United Nations-recognized group that has fought since the 1970s for Western Sahara’s independence from Morocco. The gathering, to be held Dec. 15-20, is expected to draw some 1,500 people from the region, as well as from Asia, Europe and Latin America. It will broach a topic that has otherwise gone largely overlooked in the aftermath of the Arab Spring uprisings that have swept the Middle East and North Africa in the name of greater representation and government accountability: […]

The most striking image from last weekend’s demonstrations in Moscow against the regime of former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is that of protesters holding up iPads and iPhones over their heads, broadcasting the momentous events live over the Internet. The sight of young Russians, bundled up against the Moscow cold, speaking out for democracy via social media brings to mind the wave of political protests that have defined 2011 — from the Arab uprisings in the Middle East, to the Occupy movement in developed economies, and now in Russia. And it raises the question of just how […]

Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov paid a four-day visit to China last month. In an email interview, Kathleen J. Hancock, an associate professor of political science at the Colorado School of Mines, discussed China-Turkmenistan relations. WPR: How have political and economic relations between China and Turkmenistan evolved over the past decade? Kathleen J. Hancock: Since Turkmenistan’s independence in December 1991, its relationship with China has revolved around the supply and demand of natural gas.* While estimates have shifted over time, Turkmenistan is currently estimated to have 265 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, making it the 12th-most-endowed country, according to the […]

Editor’s note: This is the second in a two-part series on India’s strategic engagement in Central Asia. Part one examined ties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Part two examines ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Two decades of Indian engagement with Central Asia have produced relationships that are now poised to move beyond the energy and transit sectors toward more-diversified commercial investments. However, this evolution takes place against the backdrop of NATO’s imminent withdrawal from the region, at a time when India still sees national armies as the most sustainable institutions in Central Asia. In this context, Indian Army chief Gen. V.K. […]

The National Transitional Council of Libya has much on its plate, including most notably rebuilding the country in the wake of civil war while also preparing it for constitutional democracy. However, military challenges still beckon. In addition to residual fighting and managing the demands of competing militias, the Transitional Council is faced with the task of centralizing authority over violence and building a new, modern and professional Libyan military. The rump Libyan military is unlikely to be of much help. Although Moammar Gadhafi cultivated conflict with neighbors and distant foes alike, he relied more on Libya’s vast, inhospitable geography than […]