AKTAU, Kazakhstan — Last week, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev traveled to Germany for the signing of $4 billion worth of economic agreements, exchanging access to Kazakhstan’s stores of rare earths and raw minerals for German technological expertise. Appearing alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Nazarbayev struck a confident figure in deflecting criticisms of the country’s democratic performance. After two decades of independence, Kazakhstan appears to have won its place on the world stage. Going solely by the numbers, Nazarbayev has reason to be confident. Once considered yet another impoverished Central Asian post-Soviet republic, Kazakhstan’s per capita GDP now stands at more […]
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The Russian energy giant Gazprom announced in January that it had signed a deal to double gas purchases from Azerbaijan. In an email interview, Shahriyar Nasirov, a doctoral candidate at the University of the Basque Country and a research fellow in the energy department of the Orkestra-Basque Institute of Competitiveness, discussed Azerbaijan’s energy sector. WPR: How has Azerbaijan’s energy sector evolved over the past 10 years, and what are its current strengths and weaknesses? Shahriyar Nasirov: Azerbaijan’s major strengths are the existence of a stable legal framework and attractive environment for foreign investors in the energy sector, and the provision […]
Despite receiving little attention in the lengthy written testimony (.pdf) presented to the Senate and House intelligence committees’ recent hearings on threats to the United States, the question of the viability of reaching a peace agreement with the Taliban was raised repeatedly in the discusions at the two public sessions. Many in Congress are rightly concerned about the situation in Afghanistan and any nascent peace process. So it is important to understand the specific risks involved in negotiating with the Taliban before Congress’ last annual hearing on worldwide threats to national security takes place Thursday in the Senate Armed Services […]
China announced last month that it will send a contingent to participate in the U.N. peacekeeping mission in South Sudan. In an email interview, Courtney Richardson, a research fellow at the International Security Program at Harvard University’s Belfer Center and a doctoral student at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, discussed China’s peacekeeping deployments. WPR: What is the recent history of China’s involvement in international peacekeeping missions? Courtney Richardson: From the time it assumed its seat at the United Nations Security Council in 1971 until the early 1980s, China was morally opposed to the international peacekeeping regime; it abstained on Security Council […]
While the debate over whether Israel will strike Iran ebbs and flows on an almost weekly basis now, a larger collision-course trajectory is undeniably emerging. To put it most succinctly, Iran won’t back down, while Israel won’t back off, and America will back up its two regional allies — Israel and Saudi Arabia — when the shooting finally starts. There are no other credible paths in sight: There will be no diplomatic miracles, and Iran will not be permitted to achieve a genuine nuclear deterrence. But let us also be clear about what this coming war will ultimately target: regime […]
Although Syria’s Kurds have a long history of opposing the central government in Damascus, they have so far refrained from widespread, proactive participation in the ongoing rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad’s Baathist regime. However, if they continue to limit themselves to being mere spectators to the unfolding drama, they may well find themselves deprived of any long-term political gains in a post-Assad Syria. The Kurds’ forbearance to date does not signal a fear of government repression or an unwillingness to make sacrifices. They have demonstrated such willingness on numerous occasions, most recently in 2004-2005, when clashes between civilian protesters and […]
Russia announced last month that it plans to withdraw its eight helicopters and the 120 personnel who service them from the U.N. peacekeeping mission in South Sudan. In an email interview, Alexander Nikitin, director of the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and president emeritus of the Russian Political Science Association, discussed Russia’s involvement with international peacekeeping. WPR: What has been Russia’s recent involvement in international peacekeeping activities? Alexander Nikitin: Current Russian participation in U.N. peacekeeping operations remains on a quite low level for a great power and a permanent member of the U.N. […]
After a period of healthier ties following the much-heralded reset, U.S.-Russia relations appear to be deteriorating. Whether it was the war of words between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last December over the flaws in the Russian Duma elections, or the harsh language used by U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice after Russia vetoed a draft Security Council resolution last week calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, the optimism engendered by the Obama administration’s reset with Russia has dissipated. Nor does the immediate future bode well for “resetting the reset.” Putin is […]
At last week’s summit, European Union leaders finalized negotiations and adopted the latest chapter of Europe’s paper trail: the “Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union” (.pdf), or in short, the new fiscal compact. While French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel breathe a sigh of relief and declare success, few in the West are focused on what this compact means for the EU’s 10 newest member states in Central Europe (CE-10), the majority of which are not in the eurozone. For these countries, the roller coaster ride ahead will be bumpy. As […]
Beginning with the George W. Bush administration, the U.S. strategic policymaking community has expressed its desire to support India’s emergence as a great power. However, the very fact that these exhortations must be made from time to time reveals the distance the world’s two largest democracies must still travel to truly understand each other. The U.S. continues to struggle with India’s non-alignment impulses, while India continues to see relations in a globalized era as depending on balance of interests, and not balance of power. Indeed, it is this differing approach to globalization that prevents the two countries from fully consolidating […]
It has been frequently noted over the past year that the ongoing turmoil in the Arab world has until now largely spared monarchies in the region. But observers of the region, and its rulers, also know that this state of affairs could suddenly change. As a result, Arab kings and emirs are under pressure to find a new governing formula: reforms that introduce elements of democracy without bringing an end to their rule. Over a number of decades, the emirate of Kuwait has managed to maintain a measure of stability under a system that combines a strong monarchy and an […]
In the weeks after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the Central Intelligence Agency and the United States Special Operations Command sent intelligence officers and special operations forces to Afghanistan, making them the first American boots on the ground. Now, with the official end of the Iraq War and the upcoming withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, it is becoming clear that the first ones in will be the last ones out. As the U.S. military begins to shift away from combat missions in Afghanistan over the coming two years, instead focusing on advising Afghan forces, CIA paramilitary operations officers […]
Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay recently began to share information on national defense spending as part of a Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) initiative aimed at using transparency to maintain peace in the region. In an email interview, W. Alex Sanchez, a research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, discussed UNASUR defense cooperation. WPR: What are the current structures in place within UNASUR for defense cooperation? W. Alex Sanchez: UNASUR’s two main defense bodies are the Defense Council and the Defense Strategic Studies Center. The center, which was created in 2009, is based in Argentina — […]