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China’s restriction of global access to its deposits of rare earth elements starting in 2010 changed the status of these materials in the global economy, creating new diplomatic alliances across Asia and increasing the importance of mining in trade agreements. A series of trade agreements in Central and Southeast Asia, announced over the past month, reveal the ways manufacturers and mining conglomerates are coping with potential shortages two years after China’s rare earth consolidation. Nevertheless, difficulties inherent to extraction and processing mean that delays will hamper access to new sources of rare earth supplies even when supported by strong investments. […]

Czech Prime Minister Czech Petr Necas announced plans earlier this month to significantly increase Czech nuclear power production by building new reactors at existing nuclear plants. In an email interview, Andrej Nosko, a doctoral student at Central European University, discussed the Czech energy sector. WPR: What is the breakdown of Czech energy consumption, in terms of fuel types and sources? Andrej Nosko: The majority of Czech final energy consumption is comprised of domestic solid fuels (12 percent), imported petroleum and products (26 percent), gases (26 percent) and electricity (19 percent). Electricity is generated mostly by coal-powered plants, which rely heavily […]

At a summit meeting earlier this month, leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) extended the mandate of a small peacekeeping force in Guinea-Bissau that was put in place after a coup in the West African state in April. In an email interview, Lars Rudebeck, a professor emeritus of political science at Uppsala University in Sweden, discussed ECOWAS’ mission in Guinea-Bissau.* WPR: What is the composition of the ECOWAS force in Guinea-Bissau, and what are its goals? Lars Rudebeck: The force is made up of around 600 soldiers from Burkina Faso, Senegal and Togo, according to ECOWAS. […]

The most alarming development cited in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest quarterly report (.pdf) on Iran’s nuclear program is that Tehran is preparing to double the number of high-intensity centrifuges in operation at its Fordow fuel enrichment plant from the current 700 to 1,400. The situation at Fordow, which has been the focus of the past year’s international nuclear talks with Iran, has created a two-fold nuclear breakout problem. First, having learned how to increase the concentration of enriched uranium to 20 percent, Iran’s nuclear workers can more easily manufacture weapons-grade uranium, which involves further enriching the uranium to […]

For a man who regularly receives disturbing reports from war zones, last week was a particularly bad one for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. As fighting escalated in Gaza and rebel forces launched new offensives in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo — where U.N. peacekeepers are on the front line — Ban also had to manage the fallout from an internal report (.pdf) on the U.N.’s performance during the final phase of the Sri Lankan civil war in 2009. The report tells an appalling story. U.N. officials in Sri Lanka, the report shows, avoided confronting the government over the fierce […]

In the early 1970s, demographers began to spot a new pattern of human behavior that they had never seen before. In 1970, when Sweden, Finland and Denmark conducted their annual tallies of births and deaths for the previous year, the numbers suggested that young adults were having so few children that they would not succeed in replacing their generation. This finding contradicted all reigning theories of human population. Until then, demographers, as well as thinking people in general, had always believed that human beings would inevitably produce more than enough children to sustain the population — at least until plague, […]

When assigning homework exercises for a survey course that I teach on American foreign policy, I tell my students that no matter how strong the arguments they use to defend their positions, if they neglect to examine how demographic trends will affect their proposals, they will get an F. What is true for my students is true for global policymakers: Demographic trends will shape our future in a much more profound sense than most of the developments we see on the front page of the New York Times. Four major demographic trends in particular will shape the global security landscape […]

Commentary on generational conflict and the radicalism of youth goes back at least as far as the ancient Greeks — from the tragedies of Oedipus to the comedies of Aristophanes, we find the younger generation contesting the power and morals of their elders. Such conflict is probably always present to some degree in every family and every generation. Yet the coalescence of individual youthful impatience with the ways of the older generation into social movements of rebellion or revolution is something that happens more rarely and only when certain economic, political and social conditions prevail. It is far too simple, […]

In a speech at the Asia Society in New York this September, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar laid out a foreign policy agenda that she described as Pakistan’s “regional pivot” within Asia. Khar explained that Pakistan would now pay more attention to building and stabilizing relations within its immediate region. In arguing that Pakistan was on the path to normalizing relations with its neighbors, Khar pointed to Islamabad’s pursuit of policies that privileged enhanced trade relations and energy cooperation over zero-sum security competitions. For many in attendance the speech was both surprising and intriguing. The ruling Pakistan People’s Party […]

