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Delivering a speech directed at his new government on state television, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said his country was in “a real state of war.” World News Videos by NewsLook

The sudden death last week of Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Nayyif, the heir apparent to King Abdullah, caught many by surprise. But the latest royal shuffle, which sees Prince Salman becoming the new crown prince, and the even bigger transition expected to occur in the near future given the poor health of the 88-year-old king will likely feature far greater continuity and stability than the political transformations occurring in Egypt and other Arab countries. The purported ideological tug-of-war taking place inside the royal family is a central theme of much of the commentary on Saudi succession scenarios, with the “reactionaries” […]

India is currently finalizing a $500 million contract with South Korean arms manufacturer Kangnam for eight minesweeper vessels. In an email interview, Rajaram Panda, an expert on East Asia and former senior fellow at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, discussed ties between India and South Korea. WPR: What is the current state of trade and defense ties between India and South Korea, and how have they evolved over the past several years? Rajaram Panda: India-South Korea relations have been developing based on three important pillars. First, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, signed in 2009 and […]

The European Union’s solidarity vs. sovereignty game of chicken goes another round this week with the EU Council meeting on June 28, and its key actors are France and Germany. France, and others, are seeking a banking union and ultimately eurobonds; German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants collective oversight on spending beforehand. Who gives in first is the crux of this negotiation, and it boils down to a question of trust. My take on the subject at this stage of the events: Trust Germany — and hope that France does, too. I already explained last week in this column that the […]

Pakistan’s parliament elected Raja Pervez Ashraf prime minister today, after the Supreme Court disqualified and unseated former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. The high court justices confirmed Gilani’s April conviction for contempt of court over his refusal to request that Switzerland reopen a corruption investigation against Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, as the court had ordered him to do in 2009. Shahab Usto, a lawyer and academic based in Karachi, Pakistan, told Trend Lines that the developments are part of a feud between the country’s executive and judiciary branches that will only worsen in the run-up to general elections, which […]

The G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, proved to be far from a diplomatic triumph for U.S. President Barack Obama. Coming on the heels of previous lackluster international gatherings this year — the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, the NATO summit in Chicago and the G-8 meeting at Camp David — it raises the question of whether Washington’s ability to lead in the global system has been compromised. Obama has eschewed attending the Rio+20 “Green Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, a wise choice given that the meeting is also not likely to produce any dramatic breakthroughs. Some of the […]

As President Barack Obama’s first term in office draws to a close, attention has naturally turned to assessing his foreign policy record over the past four years. And while partisan debates in the run-up to November’s election are certain to feature more caricature than reasoned argument, even nonpartisan observers diverge when it comes to Obama’s foreign policy legacy to date, as recent articles by George Packer, Conor Friedersdorf and Daniel Larison demonstrate. The challenge is less identifying Obama’s successes and failures than determining the costs of the trade-offs he has made. Broadly speaking, the Obama team’s clearest policy successes have […]

In talks over its suspected nuclear weapons program, Iran has repeated urged the international community to respect its “inalienable right” to peaceful nuclear technology. In an email interview, Leonard Spector, the deputy director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies’ James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, discussed Iran’s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. WPR: What is the legal basis for Iran’s claim to a “right” to nuclear energy technologies and capabilities? Leonard Spector: Iran is relying on Article IV of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which states that nothing in the treaty should be interpreted to affect the inalienable […]

After three days of fighting with Israel, the military wing of Hamas announced Wednesday that it was ready to accept a cease-fire brokered by Egypt. The exchange of Israeli airstrikes and Hamas rocket fire followed an Israeli retaliation against a Palestinian attack launched from the Egyptian-ruled Sinai Peninsula, which has seen a rise in violence amid that country’s broader upheaval. Yoram Meital, chair of the Chaim Herzog Center for Middle East Studies and Diplomacy at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, told Trend Lines that if the fighting in the Israel-Gaza-Egypt border junction continues, all three sides could be pulled into […]

Less than a month after Nepal’s Constituent Assembly was dissolved following its failure to draft a new constitution despite three extensions, the country’s largest and ruling Maoist party split this week. Discord and delay have characterized the country’s ongoing peace process since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord between the government and Maoist rebels in November 2006. They have now led to a political crisis that has disillusioned citizens and made neighboring India and China edgy. The split in the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist is expected to exacerbate Nepal’s already bumpy transition from a Hindu monarchy to a […]

Qatar announced earlier this month that it plans to contribute $1.5 billion to the new Gulf Development Fund established by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in December to aid nonmembers Jordan and Morocco. In an email interview, Steffen Hertog, a lecturer in comparative politics at the London School of Economics, discussed the GCC’s development activities. WPR: What is driving the GCC’s interest in enhancing ties with Jordan and Morocco, and what role will the Gulf Development Fund play in these efforts? Steffen Hertog: The primary motivation seems to be the defense of conservative Arab monarchies in the face of regional […]

The early weeks of the Arab uprisings of 2011 led many to believe that the fast-spreading protest movements were ushering in a new age of nonviolent democratic change in the region. Not surprisingly, the exuberant and initially successful uprisings were optimistically labeled the “Arab Spring.” Events have since unfolded in a much less utopian fashion. The early chapters, as we now know, represented just one phase of what would become a complicated process, full of detours, bloodshed and Machiavellian maneuvers. More recently, the violence in Syria and the blatantly anti-democratic developments in Egypt have highlighted the sharply different ways in […]

Tens of thousands of Sudanese have flooded into South Sudan in the last month, fleeing the bombing and burning of their villages. World News Videos by NewsLook

Earlier this month, the European Union agreed to create the European Cybercrime Center based at the EU’s joint police body, Europol. In an email interview, Dominik Brodowski, a lecturer in the law faculty at Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, discussed the EU’s efforts to fight cybercrime. WPR: What mechanisms does the European Union already have in place to prevent, detect and prosecute cyber crimes, and what are the shortcomings? Dominik Brodowski: Actually, the union’s 27 member states prevent and prosecute cybercrimes — not the European Union itself. As the EU strives to provide an area of freedom, security and justice, though, […]

The elections in Egypt are over. Their conclusion marks the passing not only of Egypt’s democratic experiment but also of a grand opportunity to confront larger questions regarding Islam and society. As one of the more able chroniclers of the aborted Egyptian revolution puts it, what started with “one hell of a bang” is ending with a whimper. First, the presidential election’s wide-open first round left voters with two candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, who together deflated whatever enthusiasm most Egyptians still had for democracy. Morsi was the second-choice candidate for the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization whose popularity in […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examined a best-case scenario. Part II examines a worst-case scenario. SHANGHAI — China’s fifth-generation leadership cadre will assume office later this year at a critical and perilous juncture in the country’s socio-economic development. They do so against a backdrop of weak global economic growth and growing geopolitical uncertainty in North Korea, Iran and multiple Central Asian states. Moreover, the U.S. is on a […]

A Pentagon official says the US believes three Russian ships carrying supplies and possibly personnel will be departing for Syria and the US has no reason to believe they are headed anywhere other than Russia’s naval base in Tartus. World News Videos by NewsLook