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A car bomb killed at least eight people Friday in Beirut, Lebanon, including Wissam al-Hassan, the country’s head of police intelligence and one of the more powerful opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Hassan’s assassination threatens to further polarize a country where tensions were already running high due to the civil war next door. Julien Barnes-Dacey, a senior policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Trend Lines that while the Syrian conflict is clearly exacerbating divisions within Lebanon, until now, the country has shown a greater degree of […]

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney recently released a list of several hundred retired generals and admirals who have joined the “Romney for President Military Advisory Council.” There is nothing unusual about such a list. Many presidential candidates roll out endorsements from high-profile former officers to demonstrate that as commander-in-chief, they would have the support of the military’s senior leaders. What did raise some eyebrows was the inclusion on Romney’s list of retired Army Gen. Tommy Franks. Writing for Mother Jones, Adam Weinstein said, “If you’re a presidential candidate looking to establish your national security cred with a war-weary American public, […]

In late-September, Sen. Joe Lieberman detailed a significant and sustained Iranian attack on U.S. banks in retaliation for the Stuxnet virus, which the U.S. all but admitted had been used to attack Iran’s nuclear program. In October, Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, spoke circumspectly about a new cyberthreat from an “unusual source.” Then, on Oct. 11, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned of America’s unpreparedness for a major cyberattack, raising the specter of a cyber Pearl Harbor. The message was clear: The United States is engaged in a cyber conflict. Alarmingly, however, the […]

In a reshuffling of the constituencies that elect board members at the International Monetary Fund, Colombia has left a group led by Brazil for one led by Mexico, while Western European countries opted to give more say to smaller European economies. In an email interview, Edwin M. Truman, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussed the changes in IMF constituencies. WPR: What prompted the reshuffling of voting groups at the IMF? Edwin M. Truman: The reshuffling of voting groups, or constituencies, on the 24-seat IMF executive board was prompted by two developments. First, at the Seoul G-20 […]

As a general rule, foreign policy issues do not significantly impact U.S. presidential elections. And if public opinion polls are any indication, this year is no exception, with surveys consistently showing little interest among American voters for foreign policy. Nonetheless, there are several reasons why yesterday’s foreign policy debate between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney could matter more, perhaps a lot more, than is traditionally the case. In what is a very close race, the previous two debates appeared to have had an impact on voters’ intentions. Indeed, the first debate proved decisive in allowing Romney to […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on the implications of the African National Congress’ decline for South Africa’s political landscape. Part I examined the factors contributing to the ANC’s decline. Part II examines the prospects for the opposition Democratic Alliance to become an alternative governing party. The African National Congress (ANC) is trapped in a systemic crisis from which it cannot extricate itself. Consequently, the wellbeing of South African democracy requires a shift from the current one-party dominant system to a more competitive multiparty system. One route to this outcome is through the fragmentation of the […]

Last week, the naval forces of Turkey and Egypt completed joint military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, the latest sign of warming ties between the two former rivals, in what the New York Times said could be “a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East.” Egypt is looking to Turkey as a guide after emerging from authoritarian rule and economic devastation, while Turkey is working to expand its influence in the region after years of pushing for closer ties with Europe. But the big question now, according to Paul J. Sullivan, a Middle East security expert at Georgetown University and […]

Yesterday’s regional elections in Spain’s Basque region have demonstrated again the strength of blood ties and the resurgence of localism in a time of globalization. People are increasingly seeking protection close to home, an urge that seems light years away from the European Union’s postmodern supranational ambitions. The good news is that, these days, the push for local autonomy comes without violence. But if the Basque country has moved beyond the separatist terrorism of the ETA, the strong showing by the pro-independence party Bildu means that assertive regionalism now means taking over real political responsibility. It is no longer a […]