Last week saw the largest general strikes to date against austerity policies in Southern Europe. In Portugal, Spain and Greece, but also in Belgium, public services were shut down for a whole day, with hospitals and airports closed, and street traffic almost nonexistent. Public mobilization was most impressive in Athens, Barcelona and Madrid, but a few cities in France also saw public demonstrations, especially of young people, against both cuts in social welfare and retirement benefits and tax increases. Without a doubt, the past three years of crisis and economic retraction has produced awful social distortions in Southern Europe, and […]

Russia dispatched a three-vessel squadron to join its anti-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia earlier this month. In an email interview, Thomas Fedyszyn, a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, discussed Russia’s anti-piracy operations. WPR: What is the current size and scope of Russia’s anti-piracy efforts in the Horn of Africa? Thomas Fedyszyn: The Russian Federation Navy (RFN) has conducted anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa since 2008. The minimal force is composed of one ocean-going surface combatant with helicopters, an oiler (tanker) and a seagoing tug. Each of Russia’s four fleets has […]

This week’s high-level U.S.-Australia defense and security consultations, which saw U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and their Australian counterparts, Bob Carr and Stephen Smith, meet in Perth Wednesday and Thursday, took place against the backdrop of domestic debate in Australia over defense procurement and the primacy of the Australia, New Zealand, United States (ANZUS) alliance in Australia’s strategic calculus. In a November 2011 visit to Australia, U.S. President Barack Obama announced increased military cooperation between the two nations as part of the United States’ wider repositioning in Asia. The Australian government is unwavering […]

In the euphoric glow that inevitably descends after a hard-won electoral victory, it is very easy to get caught up in the excitement of possibilities. Indeed, the mood of some supporters of U.S. President Barack Obama following his re-election was that happy days are, if not here again, then at least near again: The economy is recovering, and all of the wishes put on hold during the first term, especially once the election campaign was in full swing, could now be put back on track. As a result, Obama now faces a double dose of temptation. The first is natural […]

Following days of rocket attacks into southern Israel, Israel launched a series of deadly airstrikes in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, killing Hamas military leader Ahmed Jabari amid a broader military campaign. Coming against the backdrop of warming relations between Hamas and other regional powers, the offensive is testing Israel’s relations with key U.S. allies such as Egypt, which promptly recalled its ambassador to Israel. Mouin Rabbani, an independent Middle East analyst based in Jordan, and Nathan Thrall, an analyst with the Middle East program of the International Crisis Group based in Israel, both told Trend Lines in email interviews […]

British Prime Minister David Cameron traveled to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates last week in an effort to promote sales of the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet. In an email interview, Rosemary Hollis, a professor of Middle East policy studies at City University London, discussed relations between the U.K. and the Persian Gulf states. WPR: What is the state of diplomatic and economic relations between the U.K. and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states? Rosemary Hollis: British economic and diplomatic relations with the GCC states are intertwined. Fully aware of this, British Prime Minister David Cameron recently visited the […]

The Chinese Communist Party’s ability to manage public opinion is second only to the strength of economic development in determining the survival of the regime. As China officially unveils its next generation of leaders, the experience of the past decade shows a party-state struggling to adapt to a fast-changing media landscape. Throughout the reform era, the CCP has promoted the media’s role of guiding public opinion in both theory and practice. The speeches of China’s top officials concerning the media emphasized its role in providing “guidance.” Meanwhile, the party-state increased the status and responsibility of the Central Propaganda Department (CPD). […]

Over the past 20 months, the world has watched the conflict in Syria with concern, even horror, but without taking meaningful action to intervene in the continuing carnage. Now, however, as the Syrian civil war draws exchanges of fire across the borders with Israel, Turkey and other neighboring countries, the conflict is approaching a crucial line. This tipping point, once reached, is likely to spur a much more urgent and determined international effort to push the crisis toward a resolution that brings an end to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Western nations have condemned the bloodshed, provided humanitarian […]