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Abe Selig, an analyst with Stratfor, explains how the upcoming May 20 NATO summit in Chicago and the recent assassination of a Taliban official are complicating the U.S. goal of withdrawal from Afghanistan. World News Videos by NewsLook

Amid the turmoil that has engulfed the wider Middle East over the course of the past year, Iran has been confronted with numerous challenges and some opportunities. Not surprisingly, the top priority for the Iranian regime remains its own survival. The main threats in this regard stem from external military intervention, internal unrest and increasingly, over the past year, strengthened international sanctions in response to its nuclear program. In order to counter these threats, Iran continues to invest in asymmetric, niche capabilities that play to Iran’s strengths while exploiting the vulnerabilities of its high-tech adversaries. The regime has also embarked […]

On May 2, the United States and Afghanistan signed a new Strategic Partnership Agreement after months of negotiations. In the accord, the United States pledged to support social and economic development, provide security assistance and promote regional cooperation for 10 years beyond the planned 2014 withdrawal date for all U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States will not seek permanent military bases in the country, but can receive access to Afghan facilities. In return, the Afghanistan government committed to strengthen accountability, transparency, the rule of law and human rights for all Afghans, male […]

While attempts to frame Algeria within the Arab Spring narrative have proved unrealistic, some observers thought the country’s May 10 parliamentary elections could present an opportunity for substantive political change. European and American officials lauded President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s invitation to international organizations to send election observers, as well as recently passed “reforms,” as progress toward democracy, likening these moves to Morocco’s top-down reform process enacted at the onset of the regional uprisings. But Algeria’s ability to avoid the upheaval that has swept North Africa over the past year has less to do with a proactive leadership and more to do […]

Residents of two rival neighborhoods in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli cowered in fear on Monday as fresh sectarian clashes erupted linked to the unrest in neighboring Syria. World News Videos by NewsLook

In April, three major Brazilian energy companies announced plans to increase investment in Peruvian natural gas. In an email interview, Thomas Andrew O’Keefe, president of Mercosur Consulting Group, discussed Latin America’s intraregional energy ties. WPR: Historically, how strong has intraregional cooperation been on energy issues in South America, and how is that changing? Thomas Andrew O’Keefe: Intraregional cooperation on energy issues went through a boom period in the 1990s, when there was a widespread regional consensus on letting the market set energy prices and permitting the private sector to take a lead role in developing new pipelines and connecting electricity […]

There has been a flurry of decidedly unpublicized diplomatic activity ahead of the next round of Iran nuclear talks in Baghdad on May 23, much of it taking place in the shadows. The European Union’s Helga Schmid and Iran’s Ali Bagheri — the no. 2 nuclear negotiators for the P5+1 and Iran, respectively — met quietly this past week to begin preparing the agenda for the Baghdad meeting. In keeping with the conviction that progress can be more easily achieved outside the glare of the spotlights, European diplomatic sources who confirmed the meeting would only say that it did not […]

In the run-up to the next round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group on May 23 in Baghdad, reports have suggested that Tehran is prepared to make substantive concessions on its uranium enrichment program. Political paralysis in Tehran, however, will be an obstacle to reaching any definitive decision, meaning the Baghdad talks could prove as inconclusive as previous ones. Not that Iran doesn’t need a deal. Crude oil exports are at a 20-year low due to the threat of U.S. financial sanctions on third-party purchasers. Domestic supplies of gasoline are in short supply, too, as rising sanctions prevent […]

The leaders of China, Japan and South Korea, which together account for 20 percent of global GDP, will meet in Beijing this weekend for their fifth annual trilateral summit. The summit is intended to enhance cooperation in a wide range of areas, including security issues, but it will focus mainly on trade. Before leaving for Beijing, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda expressed his hope that the three leaders would announce the start of negotiations for a trilateral free trade agreement. But Claude Barfield, a resident scholar and international trade policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute, and Richard C. Bush […]

Washington has condemned the double car bombings that occured Thursday in the Syrian capital, the worst attack in Damascus since the uprising began. World News Videos by NewsLook

The announcement last week that the U.S. is doubling its foreign aid to the Philippines came as the U.S. ally remains locked in a maritime standoff with China over a territorial dispute in the South China Sea. In an email interview, Richard D. Fisher, Jr., a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, discussed U.S.-Philippines military cooperation. WPR: In what concrete ways is U.S.-Philippines military cooperation being expanded in response to the Philippines’ territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea? Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: After nearly 20 years of U.S. and mainly Philippine indifference following the […]

A fascinating display of diplomatic balancing occurred this past week in New Delhi. At the same time that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in India to urge the Indian government to tighten sanctions on Iran, an Iranian trade delegation was there exploring ways to circumvent those very sanctions. Over the past year, India has found creative ways to “split the middle” in attempting to maintain good relations with both Washington and Tehran. State-owned refineries have reduced the amount of oil they purchase from Iran, in an effort to bring India into compliance with U.S. legislation that calls for […]

El Salvador, only recently home to the world’s second-highest homicide rate, has watched murders plummet by 60 percent since early March. The unprecedented decline, however, is not the result of conventional policies aimed at eliminating criminal activity, but rather a very different development: a negotiated truce between the country’s two leading gangs, the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18. On March 9, some 30 gang leaders were moved to lower security prisons to engage in discussions led by the Catholic Church and a former congressman. El Salvador’s online investigative journal El Faro broke the story on March 14, and the […]

Canada’s efforts to join the negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement received a boost last month when Chile agreed to support Canadian participation. In an email interview, Laura Dawson, president of Dawson Strategic, discussed Canada’s attempt to join the negotiations. WPR: What are Canada’s motivations — political and economic — to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and how receptive are the current members to Canada’s membership bid? Laura Dawson: The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the focal point of Canada’s external trade strategy. While three-quarters of Canadian exports still go the United States, future growth depends on trade with emerging markets […]

Despite parallel histories and a concerted push on both sides to forge lasting ties over the past decade, it is apparent today that Georgia and Israel face very different geopolitical concerns and increasingly conflicting national interests. Indeed, their partnership, which once seemed so natural, now looks permanently derailed. After Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution propelled a new generation of Western-educated modernizers to power in Tbilisi, the country sought to leverage its 130,000-strong diaspora in Israel for investments and partnership. Georgian officials praised Israel as a model and frequently drew comparisons between Israel’s difficult journey to statehood and Georgia’s ongoing conflicts with […]

Announcements made at 2:30 a.m. usually come as a surprise, and the one made Tuesday night by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was no exception. Israelis rubbed their eyes, trying to make sure they had heard correctly: Netanyahu upended the country’s political chessboard by making a deal with the largest opposition party. Early elections, which had been expected in September, were canceled. Suddenly, Israel no longer has a rightist government. Most importantly, the deal with Shaul Mofaz, the newly elected head of the centrist Kadima party, has pulled the rug out from under the extreme-right parties. This is one for […]

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has wrapped up her latest trip to Asia, which included stops in China, Bangladesh and India, where she met with government officials to review the strategic partnership between India and the United States. She emphasized that the countries must expand trade and investment, deepen security cooperation, promote a shared vision for the region and, she told the media in Delhi, “meet the challenges and seize the opportunities in South and Central Asia.” But Stephen Cohen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Trend Lines there have been no major changes in the U.S.-Indian […]