A media court in Iran found the Tehran bureau chief of Reuters guilty of propaganda-related crimes late last month. In an email interview, Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University, discussed the climate of dissent in Iran. WPR: What is the current climate for dissent in Iran, in terms of press freedoms and political discourse, and how has this evolved over the past few years? Ali Ansari: The high-water mark of press freedom and activism in Iran occurred during the first Khatami administration, which began in 1997. These freedoms were gradually rolled back starting […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on the implications of the African National Congress’ decline for South Africa’s political landscape. Part I examines the factors contributing to the ANC’s decline. Part II will examine the prospects for the opposition Democratic Alliance to become an alternative governing party. Despite President Jacob Zuma’s claim that the African National Congress (ANC) will rule South Africa “until Jesus comes again,” the party, which celebrates its 100th anniversary this year, is on an irreversible downward electoral trajectory. Its support fell for the first time in a general election in 2009 and […]

On Tuesday, the Cuban government announced that it would ease the highly restrictive travel laws it has kept in place for more than 50 years. Beginning next year, Cubans will no longer need an exit visa to leave the island, requiring instead only a passport and a visa for their destination country. Two experts spoke with Trend Lines about the impact the reforms will have. “The big question is how many Cubans will now rush to leave the island,” Ted Piccone, senior fellow and deputy director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, wrote Trend Lines in an email, adding […]

In George Lucas’ dystopian 1971 film, “THX-1138,” the protagonist is pursued by police after attempting to escape from a futuristic totalitarian city-state. However, the city has only budgeted a certain amount to cover the costs of the pursuit. In the penultimate scene, as the officers are about to recapture the renegade, the comptroller’s office informs them that because of cost overruns, the chase is to be terminated. “Economics make it necessary to terminate any operation which exceeds five percent of its primary budget,” the officers are told. With the specter of sequestration — which on Jan. 1, 2013, is set […]

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s recent address to the Business Executives for National Security conference in New York revisited an old metaphor of the cybersecurity game: a Pearl Harbor-esque surprise attack on the nation’s computer systems. Though the fears that Panetta invoked of a massive cyber attack on the United States may be overblown, there are valid reasons for concern. As Panetta highlighted, foreign powers are increasingly going on the offensive in cyberspace, with two of the world’s most important industries, energy and banking, recently coming under assault. His speech signals that, for the Department of Defense, cyberattacks have likely […]

Irish President Michael Higgins visited Argentina, Brazil and China this month in an effort to boost economic ties with the region. In an email interview, Frank Barry, chair of international business and economic development at Trinity College Dublin, discussed Ireland’s trade strategy. WPR: What are the key sectors and partner countries for Irish trade? Frank Barry: One needs to distinguish between exports of Irish-owned (indigenous) companies and those of the foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) that use Ireland as an export platform from which to sell primarily into the European Union. Some 80 percent of total Irish exports are accounted for […]

KAMPALA, Uganda — Following months of heated exchanges between international observers and Rwandan officials, a United Nations investigative body leveled its most detailed and controversial accusations over alleged Rwandan support for the Congolese M23 rebels in a 44-page report leaked late Tuesday. The document claims that Rwandan Defense Minister Gen. James Kabarebe exercises direct command over the rebel group. Formerly integrated into the Congolese army, M23 launched a mutiny in April, carving a significant swathe of territory out of the volatile, crisis-prone eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo ever since. The Ugandan government is also implicated in […]

The United Nations General Assembly meets today to elect five new nonpermanent members of the Security Council. Although the winners will not begin their terms until January, the U.N. is approaching the end of two turbulent years in which three major powers — Germany, India and South Africa — have held temporary seats in the council, playing prominent roles in its debates over Libya and Syria. All three aspire to permanent seats in the forum, but have no choice but to head for the exit. (Colombia and Portugal are also off.) When the trio of powers won seats on the […]

Benjamin Netanyahu will soon face Israeli voters again. And in a curious coincidence, the Israeli prime minister, who took office just a few weeks after Barack Obama did in the U.S., will see his fate decided at the polls Jan. 22, 2013, exactly two days after the U.S. presidential inauguration in Washington, where Obama may or may not be taking the oath of office again. In contrast with the American election, however, the race in Israel does not look close. The pundits agree that Netanyahu will handily beat his rivals, with his Likud party winning the most seats and his […]